LONDON: Portfolio investors have started to rebuild bullish positions in the oil market, reassessing earlier fears about the likely impact of omicron variant of coronavirus on major economies and passenger aviation in 2022.
Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 70 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the last two weeks of December. They had sold 327 million barrels over the previous ten-week period, according to records published by regulators and exchanges.
Last week's buying was the fastest since August, and among the most rapid rates for more than a year. It signaled a sharp turnaround from previously bearish investor sentiment. Purchases were split evenly, between new bullish long positions, and the closure of existing short positions.
The pattern of buying mainly concentrated on crude and middle distillates, consistent with a continued upswing in the macroeconomic cycle despite the rapid spread of omicron.
Portfolio managers seem to expect the continued recovery in oil consumption, including jet fuel. Coupled with limited production increases by OPEC, its allies, and US shale firms, they expect will keep prices trending higher in 2022.
Pessimism on the impact of the global recovery and international quarantines that pressured oil prices in November and early December is no longer justified, the sentiment suggests.
