Oil market headed for surplus as omicron impact muted: IEA

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Updated 19 January 2022
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Oil market headed for surplus as omicron impact muted: IEA

  • “Supply disruptions and underperformance by OPEC+ are tempering growth expectations for 2022”

Oil supply will soon overtake demand as some producers are set to pump at or above all-time highs, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, while demand holds up despite the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant.


“This time around, the surge is having a more muted impact on oil use,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly oil report.


“While the steady rise in supply could see a significant surplus materialize in 1Q22 and going forward, available data suggest that 2022 is starting off with global oil inventories well below pre-pandemic levels,” it said.


The United States, Canada and Brazil are set to pump at all-time highs for the year while Saudi Arabia and Russia could also break their output records.


“World oil supply in 2022 has the potential for a massive Saudi-driven gain of 6.2 million bpd (barrels per day), provided the OPEC+ alliance continues to unwind the remainder of its record 2020 supply cut.”


OPEC and other producers including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, is unwinding record output cuts put in place last year to counter a fall in demand caused by the pandemic.


Its plan calls for adding back 400,000 bpd of production per month to fully unwind the cuts by the end of September, although some countries are struggling to raise output, with OPEC+ in December falling 790,000 bpd short of its target.


Eased lockdown measures mean mobility remains robust, the IEA added, leading the energy watchdog to increase its oil demand estimate for last year and 2022 by 200,000 barrels per day.


“Supply disruptions and underperformance by OPEC+ are tempering growth expectations for 2022,” it said.


But the IEA warned that with commercial oil and fuel stocks in OECD countries at their lowest levels in seven years, any dents in supply could render the oil market in 2022 volatile.


The impact could be greater given that the ramp-up in pumping means the effective spare capacity of the group is reduced and now centered in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as some smaller OPEC members face output issues.


OPEC+ producers’ effective spare capacity by the second half of the year, excluding Iranian oil which is blocked by sanctions, could shrink to 2.6 million bpd, the IEA said.


First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

Updated 16 January 2026
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First EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials reflects shared policy commitment

RIYADH: The EU–Saudi Arabia Business and Investment Dialogue on Advancing Critical Raw Materials Value Chains, held in Riyadh as part of the Future Minerals Forum, brought together senior policymakers, industry leaders, and investors to advance strategic cooperation across critical raw materials value chains.

Organized under a Team Europe approach by the EU–GCC Cooperation on Green Transition Project, in coordination with the EU Delegation to Saudi Arabia, the European Chamber of Commerce in the Kingdom and in close cooperation with FMF, the dialogue provided a high-level platform to explore European actions under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU alongside the Kingdom’s aspirations for minerals, industrial, and investment priorities.

This is in line with Saudi Vision 2030 and broader regional ambitions across the GCC, MENA, and Africa.

ResourceEU is the EU’s new strategic action plan, launched in late 2025, to secure a reliable supply of critical raw materials like lithium, rare earths, and cobalt, reducing dependency on single suppliers, such as China, by boosting domestic extraction, processing, recycling, stockpiling, and strategic partnerships with resource-rich nations.

The first ever EU–Saudi roundtable on critical raw materials was opened by the bloc’s Ambassador to the Kingdom, Christophe Farnaud, together with Saudi Deputy Minister for Mining Development Turki Al-Babtain, turning policy alignment into concrete cooperation.

Farnaud underlined the central role of international cooperation in the implementation of the EU’s critical raw materials policy framework.

“As the European Union advances the implementation of its Critical Raw Materials policy, international cooperation is indispensable to building secure, diversified, and sustainable value chains. Saudi Arabia is a key partner in this effort. This dialogue reflects our shared commitment to translate policy alignment into concrete business and investment cooperation that supports the green and digital transitions,” said the ambassador.

Discussions focused on strengthening resilient, diversified, and responsible CRM supply chains that are essential to the green and digital transitions.

Participants explored concrete opportunities for EU–Saudi cooperation across the full value chain, including exploration, mining, and processing and refining, as well as recycling, downstream manufacturing, and the mobilization of private investment and sustainable finance, underpinned by high environmental, social, and governance standards.

From the Saudi side, the dialogue was framed as a key contribution to the Kingdom’s industrial transformation and long-term economic diversification agenda under Vision 2030, with a strong focus on responsible resource development and global market integration.

“Developing globally competitive mineral hubs and sustainable value chains is a central pillar of Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s industrial transformation. Our engagement with the European Union through this dialogue to strengthen upstream and downstream integration, attract high-quality investment, and advance responsible mining and processing. Enhanced cooperation with the EU, capitalizing on the demand dynamics of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, will be key to delivering long-term value for both sides,” said Al-Babtain.

Valere Moutarlier, deputy director-general for European industry decarbonization, and directorate-general for the internal market, industry, entrepreneurship and SMEs at European Commission, said the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and ResourceEU provided a clear framework to strengthen Europe’s resilience while deepening its cooperation with international partners.

“Cooperation with Saudi Arabia is essential to advancing secure, sustainable, and diversified critical raw materials value chains. Dialogues such as this play a key role in translating policy ambitions into concrete industrial and investment cooperation,” she added.