Branded residences on the rise in Middle East

Dubai is forecast to become the largest city based on pipeline schemes, with an increase from master developer Emaar. (Reuters)
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Updated 21 December 2020
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Branded residences on the rise in Middle East

  • Growth of such schemes has outpaced hoteliers, rising from 11% of the market in 2010 to 16% in 2020

RIYADH: One hundred branded residences opened across the Middle East in 2020 despite strained economic conditions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, demonstrating the growing popularity of the real estate sector in the region.

According to a report by global real estate consultancy firm Savills, the growth of such schemes over the past decade has outpaced hoteliers, rising from 11 percent of the  market in 2010 to 16 percent in 2020.

The study said that 11 new non-hotelier brands are expected to enter the market by 2025. However, hotel brands still dominate the hospitality industry, accounting for 84 percent of current schemes and 88 percent of the pipeline.

Marriott, whose brands include W, The Ritz-Carlton and St. Regis, is by far the leader in the sector and is set to remain so.

In terms of geography, Miami topped the list with 32 branded residential schemes, followed by Dubai (29) and New York (25).

Twelve countries will see their first branded residential projects over the next four years in locations as diverse as Iceland, Paraguay and Nigeria.

Egypt is forecast to grow the fastest of any country over the same time period, rising from one to 18 schemes. Other countries moving from a low base include Spain, with an increase of 83 percent, followed by Bahrain, Belize and Costa Rica, all set to see an 80 percent increase in such schemes. 

Commenting on the study, Richard Paul, head of professional services for the Middle East at Savills, said: “When it comes to price, branded residences achieve a premium, on average, of 31 percent over equivalent non-branded properties, although this figure can vary significantly by location. If we look at Dubai, it is forecast to become the largest city based on pipeline schemes, with a notable increase from Dubai-based master developer Emaar.”

The report found that Emaar has risen swiftly up the rankings of top branded residential developers, currently 10th on the list compared with 24th in 2007.

Jaidev Menezes, vice president of Marriott International’s mixed-use development, Middle East and Africa section, said: “Marriott International has a strong pipeline of branded residences across the Middle East and Africa. The growth of the portfolio is fueled by developer and purchaser demand for our well-established premium and luxury brands, and our proven track record of operating 100+ branded residence schemes globally.”

He added: “We see continued growth opportunities across the region for co-located projects (hotel/branded residences) as well as standalone branded residences across urban, suburban and resort markets.”

The UAE, Mexico and Brazil are expected to add the most schemes by number among the fastest-growing countries, which are classed as set to increase their existing supply by more than 50 percent.

Vietnam, the UK, Morocco, Malaysia, Australia and Saudi Arabia also have a pipeline of at least six schemes per country.

Commenting on the trend, Paul Tostevin, director, Savills World Research, said: “This mixture of emerging and established prime markets illustrates the ever-widening reach of the sector today. Now a proven formula, brands are confident entering new territories.”

According to Savills, the highest brand premiums are achieved in the emerging markets. Recently established markets such as Bangkok, Beijing and Phuket achieved premiums of between 40 percent and 45 percent, comparatively higher than more mature markets.

Truly emerging markets with few branded properties can command prices that are double to non-branded stock, as demonstrated by Almaty in Kazakhstan and Belgrade, with premiums of 150 percent and 120 percent, respectively.


UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

Updated 21 February 2026
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UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

  • Moody’s sees mild softening of prices over the next 12 - 8 months as rising completions add supply

RIYADH: The UAE’s residential real estate market is expected to see a modest decline in developer sales and a mild softening of prices over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply, Moody’s said.

Despite near-term easing, the credit ratings agency noted that developers are supported by strong revenue backlogs and solid financial positions, while regulatory measures have reduced banks’ exposure to the construction and property sectors, helping to preserve robust solvency and liquidity buffers across the financial system.

The broader trend is reflected in the UAE’s real estate market, which recorded a strong performance during the first three quarters of 2025, according to Markaz.

In Dubai, transaction values increased 28.3 percent year on year to 554.1 billion Emirati dirhams ($150.88 billion), while Abu Dhabi recorded total sales of 58 billion dirhams, up 75.8 percent year on year. The number of transactions in Abu Dhabi rose 42.3 percent to 15,800.

