WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: IEA sees oil demand rebound in second half of 2021

Motorists fill their cars at one of the few remaining gas stations that still has fuel in Arlington, Virgina, on May 13, 2021. (AFP)
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Updated 16 May 2021
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WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: IEA sees oil demand rebound in second half of 2021

Oil prices continue the weekly upward momentum for the third week in a row with flat fluctuations. At the end of the week, both benchmarks moved up with the same magnitude, trading in the upper $60s. Brent crude price rose by $0.43 to $68.71 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate rose by $0.47 to $65.37 per barrel.

OPEC’s monthly oil market report came with two surprises, one bearish and one bullish. The bearish surprise was that the organization reported a surprising surge in commercial oil inventories, increasing by 10 million barrels month-on-month in March 2021 — 13.5 million barrels higher than the same time a year ago and 37.8 million barrels above the latest five-year average.

The bullish surprise was that OPEC reported a huge drop in non-OPEC oil and gas investments in exploration and production in 2020. At $311 billion, it is the lowest seen for 15 years and is expected to remain unchanged in 2021. This is compared to the high level of $718 billion seen in 2014.

OPEC’s oil demand outlook was unchanged from last month’s estimate, averaging 96.5 million barrels per day (bpd) despite indications of a global economic recovery, central banks’ assertion of an environment of low interest rates and the continuing program of asset purchases. On the supply side, OPEC crude oil production rose by 70,000 bpd in April and hit a three-month high of 24.96 million bpd.

On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly oil market report predicted a slight downward adjustment to oil demand outlook, down from 96.7 million bpd to 96.4 million bpd. The downward revision was due to lower global refining throughput amid weaker consumption in Europe and North America in the first quarter and the lower oil demand in India in the second quarter as a result of the surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases.

• Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter: @faisalfaeq


Gulf airlines launch limited relief flights as Middle East airspace closures strand passengers

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Gulf airlines launch limited relief flights as Middle East airspace closures strand passengers

RIYADH: Qatar Airways and Emirates said they will operate limited relief flights from March 5 to assist stranded passengers after US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered widespread airspace closures and disrupted global travel.

Qatar Airways announced that its flights will depart from Muscat, Oman, to six European destinations, including London, Berlin, and Rome, as well as from Riyadh to Frankfurt.

These would be the airline’s first flights since Feb. 28, when its Doha hub was shut after the strikes on Iran, according to airline service Flightradar24.

Emirates said that it will operate the flights from March 5 until 11:59 p.m. UAE time on March 7, as a result of the current conditions prevailing in the region.

“We are accommodating customers with earlier bookings as a priority on these limited flights. Customers transiting in Dubai will only be accepted for travel if their connecting flight is operating,” the organization said.

The airline continued to advise passengers not to go to the airport unless they have been notified directly by Emirates or hold a confirmed booking for these flights. ​

“Emirates continues to monitor the situation, and we will develop our operational schedule accordingly,” the airline added.

As of the morning of March 5th, Emirates flights had departed from Dubai to destinations including Sydney, Paris, and Amsterdam, as well as Toronto and Mumbai, Flightradar24 data showed, though the vast majority of services remained canceled.

All Etihad Airways’ scheduled commercial flights to and from Abu Dhabi remain suspended until 6:00 a.m. UAE time on March 6.

“In coordination with UAE authorities and subject to strict operational and safety approvals, a limited number of repositioning, cargo and repatriation flights are operating,” the airline said in a statement.

The closures disrupted key hub airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad, which operate from these hubs, normally handle around 90,000 passengers daily, with even more traveling to other Middle Eastern destinations, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

Airline shares rebound as trickle of Middle East flights resume

Airline shares rebounded on March 5 as more flights took off from the Middle East, providing some reprieve for carriers after US-Israeli strikes on Iran wiped billions of dollars off their market value earlier in the week, Reuters reported.

Governments have been scrambling to arrange flights out of the Middle East for tens of thousands of citizens stranded by the intensifying conflict, which has closed most of the region’s airspace due to the risk of missiles hitting passenger planes.

Asian airlines shares rebound

Jet fuel prices have soared globally since the strikes on Iran, with the Singapore rate hitting an all-time high on concerns of supply disruption, S&P Global Platts said.

Nevertheless, many Asian airline shares rebounded after double-digit losses in recent days amid uncertainty over the conflict’s duration and rising oil prices.

“For now, I consider this rebound to be primarily short-term in nature, and its sustainability will still depend on the ongoing situation in the Iranian conflict,” said Kenny Ng, a securities strategist at China Everbright Securities International.

Shares in Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways rose 4 percent, Japan Airlines was up 0.25 percent, Qantas Airways closed 1 percent higher and Korean Air Lines jumped more than 6 percent.

Major Chinese carriers, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, fell between 1 percent and 3 percent in both the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets, stabilizing after steeper falls earlier this week.

“Asian airlines are highly sensitive to Iran’s situation due to exposure through routes and energy in both revenue and costs. Any news on shortening the duration of the war can easily turn sentiment,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis.

With airspace severely constrained, airlines have been forced to reroute flights, carry extra fuel, or make additional refueling stops to guard against sudden diversions or longer flight paths through safer corridors.

In addition to upending travel, the escalating Middle East conflict has also reduced the world’s air cargo capacity by more than one-fifth and pushed up freight rates.