Demand for posh houses and offices in Saudi Arabia and UAE to trigger real estate demand

Real estate analysts who spoke to Arab News say they don’t expect the impact from a Fed hike to be significant. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 26 February 2022
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Demand for posh houses and offices in Saudi Arabia and UAE to trigger real estate demand

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to drive the real estate market in the Middle East region, backed by the governments’ initiatives and evolving market dynamics.
While the fear of the negative impact of impending Fed rate hikes looms over the property demand, industry experts are largely upbeat about the future growth prospects of the real estate sector as both countries are continuing with their major economic diversification measures.
The US Federal Reserve is likely to kickstart several rounds of interest rate hikes over the course of 2022 in an effort to ease the inflationary pressure. While this is expected to impact the GCC countries – as their currencies are pegged to the dollar – industry observers expect high oil prices to act as a buffer.
Real estate analysts who spoke to Arab News say they don’t expect the impact to be any significant.
“I expect interest rates to remain reasonable. Even if they increase by 2 or 3 percent, they will also be balanced out by the country’s oil-driven growth,” Abdullah Saoud Al-a, a Riyadh-based architect who heads the ASD architectural firm, tells Arab News.
Another analyst, Shady Elborno, head of Macro Strategy Research at ENBD, echoed similar views.
“Rising interest rates will have some effect but will take some time before they reflect on the market, especially as supply and demand dynamics remain strong,” he points out, in an interview with Arab News.

Driving factors
For both Saudi and the UAE, a number of factors in tune with their local dynamics are driving the real estate market in the respective countries.
“At the residential level, Riyadh is the main hub, with high demand in terms of high-end housing and first-class office space, more specifically in West Riyad,” says Al-Deghaither.
The Kingdom’s residential real estate prices increased by 1.7 percent on an annual basis in the fourth quarter of 2021, GASTAT data shows, attributing it to a 2-percent increase in residential land plots prices.
Whereas, apartment values in Riyadh and Jeddah accelerated by 17 percent and 12 percent, respectively, over the last 12 months alone (as of November 2021), according to Mordor Intelligence.
Al-Deghaither says Riyadh has great growth potential, thanks to its demographics.
“The city, which is home to around 8 million this year, is expected to grow to 15 million in 10 to 15 years,” he underlines.
International firms have also largely been responsible for driving overall demand for commercial space in Saudi. That was driven by the government’s recent mandate asking foreign companies to establish their regional headquarters within the Kingdom by 2024 if they want to be in contention for government contracts. As a result, the Kingdom saw the authorities issuing licenses to 44 international firms to start operations as of October 2021, property consultant JLL stated in its latest report.
“Government and related entities also accounted for a portion of overall demand as they work toward delivering the goals outlined in Vision 2030. In this context, it’s perhaps unsurprising that Riyadh’s office vacancy rate stood at just 3 percent in Q4 2021,” the report added.
Several other factors including the rising demand for land – as the Kingdom is developing many mega projects – are also impacting the property market. This is in addition to the construction of strip malls as well as entertainment and tourism facilities – all of which are among the Vision 2030 goals, underlines Al-Deghaither.
“Mega projects such as Neom, Red Sea Development and Amala are on full blast, and newer master plan projects are being announced especially in the touristic sector,” says Rami Hashem, Director of Property Investment at Maad in Saudi Arabia, which specializes in hospitality development.
As a result of these, he says the real estate sector is now bouncing back, and the projects which were on hold (during the pandemic) are now continuing.
Whereas, in the UAE and most notably Dubai, fresh dynamics are shaping the real estate sector.
“The UAE (property) sector is one of the most dynamic markets in the GCC. If you look at residential apartment prices, they have gone up by 10 percent and villa housing prices have surged by 27 percent,” says Elborno, calling it a “robust performance”.
The stronger gain recorded for the larger units falls in line with tenant migration patterns witnessed post lockdown.
Additionally, industry experts say the lower supply of villas versus apartments in Dubai further supported the performance of that segment year-to-year. However, pricing dynamics in H2 2021 reflected that the trend is beginning to change with higher-priced larger units giving way to gains by smaller units, according to a recent report by Elborno.

