From Pakistan to Texas, big rains after extreme heat deliver double punch

This aerial photograph taken on September 1, 2022 shows flooded residential areas after heavy monsoon rains in Dera Allah Yar town of Jaffarabad district, Balochistan province. (AFP)
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Updated 02 September 2022
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From Pakistan to Texas, big rains after extreme heat deliver double punch

  • Sweltering spring temperatures in South Asia, topping 50°C, are likely to have warmed Indian Ocean
  • That warm water would then have fueled what the UN secretary-general called ‘monsoon on steroids’

LONDON: While Pakistanis count the cost of one of the country’s worst recorded floods, heavy rain is hitting southwestern China as the Texas city of Dallas recovers from a 10-inch deluge in a single day last month.

Each of these rain-fueled disasters followed a heatwave, suggesting the regions have been swinging wildly between two contradictory extremes. But extreme heat and extreme rainfall are closely related — and being gassed-up by climate change, scientists say.

Sweltering spring temperatures in South Asia, topping 50 degrees Celsius, are likely to have warmed the Indian Ocean. That warm water would then have fueled what the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres this week called “a monsoon on steroids” over Pakistan – dumping more than three times as much rain as the 30-year average for August and inundating a third of the country.

More than 1,100 people have been killed, crops are ruined, and homes destroyed, prompting urgent pleas for aid.

It will take weeks if not months to determine exactly how much of a role climate change may have played in this year’s floods, but scientists agree it is supercharging extremes. Heatwaves are already more frequent and intense worldwide, increasing evaporation from both the land and the ocean. Because a warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture, the water vapor builds until clouds eventually break and send down heavier rain.

“The same places can be expected to experience both flooding and drought in a hotter climate,” said climate scientist Deepti Singh at Washington State University.

The area around Dallas had been bone dry for three months, with more than half of Texas suffering extreme drought. Cotton crops withered in the fields. Ranchers were forced to kill off much of their cattle for lack of feed. Soils hardened and cracked, forming a parched checkerboard across the landscape – the perfect setup for flash flooding.

It eventually rained on Aug. 21, dropping nearly 10 inches within 24 hours, but the ground was too hard to absorb the deluge, leaving much of the water to flow through the city. Interstate traffic came to a halt. Flights were canceled. And apartments in the historic area of Old East Dallas were swamped.

In a drought-stricken area, “the ground can almost act like concrete in an urban environment,” said climate scientist Liz Stephens at the University of Reading in Britain.

Unlike flooding that comes from rivers gradually overflowing their banks, flash floods are triggered by intense rain in a short period – usually less than six hours – giving little warning before the water swells into a raging torrent. In an urban population center, they pose the most risk. But flash floods also often rip through desert canyons in Utah and Arizona, threatening hikers.

There have been four other major flash floods in the United States since July – in Kentucky, eastern Illinois, California’s Death Valley and the Missouri city of St. Louis. Each saw enough rain to be considered a once-in-1,000-years event, according to historical trends.

It’s unclear how far that frequency will increase as the world continues warming.

Hit over the summer by its worst heatwave in six decades, China’s drought-stricken Yangtze River Basin is struggling with both power and water shortages. Desperate for rain, some provinces within the basin have begun “seeding” clouds, sending planes into the sky to release the chemical silver iodide to cause the clouds to break.

But as late summer rains arrive now, officials are worried about having too much water. More than 119,000 people have been evacuated from flood-risk areas of southwestern China, according to state media.

The Ministry of Emergency Management warned on Monday that parts of China were “alternating between drought and flood” and urged vigilance this week in monitoring dried-up riverbeds being inundated by intense rain. The ministry also asked that local authorities store rainwater, to potentially help relieve other drought-stricken areas of the country.

Weather events across the northern hemisphere can also be connected by the polar jet stream, a fast-flowing air current that moves weather systems from one part of the world to another.

But scientists have found that warming trends along with recent disturbances in air circulation may be increasing the chances of simultaneous extremes.

The jet stream disturbance is still a topic of intense research. But one recent study suggested that these factors combined have made it seven times more likely for heatwaves to be occurring simultaneously in the northern hemisphere than 40 years ago, according to the research published in January in the Journal of Climate.

“The warming trend is the main driver behind the increase in concurrent heatwaves,” said climate scientist Kai Kornhuber at Columbia University in New York, who was part of a team including Singh that worked on the study.

But there is evidence, including the research around the jet stream, “to believe that atmospheric dynamics have contributed to this increasing trend.”


Pakistan making diplomatic efforts to de-escalate Middle East tensions, FM says

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Pakistan making diplomatic efforts to de-escalate Middle East tensions, FM says

  • The statement came as Iran pressed on with a third day of strikes in the Gulf in response to US-Israeli air raids
  • Pakistan’s position is clear that all countries must abide by principles of UN Charter, international law, FM says

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is making diplomatic efforts to de-escalate heightened tensions in the Middle East, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on Monday, amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s counterstrikes against US bases in Gulf countries.

Tensions escalated across the Middle East on Saturday after coordinated US-Israel strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei among other senior Iranian officials. Tehran responded by targeting US military bases in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan. Saudi Arabia said Iran also launched attacks targeting Riyadh and the Eastern Province.

The Iranian missile and drone strikes continued on Monday in retaliation for the ongoing US-Israeli air raids, casting uncertainty over the future of the Islamic republic and heightening the risk of broader instability in the already volatile region.

Speaking at a press conference, FM Dar, who recently returned from Saudi Arabia where he attended an Organization of Islamic Cooperation OIC) meeting on Palestine, said Pakistan is very closely monitoring the evolving situation in Iran and the tensions which are building up in the region.

“These serious developments have taken place at a time when diplomatic efforts were underway to reach a peaceful and negotiated solution to [Iran nuclear program],” he said.

“We are making our full diplomatic efforts and, you know, requesting all parties to de-escalate and to refrain.”

Dar said Islamabad was concerned over a violation of the norms and international law, and the age-old tradition that the heads of state and the government should not be targeted.

“Post-World War II, we all know that these institutions were created to create some international, you know, law and order, and that’s why there was a UN Charter. There are certain conventions which we all are supposed to follow,” he said.

“But things are on ground moving very differently, which obviously is worrisome... The international law must prevail and the conventions must be respected.”

The statement came hours after the Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia sustained limited damage as a result of debris from the interception of two drones in its vicinity, the Saudi Press Agency reported, citing an official source at the Saudi Ministry of Energy.

Several American warplanes crashed in Kuwait on Monday morning but their crew survived, Kuwait’s defense ministry said, as Iran pressed on with a third day of strikes in the Gulf.

Dar said Pakistan’s position has been clear and persistent that all countries must abide by the principles of UN Charter and international law, including respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other states as well as international humanitarian law.

“In my latest conversation with [Iranian] Foreign Minister Abbas Araqshi on 28th of February, I conveyed Pakistan’s condemnation of the attacks and called for restraint and diplomacy and dialogue, which he positively responded,” he shared.

“But on ground, we are seeing that things are not yet settling or easing out.”

Pakistan stands in full solidarity with all its brotherly countries and underscores the need to exercise maximum restraint, according to FM Dar.

“This is a message we have been giving to whosoever prime minister speaks, whosoever I speak, or whosoever Field Marshal Asim Munir speaks to, his counterparts on the defense side,” he said.