TRIPOLI, Libya: Oil cartel OPEC saw production rise in December, as Libya’s energy sector sprang back to life following a cease-fire deal in the war-torn country.
Sitting atop Africa’s largest proven crude oil reserves, Libya has been ravaged by conflict since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled and killed long-time dictator Muammar Qaddafi.
As global oil prices remain volatile in the midst of the novel coronavirus pandemic, which has rattled the world economy, and further rounds of UN-backed peace talks to build on the October cease-fire and resolve Libya’s long conflict, what are the prospects for the country’s production?
Libya’s is now producing 1,224 million barrels per day (bpd) — a tenfold increase from a 121,000 bpd average in the third quarter of 2020, before the cease-fire deal.
But that is still below the levels of the Qaddafi era, said Francis Perrin, head of research at the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.
Libya was then producing between 1.5 million and 1.6 million barrels per day, he told AFP.
Demand for crude has sunk under the impact of Covid-19 and producing nations have been adjusting output to support prices.
Libya’s surge has meant production for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached 25.36 million bpd in December, an increase of 278,000 bpd compared with the previous month.
Libya is exempt from OPEC’s production quotas, so the cartel needs to keep an eye on its output.
Libyan petroleum engineer Al-Mahdi Omar, however, said his country’s industry was “still in difficulty,” despite the spike.
“It’s a miracle that the oil sector continues to function despite the dilapidation and damage of infrastructure due to war, negligence or sabotage,” he said.
The oil and gas sector represents around 60 percent of Libya’s GDP.
In January last year, armed groups loyal to eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar blocked production and exports from Libya’s most important oil fields and terminals.
They demanded a “fairer” distribution of revenues, which are managed by the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli.
The GNA is backed by Turkey, while Haftar is supported by Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.
Haftar agreed in September to lift the blockade, several months after the failure of an offensive by his fighters to take the capital.
The blockade resulted in lost revenues of almost $10 billion, the National Oil Corporation has estimated.
On October 26, just days after the cease-fire was agreed, the NOC said it had lifted force majeure — external unforeseen elements that prevent a party from fulfilling a contract — on the last oil facility in the country.
And while all Libya’s oil fields are back online, the NOC announced earlier this month that a pipeline had been closed for maintenance, causing a drop in production of around 200,000 bpd, Bloomberg reported.
“This gives you an indication that the infrastructure in Libya is really in bad shape,” Bloomberg quoted NOC chief Mustafa Sanalla as saying.
Perrin said there was scope for further improvement to Libya’s oil production, “but not immediately.”
“In the short term, if it manages to maintain its current levels, that would be very good,” he said.
“The main uncertainty is political.”
Lifting the blockade has allowed production and exports to rise since September, but “this is part of a temporary agreement, a truce — it’s not a peace deal,” Perrin warned.
The country is also seeking support from foreign oil companies to help repair its infrastructure, according to Bloomberg.
“We are now discussing with our partners how to finance and how they can help us,” it quoted the NOC chief as saying.
Libyan economist Nouri Al-Hammi said the country’s oil recovery remained “fragile.”
“Only fair revenue distribution and the creation of real development opportunities can settle the sector’s problems,” he said.
Distribution of oil revenues in Libya is a thorny issue and crucial to settling the conflict.
After a decade of war, the October cease-fire has set the stage for elections at the end of this year.
Resources-sharing between Tripoli and the east is “a key element of the discussions between the two parties... It could make or break the nascent truce,” Perrin said.
It is “a sword of Damocles that hangs over Libya’s oil production.”
Blockades of important sites will remain a constant threat to production “if discussions on revenue-sharing fail to reach a compromise,” he warned.
For engineer Omar, oil in Libya has been key ever since the discovery at the end of the 1950s of its reserves, the largest in Africa.
“It is at the heart of negotiations between the Libyan adversaries, but also between their foreign supporters,” he said.
Libya oil output makes high-stake but fragile return
https://arab.news/wqqwm
Libya oil output makes high-stake but fragile return
- Libya’s is now producing 1,224 million bpd, a tenfold increase from a 121,000 bpd average in the third quarter of 2020
- Demand for crude has sunk under the impact of Covid-19 and producing nations have been adjusting output to support prices
How lifestyle-led real estate is reshaping Saudi Arabia’s urban future
- Government spending, regulatory changes, and incentives for foreign investors are fueling development
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is entering a new phase, one defined by lifestyle, experience, and quality of life rather than sheer housing volume.