Positive outlook
In the longer run, higher interest rates and increased supply are likely to be a headwind to further significant growth in prices from current levels, warns Elborno.
In addition, the commercial property segment faced multiple headwinds at the beginning of the year including a market that is oversupplied.
He points out that office sales prices were almost flat, rising just 0.83 percent year-to-year. The quarterly performance was very mixed, with sales prices declining 8.4 percent and 3.6 percent year-to-year, respectively, in Q1 and Q2, before recovering 4 percent and 12.3 percent year-to-year, respectively, in Q3 and Q4, as the number of COVID-19 cases dropped.
Moving forward, one trend that will continue to pick up in the region is sustainable development as Saudi and the UAE are driving the adoption of newer technologies and green practices in the construction space.
“These are becoming more attractive to buyers, “says Elborno.
For Al-Deghaither, the real estate sector in the Kingdom holds a lot of promise for the years to come. Whereas, Hashem feels mega projects in the North of Saudi will also do well, providing impetus to the property market.
Whereas, in the UAE, housing will remain an attractive proposition for buyers as Dubai continues to strengthen its position as the global hub for business and lifestyle.


What MENA’s wild 2025 funding cycle really revealed  

Updated 26 December 2025
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What MENA’s wild 2025 funding cycle really revealed  

RIYADH: The Middle East and North Africa startup funding story in 2025 was less a smooth arc than a sequence of sharp gears: debt-led surges, equity-led recoveries, and periodic quiet spells that revealed what investors were really underwriting.   

By November, the region had logged repeated bursts of activity — culminating in September’s $3.5 billion spike across 74 deals — yet the year’s defining feature was not just the size of the peaks, but the way capital repeatedly clustered around a handful of markets, instruments, and business models.  

Across the year’s first eleven months, funding totals swung dramatically: January opened at $863 million across 63 rounds but was overwhelmingly debt-driven; June fell to just $52 million across 37 deals; and September reset expectations entirely with a record month powered by Saudi fintech mega facilities.   

The net result was a market that looked expansive in headline value while behaving conservatively in underlying risk posture — often choosing structured financing, revenue-linked models, and geographic familiarity over broad-based, late-stage equity appetite.  

Debt becomes the ecosystem’s shock absorber  

If 2024 was about proving demand, 2025 was about choosing capital structure. Debt financing repeatedly dictated monthly outcomes and, in practice, became the mechanism that let large platforms keep scaling while equity investors stayed selective.  

Founded in 2019 by Osama Alraee and Mohamed Jawabri, Lendo is a crowdlending marketplace that connects qualified businesses seeking financing with investors looking for short-term returns. Supplied

January’s apparent boom was the clearest example: $863 million raised, but $768 million came through debt financing, making the equity picture almost similar to January 2024.   

The same pattern returned at larger scale in September, when $3.5 billion was recorded, but $2.6 billion of that total was debt financing — dominated by Tamara’s $2.4 billion debt facility alongside Lendo’s $50 million debt and Erad’s $33 million debt financing.    

October then reinforced the playbook: four debt deals accounted for 72 percent of the month’s $784.9 million, led by Property Finder’s $525 million debt round.    

By November, more than half the month’s $227.8 million total again hinged on a single debt-backed transaction from Erad.   

Tamara was founded in 2020 by Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah, and Abdulmohsen Albabtain, and offers buy-now-pay-later services. Supplied

This isn’t simply ‘debt replacing equity.’ It is debt acting as a stabilizer in a valuation-reset environment: late-stage businesses with predictable cash flows or asset-heavy models can keep expanding without reopening price discovery through equity rounds.  

A two-speed geography consolidates around the Gulf  

The regional map of venture capital in 2025 narrowed, widened, then narrowed again — but the center of gravity stayed stubbornly Gulf-led.    

Saudi Arabia and the UAE alternated at the top depending on where mega deals landed, while Egypt’s position fluctuated between brief rebounds and extended softness.  

In the first half alone, total investment reached $2.1 billion across 334 deals, with Saudi Arabia accounting for roughly 64 percent of capital deployed.   

Saudi Arabia’s rise was described as ‘policy-driven,’ supported by sovereign wealth fund-backed VC activity and government incentives, with domestic firms such as STV, Wa’ed Ventures, and Raed Ventures repeatedly cited as drivers.   

Erad co-founders (left to right): Faris Yaghmour, Youssef Said, Salem Abu Hammour, and Abdulmalik Almeheini. Supplied

The UAE still posted steady growth in the first half — $541 million across 114 startups, up 18 percent year-on-year — but it increasingly competed in a market where the largest single cheques were landing elsewhere unless the Emirates hosted the region’s next debt mega round.  