The report said: “After five years of extraordinary growth in the UAE’s residential real estate market, particularly in Dubai, we expect developer sales to decline modestly and some price softening over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply. 

“From 2026 to 2028, around 180,000 new units will be completed in Dubai, a significant increase from prior years that is likely to weigh on demand and slow price growth. 

“However, fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by continued population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals. Rated developers’ credit quality will remain resilient, supported by strong revenue backlogs, front-loaded payment plans and solid financial positions.”

Munir Al-Daraawi, founder and CEO of Dubai-based Orla Properties, told Arab News the Moody’s report underscores what the firm is seeing on the ground, namely “a market that is successfully transitioning from a period of extraordinary growth to one of sustainable stability.”

He added: “While a mild softening of prices and a modest decline in sales are anticipated over the next 12 to 18 months, these are natural adjustments for a maturing global hub like Dubai.” 

Al-Daraawi believes the the projected delivery of 180,000 units between 2026 and 2028 is not a cause for concern, but “a reflection of the UAE’s long-term appeal to high-net-worth individuals and a growing population.”   

The CEO added: “The report rightly points out that fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan and a significant influx of global talent.” 

He went on to note that the resilience of the sector is further bolstered by the solid financial positions of developers and the strong regulatory measures that have shielded the banking sector from excessive exposure.

“This creates a robust ecosystem where credit quality remains high, even as we navigate a more competitive landscape. For boutique and luxury-focused developers, the current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation — factors that will continue to define the UAE’s real estate success story,” said Al-Daraawi. 

The current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation.

Munir Al-Daraawi, Founder and CEO of Orla Properties

Riad Gohar, co-founder and CEO of BlackOak Real Estate, told Arab News that while Moody’s is correct to say that supply is rising, the conclusion of a broad slowdown ignores the structure of this current economic cycle.

He added: “First, this is not a debt-fueled market. Around 83 percent of Dubai residential transactions in 2024 and 2025 were non-mortgaged. That means the market is equity-driven, not credit-driven. When cycles are not built on leverage, corrections are typically shallow and segmented, not systemic. “

He added that the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger than in past cycles, driven by sustained non-oil gross domestic product increase, structural reforms, population growth, and capital inflows aligned with long-term national plans.

“Demand is not purely speculative; it is driven by migration, business formation, and wealth relocation,” the CEO said.

“Third, prime vs. non-prime must be separated. Any pressure from increased completions is more likely to affect marginal locations, not established prime areas supported by global HNWI inflows. Historically, prime assets in Dubai have shown resilience even during broader market pauses,” Gohar added.

He continued to clarify that for smaller developers, some may feel margin compression if sales moderate, but this becomes a consolidation phase, not a systemic risk.

“Banks’ real estate exposure has already declined to around 12 percent of total loans — from 19 percent in 2021 — and NPLs (non-performing loans) are low at 2.9 percent, meaning financial contagion risk is limited. Regulatory escrow structures and stricter oversight further reduce spillover,” the CEO said.

“We are in a capital-rich, cash-driven cycle, regulated market with strong GDP and population growth. If anything, weaker fringe players exiting would strengthen the core not destabilize it,” he said.

The Moody’s report highlighted that while most developers it rates will generate “substantial excess cash” over the next two to three years, there will be fewer opportunities to make significant investments, especially within the Dubai real estate market.

As well as prompting a shift toward corporate governance and, in particular, how developers deploy their rising liquidity, some firms are looking to diversify beyond their core business models.

“For instance, Binghatti has recently launched its first master-planned villa community, marking a departure from its historical focus on single-plot high-rise developments, as demand for villas continues to outperform that for apartments,” said the report.

It continued: “Others are looking beyond Dubai and the UAE for growth, whether through geographic diversification or expansion into unrelated sectors.

“For example, Damac’s owner, Hussain Sajwani, has announced significant planned investments in data center development across the US and Europe.

“Emaar continues to develop actively in Egypt and India and is evaluating potential entry into China and the US. Aldar has started development projects in the UK and Egypt, while Arada has begun building in Australia and the UK and Sobha is expanding into the US.”