RIYADH: Saudi investors should ensure their portfolios include inflation exposure as global prices continue to accelerate, said a Credit Suisse banker.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled it may act sooner than previously planned to start dialing back its low-interest-rate policy as inflation gathers pace worldwide.
Fed policymakers forecast that they would raise their benchmark short-term rate twice by late 2023. They had earlier indicated rate hikes would not happen before 2024.
“Certainly inflation and inflationary exposure is the name of the game now, Fahd Iqbal, Credit Suisse head of private bank Middle East research, told Bloomberg TV on Thursday. “There are transitory aspects of inflation, not just in Saudi but in the US and globally — but once that transitory spike abates and we see inflation come down again, we will see structural factors that will help keep inflation higher than we’ve been accustomed to and that’s going to be the case for some time to come.”
Saudi inflation rose for a second straight month in May as the consumer price index hit 5.7 percent. Prices rose from 5.3 percent the previous month according to data from the General Authority for Statistics.
The pickup in inflation highlighted the continuing impact of higher value added tax (VAT) which was increased to 15 percent in July 2020 from 5 percent before. Transport prices also increased by 19.3 percent, led by the rising cost of buying a vehicle.
Rising prices in the Kingdom are now influencing how investors play the market, say analysts.
“Investors really need to make sure that they are focusing on ensuring they have inflation exposure in their portfolios,” said Iqbal. “For us it would be market leaders in consumer and industrial names at the top of the list. Beyond that you would look at financials, which is really about interest rates, a by-product of inflation, not inflation itself.”
A 7.3 percent increase in food prices was the main driver of Saudi inflation in May 2021, the General Authority for Statistics said yesterday. Food represents a weighting of 17 percent in the Saudi consumer basket that economists use to measure the cost of living in the Kingdom.
Investors eye Saudi inflation plays as Fed turns hawkish
https://arab.news/86kcj
Investors eye Saudi inflation plays as Fed turns hawkish
- Inflation is more than a transitory spike, Credit Suisse says
- Fed moved prediction for first rate rises to 2023, from 2024
‘The age of electricity’: WEF panel says geopolitics is redefining global energy security
- Surging demand, critical minerals, US-China rivalry reshaping energy security as nations compete for influence, infrastructure, control over world’s energy future
LONDON: Electricity is rapidly replacing oil as the world’s most strategic energy commodity, and nations are racing to secure reliable supply and influence in a changing energy landscape.
Global electricity demand is growing nearly three times faster than overall energy consumption, driven by artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and rising use of air-conditioning in a warming world.
“We are entering the age of electricity,” said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, during a panel discussion titled “Who is Winning on Energy Security?” at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.
Unlike oil, electricity cannot be stockpiled at scale, forcing governments and companies to prioritize generation, transmission, and storage, making regions with stable infrastructure increasingly important on the global stage.
US-China rivalry
Energy security is increasingly about control and influence, not just supply. The rivalry between the US and China now extends beyond oil to critical minerals, energy infrastructure, and long-term energy partnerships.
“The contrast between the US approach and China’s is stark,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, director of Harvard University’s Belfer Center. “The US, until recently, focused on access, not control. China flips that, seeking long-term influence and making producers more dependent on them.”
O’Sullivan highlighted China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which invests in energy infrastructure and critical minerals across Africa, Latin America, and Asia to secure influence over production and supply chains.
“It’s not just the desire to control oil production itself, but to control who develops resources,” she said, citing Venezuela as an example. The South American nation holds some of the world’s largest crude oil reserves, giving it outsized geopolitical importance. Recent US moves to expand influence over Venezuelan oil flows illustrate the broader trend that great powers are competing to shape who benefits from energy resources, not just the resources themselves.
“There’s no question that the intensified geopolitical competition between great powers is playing out in more competition for energy resources, particularly as the energy system becomes more complex,” O’Sullivan added.
Global drivers of the electricity era
The rise of electricity as a strategic commodity is also transforming global supply chains. Copper, lithium, and other minerals have become essential to modern energy systems.
“A new ‘energy commodity’ is copper,” said Mike Henry, CEO of BHP. “Electricity demand is growing three times faster than primary energy, and copper is essential for wires, data centers, and renewable energy. We expect a near doubling, about a 70 percent increase in copper demand over 25 years.”
Yet deposits are harder to access, refining is concentrated in a few countries, and supply chains are politically exposed.
“The world’s ability to generate electricity reliably will increasingly depend on materials and infrastructure outside traditional oil and gas markets,” Birol said.
AI and digital technologies amplify the challenge with large-scale data centers consuming enormous amounts of electricity.
The Middle East’s strategic relevance
While the global focus is on electricity demand and great-power rivalry, the Middle East illustrates how traditional energy hubs are adapting.
Majid Jafar, the CEO of Crescent Petroleum, highlighted the region’s enduring advantages: abundant reserves, low-carbon potential, and strategic geography.
“Geopolitical instability reinforces, if anything, the Middle East’s role as a supplier with scale, affordability, availability, and some of the lowest carbon reserves,” he said.
Jafar emphasized the region’s ability to navigate the growing US-China rivalry.
“Amid US-China global friction, the Middle East has managed to remain on good terms with both sides,” he said, noting that flexible policy and engagement help preserve influence while balancing competing interests.
The region is also adapting to the electricity-driven era. AI data centers and digital technologies are multiplying power needs. Jafar said: “One minute of video consumes roughly an hour’s electricity for an average Western household. Multiply that across millions of servers and billions of people and the scale is staggering.”
Infrastructure investments further strengthen the Middle East’s strategic position. In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the Runaki Project has expanded natural gas–fueled power plants to provide 24/7 electricity to millions of residents and businesses, reducing reliance on diesel generators and supporting economic growth.
According to Jafar, the combination of energy resources, capital, leadership, and agile policymaking gives the Middle East a competitive edge in meeting global electricity demand and navigating the complex geopolitics of energy.
While the panel highlighted the Middle East as one example, in the age of electricity, energy security is defined as much by influence and infrastructure as by barrels of oil, with the US-China rivalry determining who gains and who is left behind.
