KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank on Tuesday decided to the keep the key policy rate unchanged at 9.75 percent, citing an improved outlook for inflation after cuts in fuel and electricity prices announced last week.
The central bank had increased the policy rate by 100 basis points to 9.75 percent in December 2021. Since then, the rate has been kept unchanged.
“This decision reflected the MPC’s view that the outlook for inflation has improved following the cuts in fuel prices and electricity tariffs announced last week as part of the government’s relief package,” the central bank said in its policy statement.
“At the same time, high-frequency indicators suggest that growth continues to moderate to a more sustainable pace. This moderation should help keep at bay demand-side pressures on inflation and contain non-oil imports, notwithstanding the significant uncertainty about the future path of global energy and food prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” the statement added.
The monetary policy committee (MPC) noted while the current real interest rates on a forward-looking basis were appropriate to guide inflation to the medium-term range of 5-7 percent, support growth, and maintain external stability, the Russia-Ukraine conflict had introduced a high degree of uncertainty in the outlook for international commodity prices and global financial conditions.
“Continued adverse conditions on these fronts could pose challenges to the outlook for the current account deficit and inflation expectations, which could necessitate changes in the policy rate,” the statement read. “Since the Russia-Ukraine situation remains fluid, the MPC noted that it was prepared to meet earlier than the next scheduled MPC meeting in late April, if necessary, to take any needed timely and calibrated action to safeguard external and price stability.”
The country’s agricultural prospects have somewhat weakened, with key inputs such as fertilizer off-take and water availability during the Rabi season lower than last year. Cotton and wheat production will likely be less than previous estimates.
“Growth in FY22 is still expected around the middle of the previously forecast range of 4-5 percent,” the central bank stated.
Looking ahead, the central bank said the non-oil current account deficit was expected to decline, as import growth continued to slow with moderating demand, while exports and remittances remained resilient.
“The outlook for the overall current account deficit is dependent on the path of international oil prices, according to the central bank,” the statement added.
The central bank said the MPC continued to expect inflation to average between 9-11 percent this fiscal year before declining toward the medium-term target range of 5-7 percent in FY23 as global commodity prices normalized.
This baseline outlook is subject to risks from the path of global prices, domestic wage developments, and the fiscal policy stance.
Pakistan central bank keeps key policy rate unchanged at 9.75% amid improved inflation outlook
https://arab.news/j7v2p
Pakistan central bank keeps key policy rate unchanged at 9.75% amid improved inflation outlook
- Russia invasion of Ukraine has introduced high degree of uncertainty in outlook for international commodity prices
- Since the situation remains fluid, monetary policy committee prepared to meet earlier than next scheduled meeting
Islamabad says surge in aircraft orders after India standoff could end IMF reliance
- Pakistani jets came into the limelight after Islamabad claimed to have shot down six Indian aircraft during a standoff in May last year
- Many countries have since stepped up engagement with Pakistan, while others have proposed learning from PAF’s multi-domain capabilities
ISLAMABAD: Defense Minister Khawaja Asif on Tuesday said Pakistan has witnessed a surge in aircraft orders after a four-day military standoff with India last year and, if materialized, they could end the country’s reliance on the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The statement came hours after a high-level Bangladeshi defense delegation met Pakistan’s Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu to discuss a potential sale of JF-17 Thunder aircraft, a multi-role fighter jointly developed by China and Pakistan that has become the backbone of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) over the past decade.
Fighter jets used by Pakistan came into the limelight after Islamabad claimed to have shot down six Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafale jets, during the military conflict with India in May last year. India acknowledged losses in the aerial combat but did not specify a number.
Many countries have since stepped up defense engagement with Pakistan, while delegations from multiple other nations have proposed learning from Pakistan Air Force’s multi-domain air warfare capabilities that successfully advanced Chinese military technology performs against Western hardware.
“Right now, the number of orders we are receiving after reaching this point is significant because our aircraft have been tested,” Defense Minister Asif told a Pakistan’s Geo News channel.
“We are receiving those orders, and it is possible that after six months we may not even need the IMF.”
Pakistan markets the Chinese co-developed JF-17 as a lower-cost multi-role fighter and has positioned itself as a supplier able to offer aircraft, training and maintenance outside Western supply chains.
“I am saying this to you with full confidence,” Asif continued. “If, after six months, all these orders materialize, we will not need the IMF.”
Pakistan has repeatedly turned to the IMF for financial assistance to stabilize its economy. These loans come with strict conditions including fiscal reforms, subsidy cuts and measures to increase revenue that Pakistan must implement to secure disbursements.
In Sept. 2024, the IMF approved a $7 billion bailout for Pakistan under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program and a separate $1.4 billion loan under its climate resilience fund in May 2025, aimed at strengthening the country’s economic and climate resilience.
Pakistan has long been striving to expand defense exports by leveraging its decades of counter-insurgency experience and a domestic industry that produces aircraft, armored vehicles, munitions and other equipment.
The South Asian country reached a deal worth over $4 billion to sell military equipment to the Libyan National Army, Reuters report last month, citing Pakistani officials. The deal, one of Pakistan’s largest-ever weapons sales, included the sale of 16 JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft for basic pilot training.