The concentration became stark in late-year snapshots. In November, funding was ‘tightly concentrated in just five countries,’ with Saudi Arabia taking $176.3 million across 14 deals and the UAE $49 million across 14 deals, while Egypt and Morocco each sat near $1 million and Oman had one undisclosed deal.    

Even in September’s record month, the top two markets — Saudi with $2.7 billion across 25 startups and the UAE with $704.3 million across 26 startups — absorbed the overwhelming majority of capital.  

A smaller but notable subplot was the emergence of ‘surprise’ markets when a single deal was large enough to change rank order.   

Iraq briefly climbed to third place in July on InstaBank’s $15 million deal, while Tunisia entered the top three in June entirely via Kumulus’ $3.5 million seed round.   

These moments mattered less for the totals than for what they suggested: capital can travel, but it still needs an anchor deal to justify attention.  

Events, narrative cycles, and the ‘conference effect’  

2025 also showed how regional deal flow can bunch around events that create permission structures for announcements.   

February’s surge — $494 million across 58 deals — was explicitly linked to LEAP 2025, where ‘many startups announced their closed deals,’ helping push Saudi Arabia to $250.3 million across 25 deals.  

September’s leap similarly leaned on Money20/20, where 15 deals were announced and Saudi fintechs dominated the headlines.  

This ‘conference effect’ does not mean deals are created at conferences, but it does change the timing and visibility of closes.   

Sector leadership rotates, but utility wins  

Fintech retained structural dominance even when it temporarily lost the top spot by value.   

It led January on the back of Saudi debt deals; dominated February with $274 million across 15 deals; remained first in March with $82.5 million across 10 deals; topped the second quarter by capital raised; and reclaimed leadership in November with $142.9 million across nine deals — again driven by a debt-heavy transaction.   

Even when fintech fell to ninth place by value in October with $12.5 million across seven rounds, it still remained ‘the most active sector by deal count,’ a sign of persistent baseline demand.  

Proptech was the year’s other headline sector, but its peaks were deal-specific. Nawy’s $75 million round in May helped propel Egypt to the top that month and pushed proptech up the rankings.   

Property Finder’s debt round in October made proptech the month’s top-funded sector at $526 million. In August, proptech led with $96 million across four deals, suggesting sustained investor appetite for real-estate innovation even beyond the megadeal.   

Outside fintech and proptech, the year offered signals rather than dominance. July saw deeptech top the sector charts with $250.3 million across four deals, reflecting a moment of investor appetite for IP-heavy ventures.   

AI repeatedly appeared as a strategic narrative — especially after a high-profile visit by US President Donald Trump alongside Silicon Valley investors and subsequent GCC AI initiatives — yet funding didn’t fully match the rhetoric in May, when AI secured just $25 million across two deals.   

By late year, however, expectations were already shifting toward mega rounds in AI and the industries built around it, positioning 2025 as a runway-building year rather than a breakout year for AI funding in the region.  

Stage discipline returns as valuations reset  

In 2025, MENA’s funding landscape tried to balance two priorities: sustaining early-stage momentum while selectively backing proven scale. Early-stage rounds dominated deal flow. October saw 32 early-stage deals worth $95.2 million, with just one series B at $50 million. November recorded no later-stage rounds at all, while even September’s record month relied on 55 early-stage startups raising $129.4 million.  

When investors did commit to later stages, the cheques were decisive. February featured Tabby’s $160 million series E alongside two $28 million series B rounds, while August leaned toward scale with $112 million across three series B deals. Late-stage equity was not absent — it was episodic, appearing only when scale economics were defensible. 

Hosam Arab, CEO of Tabby. File

B2B models remained the default. In the first half, B2B startups raised $1.5 billion, or 70 percent of total funding, driven by clearer monetisation and revenue visibility.  

The gender gap remained structural. Despite isolated spikes, capital allocation continued to overwhelmingly favour male-led startups.  

What 2025 actually said about 2026  

Taken together, 2025 looked like a year of capital market pragmatism. The region demonstrated capacity for outsized rounds, but much of that capacity ran through debt, a handful of megadeals, and a narrow set of markets — primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE.   

Early-stage deal flow stayed active enough to keep the pipeline moving, even as growth-stage equity became intermittent and increasingly selective.   

By year-end, the slowdown seen in November read less like a breakdown than a deliberate pause: a market in consolidation mode preserving firepower, waiting for clearer valuation anchors and the next wave of platform-scale opportunities.   

If 2025 was about proving the region can absorb large cheques, 2026 is shaping up to test where those cheques will go — especially as expectations build around AI-led mega rounds and the industries that will form around them.