NEW DELHI: A change of government in Islamabad this week has raised hopes of a thaw in long-chilly relations between South Asian neighbors India and Pakistan, with analysts in New Delhi saying the political change could open up the “prospects for dialogue.”
India-Pakistan relations have been marred by conflict since the two countries became independent nations following the partition of British India in 1947. Their main bone of contention is Kashmir, a Himalayan region that both claim in full but rule in part, and over which they have fought three wars in the past seven decades.
Though ties between New Delhi and Islamabad remained frozen under the government of Imran Khan, the now ousted prime minister of Pakistan, the two nations were engaged in dialogue during the last regime of PM Nawaz Sharif, the elder brother of the new Pakistani PM, Shehbaz Sharif.
Nawaz attended Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath-taking in 2015 and in December of that year, Modi made a surprise stopover in Pakistan to meet his counterpart — the first time an Indian premier had visited the rival nation in over a decade. In unprecedented scenes, Modi and Nawaz talked for about 90 minutes and shared an early evening meal before the Indian leader flew back home. 
In his maiden speech as prime minister on Monday, Sharif spoke of improving ties with India. The PMs of the two countries also exchanged messages on Twitter and expressed their desire for “peace.”
“I think the prospects for dialogue are good,” Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, told Arab News. 
Pravin Sawhney, editor of defense magazine Force, said he saw “very bright prospects of dialogue” ahead, especially given that Sharif, who is known to have amicable ties with the Pakistani military, is expected to have a solid working relationship with Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa. 
The Pakistan military is widely believed to be in charge of national security and foreign policy in Pakistan. 
In March 2021, Bajwa called on both the nations to bury the past after their militaries released a rare joint statement announcing a cease-fire along the Line of Control, a highly militarized de facto border that divides Kashmir between India and Pakistan, and where cross-border fire has claimed hundreds of lives.
“Bajwa started the cease-fire,” Sawhney added. “And he repeatedly said that he would have talks with India.”
Jatin Desai, a peace activist and former secretary-general of the Pakistan-India Peoples’ Forum for Peace and Democracy, was less optimistic about an immediate improvement in Islamabad-New Delhi ties but said relations could be improved if both nations focused on restoring trade relations, which have been cut off since 2019, when India stripped Kashmir of its special autonomy and Pakistan retaliates by cutting diplomatic and economic ties. 
“Nawaz Sharif, when he was PM, gave importance to trade between two nations,” Desai said. 
“Let us start with trade and other issues identified as confidence-building measures,” he said. “Peace and friendly relations between neighboring nations are always important. In the case of India and Pakistan, it can reach a new height in trade, culture, people-to-people contact. Most important is to develop confidence.”
Analysts in Kashmir called for “transparency” in case talks between India and Pakistan resumed. 
“Important requirements are those of honesty and transparency in the event they do resume a dialogue,” historian and international affairs expert Prof. Siddiq Wahid, said. 
“Honesty here would require addressing all of Jammu and Kashmir, including Gilgit, Baltistan and Ladakh. And transparency would involve taking all the peoples of the territories of erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into confidence before and during their dialogue,” he added. 
“These elements have been missing in all dialogues so far.”