Driven by Vision 2030, lifestyle-focused developments are set to outperform traditional residential projects, reshaping how people live, work, and connect across the Kingdom.
Government spending, regulatory changes, and incentives for foreign investors are also fueling development. Rising demand across residential, commercial, and logistics sectors, along with the push for smart cities and sustainability, is reshaping the market.
Saudi Arabia’s real estate market was valued at $77.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $137.8 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.7 percent from 2026 to 2034, according to IMARC Group.
Lifestyle-focused real estate market
Saudi Arabia’s real estate landscape has evolved beyond conventional housing. Guided by Vision 2030, it now plays a key role in enhancing quality of life, boosting tourism, and driving economic diversification.
According to Sally Menassa, partner at Arthur D. Little, what stands out today is a clear shift from volume-driven residential supply to lifestyle-led, experience-based development.
“As a result, the lifestyle-focused segment is expected to outperform conventional residential real estate, growing at around 8 percent annually over the next five years. This growth is being driven by changing consumer expectations, population growth, rising incomes, and the scale of public investment shaping new urban environments,” Menassa said.
She added that demand in the Kingdom’s real estate is rising across four key segments: mixed-use districts near urban hubs such as King Salman Park; wellness-focused communities prioritizing walkability and services; coastal living along the Red Sea with branded residences; and heritage-driven districts like Diriyah and Al Balad that blend culture, hospitality, and long-term value.
“Overall, this marks a fundamental shift in the Kingdom. Real estate is no longer an end in itself and about delivering buildings; it is becoming a platform for place-making, economic diversification, and sustained value creation,” the ADL partner explained.
From another perspective, Houssem Jemili, senior partner at Bain and Co. Middle East said: “Saudi’s real estate market is forecast at roughly 7–8 percent CAGR to 2030; ‘lifestyle’ demand is being pulled most by amenity-led mixed-use communities plus higher-spec, greener and wellness-leaning homes.”
A report from PwC Middle East released in 2025 focused on the future of sustainable real estate in Saudi Arabia, and showed that the sector is shifting toward livability-focused, high-quality urban developments. Giga-projects are driving demand for mixed-use, wellness-focused, and socially connected communities that enhance quality of life.
Imad Shahrouri, cities sector lead partner, consulting, in Riyadh at PwC Middle East said: “By placing livability and human experience at the foundation of its urban agenda, Saudi Arabia is shaping a market where lifestyle-led developments will play an increasingly influential role in driving demand and investment.”
Core lifestyle elements developers are prioritizing
Saudi developers are shifting from the traditional “build and sell” model to creating integrated lifestyle communities focused on long-term value and everyday living.
Menassa from ADL highlighted that the shift centers on enhancing public spaces — with walkable areas, parks, and wellness facilities — to promote healthier, more social lifestyles, especially for a younger, health-focused population.
“Convenience is also playing a bigger role in shaping residential districts. Schools, childcare centers, clinics, co-working spaces and a wide range of food and beverage options are increasingly located within walking distance of homes, reducing commuting time and making everyday life more efficient and connected,” she said.
The partner added: “Equally important is the role of culture and social activity. Many developments now incorporate cultural venues, entertainment spaces and destination dining, ensuring that neighborhoods remain active throughout the day and week rather than becoming dormant outside working hours.”
Menassa went on to stress that real estate in Saudi Arabia is evolving into a strategic tool for quality of life, tourism, and talent attraction. Driven by Vision 2030, developments now integrate smart infrastructure and global lifestyle standards, while staying rooted in local culture to meet the needs of a young, urban population.
FASTFACT
Driven by Vision 2030, lifestyle-focused developments are set to outperform traditional residential projects, reshaping how people live, work, and connect across the Kingdom.
From Bain’s lens, Jemili said: “Developers are prioritizing livable neighborhoods. Walkability, parks and sport, culture and entertainment access, and everyday convenience, shaped by Vision 2030’s Quality of Life agenda and the 70 percent homeownership-by-2030 push.”
