LONDON: Climate activists who scored big against Western majors last week had some unlikely cheerleaders in the oil capitals of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Russia.
Defeats in the courtroom and boardroom mean Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron are all under pressure to cut carbon emissions faster. That’s good news for the likes of Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Russia’s Gazprom and Rosneft.
It means more business for them and OPEC.
“Oil and gas demand is far from peaking and supplies will be needed, but international oil companies will not be allowed to invest in this environment, meaning national oil companies have to step in,” said Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects consultancy.
Climate activists scored a major victory with a Dutch court ruling requiring Royal Dutch Shell to drastically cut emissions, which in effect means cutting oil and gas output. The company will appeal.
The same day, the top two US oil companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron both lost battles with shareholders who accused them of dragging their feet on climate change.
“It looks like the West will have to rely more on what it calls “hostile regimes” for its supply,” joked a high-level executive from Russia’s Gazprom oil and gas group, referring to energy companies around the world owned completely or mostly by the state.
Saudi Aramco, ADNOC and Gazprom all declined to comment. Oil major Rosneft, in which the Russian state has the biggest stake, also declined to comment.
A senior Saudi Aramco staffer said the court ruling would make it easier for OPEC to ramp up production.
“It is great for Aramco,” the staffer said.
Western oil majors like Shell have dramatically expanded in the last 50 years, as the West sought to cut its reliance on energy from the volatile Middle East, and from Russia.
Those same Western energy majors, including BP and Total, have set out plans to sharply reduce emissions by 2050. But they face growing pressure from investors to do more to meet UN-backed targets to limit global warming.
Saudi Aramco, listed on the Saudi bourse but majority state owned, is not under the same sort of pressure to cut its carbon emissions, although the Kingdom’s rulers aim to sharply increase the country’s use of renewables.
Gazprom expects demand for natural gas to grow in the coming decades and for it to play a bigger role in energy consumption than renewable sources and hydrogen.
Western oil majors control around 15 percent of global output, while OPEC and Russia have a share of around 40 percent. That share has been relatively stable in the last decades as rising demand was met with new producers like smaller private US shale firms, which today face similar climate-related pressures.
Since 1990, global oil consumption has grown to 100 million barrels per day from 65 million bpd, with Asia providing the lion’s share of growth.
Countries such as China and India have made no pledges to reduce oil consumption, which on a per capita basis is still a fraction of the levels in the West. China will rely heavily on gas to cut its huge coal consumption.
The International Energy Agency, which looks after energy policies of the West, issued a stark appeal last month to the world to essentially scrap all new oil and gas developments. But it gave no clear formula on how to reduce demand.
Despite pressure from activists, investors and banks to cut emissions, Western oil majors are also tasked with maintaining high dividends amid heavy debt. Dividends from oil companies represent significant contributions to pension funds.
“It is vital that the global oil industry aligns its production to the Paris goals. But that must be done in step with policy, changes to the demand side, and the rebuilding of the world’s energy system,” said Nick Stansbury from Legal & General, which manage £1.3 trillion ($1.8 trillion) in assets on behalf of savers, retirees and institutions.
“Forcing one company to do so in the courts may (if it is effective at all) only result in higher prices and foregone profits,” he said. Legal & General, one of the world’s largest fund managers, holds assets in most oil majors.
Climate lawsuits have been filed in 52 countries in the past two decades, with 90 percent of those in the United States and European Union, risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft said.
“In the West, energy investments will peak on fears and concerns over regulations and court rulings. Then, we will see peak dividends,” said the Aramco executive. Aramco pays the highest annual dividend of $75 billion.
Over the past five years, the IEA has been predicting a large oil shortage and an oil price spike due to a lack of investments following a 2014-2017 oil price crash.
An oil price rally coupled with the declining strength of oil majors would mean a large wealth transfer from the West to countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, until demand starts declining not only in the West but in Asia too.
“The same oil and gas will still be produced. Just with lower ESG standards,” said an executive from a Middle Eastern producer, who previously worked for an oil major, referring to environmental, social and governance performance measurements.
Aramco and ADNOC seen gaining more power with Shell Dutch ruling
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Aramco and ADNOC seen gaining more power with Shell Dutch ruling
- An oil price rally coupled with the declining strength of oil majors would mean a large wealth transfer from the West to countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, until demand starts declining not only in the West but in Asia too
UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales
- Moody’s sees mild softening of prices over the next 12 - 8 months as rising completions add supply
RIYADH: The UAE’s residential real estate market is expected to see a modest decline in developer sales and a mild softening of prices over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply, Moody’s said.
