JEDDAH, 24 December — For the second straight year, the Kingdom will experience less-than-average rainfall this coming rainy season (December-April), and the resulting drought will have far reaching economic and social consequences, according to a report by the Meteorological and Environmental Protection Administration (MEPA).

A longer period of drought could force farmers to have water delivered to irrigate their crops and trees. They may also have to sell off their livestock because of higher fodder prices. Many nomads and villagers may find themselves driven toward the big cities to seek a living, thus tipping the demographic balance of the Kingdom and undermining its two main productive sectors: agriculture and livestock.

The report says that all indications suggest that most parts of the Kingdom will have little if any rain during the period extending from late December to January and from March to April.

"The drop in rainfall will be extreme in the northern and central areas of the Red Sea coast, the northwestern, the interior western sectors extending into the interior and the mountainous regions and their slopes. Other parts of the country will have less than average rainfall. The forecasts also show temperatures higher than the average during this season as a result of fewer cold fronts," the report, issued by MEPA Data Center, added.

MEPA Chairman, Turki ibn Nasser ibn Abdul Aziz, said in the wake of extreme weather fluctuations that continue to grip most parts of the world and the resulting negative socio-economic effects, MEPA has embarked on establishing a regional early warning and monitoring center to study drought trends. The center will facilitate the exchange of data and programs and comes in response to requests from regional and international organizations.

The report said that as a result of dwindling water levels in the southern and western highlands, some wells could dry up completely by mid-2002, as could a number of dams in the region. These are found in areas extending from Ballahmar and Ballasmar in Asir to Balharith and Bani Malik in the southern corner of Taif region. The production of some wells is expected to reduce to less than 10 cubic meters per day, compared to 60 cubic meters per day in the past.

"Vegetation cover will shrink further and agriculture, animal wealth, wildlife and the environment in general will suffer," warned Dr. Saad ibn Muhammad Mahlafi, director of MEPA Research and Forecast Department and head of the Research Center.

The area that will be most affected by the drop in rainfall is Bisha, where the subsiding water level at King Fahd Dam will have a detrimental effect on the palm trees. Many parts of the region are already experiencing a sharp drop in underground water levels, with the spell of dryness slowly extending to areas that used to enjoy abundant water supply.

In high areas, where rain is anxiously awaited by farmers, the effect will be overwhelming. According to the report, some farmers have resorted to transporting water by trucks from far-off places to irrigate their crops.

"If there is no substantial rainfall in these areas during spring, rain that comes afterward will not help. Palm farms will be hard hit, especially in Bisha, the southern parts of the Central Region and the coastal areas. Watermelon farms along the coastal areas will also suffer."

The report recommends urgent precautionary measures by the Ministry of Agriculture and Water and other departments. These include reducing water consumption, advising farmers against growing crops that consume large quantities of water (like fodder and sorghum), advising against deepening wells to avoid increasing salinity rates, and saving water presently in dams.

The report painted a bleak picture for the vegetation cover that depends heavily on rainfall for nourishment. The vegetation cover will be deeply affected and the situation will further be compounded by the arrival of the dry season.

Given the successive waves of drought that struck the Kingdom since 1985, the cycle of which was only broken by the medium rains recorded in the 1999/2000 season, the vegetation cover stands to suffer a great deal this season.

Although trees that grow wildly in the Kingdom have the ability to withstand the harsh desert environment, successive droughts can weaken their ability to survive.