Shahrouri from PwC shed light on how developers in the Kingdom prioritizing livability, wellbeing, and inclusive, community-focused spaces are, aligning with Vision 2030’s push to enhance daily life and promote social integration while reflecting local identity.
“As a result, lifestyle-led elements such as walkable neighborhoods, activated public spaces and integrated community facilities are becoming central to new destinations, ensuring future developments foster more connected, resilient and experience-rich ways of living,” he said.
Regions, cities key hubs for experiential development
Several Saudi cities are emerging as prominent centers for lifestyle-focused, experiential development, each defined by its unique urban and economic character.
From ADL’s perspective, Riyadh is leading this shift as it positions itself as a global capital. The city is seeing strong demand for integrated, mixed-use districts that support live-work-play lifestyles.
“Developments such as KAFD, Diriyah, and areas surrounding King Salman Park reflect a growing preference for urban living that combines employment, culture, green space, and entertainment in close proximity,” Menassa said.
“Jeddah’s appeal is different, but equally compelling. Its strength lies in its coastal character, historic fabric, and more relaxed urban rhythm. Waterfront regeneration and heritage-led districts, particularly around Al Balad, are driving interest in developments that blend walkability, culture, and sea-facing lifestyles — attracting residents, investors, and tourists alike,” she added.
The partner continued to underline that destination developments along the Red Sea coast focus on sustainable, low-density communities blending hospitality, nature, and residential living, promoting wellness and eco-tourism.
Menassa noted that secondary cities like Abha and AlUla are emerging as hubs for outdoor living, culture, and heritage, supported by government policies and investments.
These lifestyle-driven districts appeal to residents for livability and job access, and to investors for scale and stability, offering resilience through everyday services and cultural experiences.
From Bain’s side, Jemili explained that Riyadh and Jeddah stand out as the main hubs because they combine jobs, population growth, liquidity and are where “integrated community” formats scale fastest.
“We’re seeing the same in Makkah and Madinah; the focus is shifting from delivering more units to delivering higher-quality development and standards,” he said.
From PwC’s perspective, Shahrouri noted that regions across Saudi Arabia are becoming hubs for lifestyle-driven development, with large-scale regeneration creating sustainable, well-designed environments that enhance urban living and attract global investment.
“Flagship projects are reshaping their surroundings by focusing on the character and feel of place, bringing together community elements, environmental responsibility, and integrated urban design.”
Their growing appeal comes from the balance they strike between modern infrastructure and a human-centered approach to planning, creating destinations where daily life feels more seamless and connected,” he said.
Next phase of Saudi real estate evolution
The next phase of Saudi Arabia’s real estate evolution is likely to be defined by integration, intelligence, and regeneration.
From ADL’s lens, Menassa explained that Riyadh is set to feature highly vertical, dense urban environments designed for land efficiency and sustainability, with fully integrated live-work-play ecosystems that reduce commuting, boost productivity, and enhance social cohesion.
“The real shift, however, is toward AI-enabled and data-driven communities, where energy, mobility, and services are actively managed rather than passively consumed. Real estate will increasingly be judged not by how much is sold, but by how well places perform — in terms of livability, productivity, and environmental outcomes,” she said.
The partner noted that Saudi Arabia is boosting private sector involvement, public-private partnerships, and institutional investments to develop public spaces and social infrastructure. The focus is shifting from just constructing cities to designing lifestyles, using real estate as a key driver for economic growth and social transformation.
Jemili from Bain said: “The next phase is more about operating districts like platforms, digital twins, and real-time data to optimize energy, maintenance, mobility, and resident experience, creating tighter live-work-play loops. Rather than ‘building more.’”
From PwC’s side, Saudi Arabia is building a strong foundation for future cities by focusing on resilient, resource-efficient developments and adaptable infrastructure, paving the way for smart, connected urban models like vertical districts and digital neighborhoods.
“These emerging environments are set to respond more naturally to the needs of their communities. As the quality and experience of urban life continue to rise, our cities are poised to become more intelligent, enriching and future ready, evolving with their residents and reflecting the ambition of a nation transforming at pace,” Shahrouri concluded.