Despite near-term easing, the credit ratings agency noted that developers are supported by strong revenue backlogs and solid financial positions, while regulatory measures have reduced banks’ exposure to the construction and property sectors, helping to preserve robust solvency and liquidity buffers across the financial system.
The broader trend is reflected in the UAE’s real estate market, which recorded a strong performance during the first three quarters of 2025, according to Markaz.
In Dubai, transaction values increased 28.3 percent year on year to 554.1 billion Emirati dirhams ($150.88 billion), while Abu Dhabi recorded total sales of 58 billion dirhams, up 75.8 percent year on year. The number of transactions in Abu Dhabi rose 42.3 percent to 15,800.
The report said: “After five years of extraordinary growth in the UAE’s residential real estate market, particularly in Dubai, we expect developer sales to decline modestly and some price softening over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply.
“From 2026 to 2028, around 180,000 new units will be completed in Dubai, a significant increase from prior years that is likely to weigh on demand and slow price growth.
“However, fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by continued population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals. Rated developers’ credit quality will remain resilient, supported by strong revenue backlogs, front-loaded payment plans and solid financial positions.”
Munir Al-Daraawi, founder and CEO of Dubai-based Orla Properties, told Arab News the Moody’s report underscores what the firm is seeing on the ground, namely “a market that is successfully transitioning from a period of extraordinary growth to one of sustainable stability.”
He added: “While a mild softening of prices and a modest decline in sales are anticipated over the next 12 to 18 months, these are natural adjustments for a maturing global hub like Dubai.”
Al-Daraawi believes the the projected delivery of 180,000 units between 2026 and 2028 is not a cause for concern, but “a reflection of the UAE’s long-term appeal to high-net-worth individuals and a growing population.”
The CEO added: “The report rightly points out that fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan and a significant influx of global talent.”
He went on to note that the resilience of the sector is further bolstered by the solid financial positions of developers and the strong regulatory measures that have shielded the banking sector from excessive exposure.
“This creates a robust ecosystem where credit quality remains high, even as we navigate a more competitive landscape. For boutique and luxury-focused developers, the current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation — factors that will continue to define the UAE’s real estate success story,” said Al-Daraawi.
The current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation.
Munir Al-Daraawi, Founder and CEO of Orla Properties
Riad Gohar, co-founder and CEO of BlackOak Real Estate, told Arab News that while Moody’s is correct to say that supply is rising, the conclusion of a broad slowdown ignores the structure of this current economic cycle.
He added: “First, this is not a debt-fueled market. Around 83 percent of Dubai residential transactions in 2024 and 2025 were non-mortgaged. That means the market is equity-driven, not credit-driven. When cycles are not built on leverage, corrections are typically shallow and segmented, not systemic. “
He added that the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger than in past cycles, driven by sustained non-oil gross domestic product increase, structural reforms, population growth, and capital inflows aligned with long-term national plans.
“Demand is not purely speculative; it is driven by migration, business formation, and wealth relocation,” the CEO said.
“Third, prime vs. non-prime must be separated. Any pressure from increased completions is more likely to affect marginal locations, not established prime areas supported by global HNWI inflows. Historically, prime assets in Dubai have shown resilience even during broader market pauses,” Gohar added.
He continued to clarify that for smaller developers, some may feel margin compression if sales moderate, but this becomes a consolidation phase, not a systemic risk.
“Banks’ real estate exposure has already declined to around 12 percent of total loans — from 19 percent in 2021 — and NPLs (non-performing loans) are low at 2.9 percent, meaning financial contagion risk is limited. Regulatory escrow structures and stricter oversight further reduce spillover,” the CEO said.
“We are in a capital-rich, cash-driven cycle, regulated market with strong GDP and population growth. If anything, weaker fringe players exiting would strengthen the core not destabilize it,” he said.
The Moody’s report highlighted that while most developers it rates will generate “substantial excess cash” over the next two to three years, there will be fewer opportunities to make significant investments, especially within the Dubai real estate market.
As well as prompting a shift toward corporate governance and, in particular, how developers deploy their rising liquidity, some firms are looking to diversify beyond their core business models.
“For instance, Binghatti has recently launched its first master-planned villa community, marking a departure from its historical focus on single-plot high-rise developments, as demand for villas continues to outperform that for apartments,” said the report.
It continued: “Others are looking beyond Dubai and the UAE for growth, whether through geographic diversification or expansion into unrelated sectors.
“For example, Damac’s owner, Hussain Sajwani, has announced significant planned investments in data center development across the US and Europe.
“Emaar continues to develop actively in Egypt and India and is evaluating potential entry into China and the US. Aldar has started development projects in the UK and Egypt, while Arada has begun building in Australia and the UK and Sobha is expanding into the US.”
