OPEC+ impasse could last into next month, says JP Morgan analyst

OPEC+ — the alliance of producers which failed to agree an increase in supply earlier this month — could take up to six weeks to finalize a production agreement, analyst says. (Reuters)
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Updated 13 July 2021
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OPEC+ impasse could last into next month, says JP Morgan analyst

  • The proposal was put forward by Saudi Arabia and Russia, with a view to ensuring long-term stability in oil supply

DUBAI: The impasse in global oil markets could last into August and prompt big increases in the price of crude, according to a leading expert of the energy industry.

Christian Malek, analyst with American bank JP Morgan, said that OPEC+ — the alliance of producers which failed to agree an increase in supply earlier this month — could take up to six weeks to finalize a production agreement “as OPEC undergoes the due process of examining the case for higher baseline production.”

The deadlock arose because the UAE wanted to reassess its baseline level as a precondition to agreeing to higher output which the other 22 members of OPEC+ had agreed on.

The proposal was put forward by Saudi Arabia and Russia, with a view to ensuring long-term stability in oil supply, on the back of rising demand late this year and in 2022, as the global economy shakes off the pandemic recession.

“In the end, we expect Saudi to get its way, but not without the tail risk of much higher oil prices,” Malek wrote in a research note to investors.

“The proposal led by Saudi and Russia of an increase of 400,000 barrels per month starting from August (until reaching the April 2020 reference production level) has yet to be endorsed by the UAE, despite the fact that it serves to help neutralize future deficits and control the oil upside,” he added.

In the absence of additional barrels, the world’s big consumers would draw down inventories in the second half of the year, possibly to below the five-year average OPEC+ uses as its yardstick, and raising the price of crude in an “incrementally bullish” way.

“In turn, we think this could prompt the UAE to resolve a mutually beneficial framework within OPEC,” Malek said.

“We do not expect a total breakdown similar to last year’s price war and our best case is that the parties retain the desire to broker a deal,” he added.


Saudi investment pipeline active as reforms advance, says Pakistan minister

Updated 7 sec ago
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Saudi investment pipeline active as reforms advance, says Pakistan minister

ALULA: Pakistan’s Finance Minister Mohammed Aurangzeb described Saudi Arabia as a “longstanding partner” and emphasized the importance of sustainable, mutually beneficial cooperation, particularly in key economic sectors.

Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Aurangzeb said the relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia remains resilient despite global geopolitical tensions.

“The Kingdom has been a longstanding partner of Pakistan for the longest time, and we are very grateful for how we have been supported through thick and thin, through rough patches and, even now that we have achieved macroeconomic stability, I think we are now well positioned for growth.”

Aurangzeb said the partnership has facilitated investment across several sectors, including minerals and mining, information technology, agriculture, and tourism. He cited an active pipeline of Saudi investments, including Wafi’s entry into Pakistan’s downstream oil and gas sector.

“The Kingdom has been very public about their appetite for the country, and the sectors are minerals and mining, IT, agriculture, tourism; and there are already investments which have come in. For example, Wafi came in (in terms of downstream oil and gas stations). There’s a very active pipeline.”

He said private sector activity is driving growth in these areas, while government-to-government cooperation is focused mainly on infrastructure development.

Acknowledging longstanding investor concerns related to bureaucracy and delays, Aurangzeb said Pakistan has made progress over the past two years through structural reforms and fiscal discipline, alongside efforts to improve the business environment.

“The last two years we have worked very hard in terms of structural reforms, in terms of what I call getting the basic hygiene right, in terms of the fiscal situation, the current economic situation (…) in terms of all those areas of getting the basic hygiene in a good place.”

Aurangzeb highlighted mining and refining as key areas of engagement, including discussions around the Reko Diq project, while stressing that talks with Saudi investors extend beyond individual ventures.

“From my perspective, it’s not just about one mine, the discussions will continue with the Saudi investors on a number of these areas.”

He also pointed to growing cooperation in the IT sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, noting that several Pakistani tech firms are already in discussions with Saudi counterparts or have established offices in the Kingdom.

Referring to recent talks with Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, Aurangzeb said Pakistan’s large freelance workforce presents opportunities for deeper collaboration, provided skills development keeps pace with demand.

“I was just with (Saudi) minister of economy and planning, and he was specifically referring to the Pakistani tech talent, and he is absolutely right. We have the third-largest freelancer population in the world, and what we need to do is to ensure that we upscale, rescale, upgrade them.”

Aurangzeb also cited opportunities to benefit from Saudi Arabia’s experience in the energy sector and noted continued cooperation in defense production.

Looking ahead, he said Pakistan aims to recalibrate its relationship with Saudi Arabia toward trade and investment rather than reliance on aid.

“Our prime minister has been very clear that we want to move this entire discussion as we go forward from aid and support to trade and investment.”