Downgrades to raise South Africa’s borrowing costs

The South African government faces a choice between increasing taxes or cutting spending, as it attempts to grapple with its credit ratings downgrade amid the coronavirus disease pandemic. (AFP)
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Updated 22 November 2020

Downgrades to raise South Africa’s borrowing costs

  • Decision by credit ratings agencies Moody’s and Fitch would be “painful” for country, minister says

JOHANNESBURG: South Africa’s finance ministry said credit ratings downgrades by Moody’s and Fitch would increase the country’s borrowing costs and constrain its fiscal options.

“The decision by Fitch and Moody’s ... is a painful one,” Tito Mboweni, minister of finance, said in a statement.

There is an urgent need for government to implement structural economic reforms to avoid further harm to the country’s sovereign rating, he said.

Credit rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s lowered South Africa’s sovereign ratings deeper into junk territory late on Friday on rising debt and a likely further weakening in its fiscal position. S&P Global affirmed its rating.

With the coronavirus disease pandemic worsening, South Africa’s tax revenue is falling as the economy contracts, while spending to contain the spread of the virus and cushion its impact on the poor has increased.

At last month’s mid-term budget, the National Treasury forecast South Africa would record a budget deficit of over 15 percent of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2021, the highest in post-apartheid history.

Africa’s most industrialized nation currently has a debt of nearly 4 trillion rand ($260 billion), or 63.3 percent of the GDP. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to swell to over 90 percent in three years, the worst such increase in the world.

With the ratings downgrade, the cost of borrowing and servicing the debt will increase and the government will either have to cut back on social spending or tax more, the National Treasury said, at a time when almost a third of the population is unemployed.

“Continuous rating downgrades will translate to unaffordable debt costs, deteriorating asset values (such as retirement, other savings and property) and reduction in disposable income for many,” it said, referring to the impact on South Africans.

Market reaction to the downgrades, for the time being, is likely to be muted, said Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank.

“Reform momentum (of government) is looking more positive near term,” she said, but cautioned it is fraught with challenges.


Economic boost tipped after UAE company ‘game-changer’

Updated 25 November 2020

Economic boost tipped after UAE company ‘game-changer’

  • Dramatic overhaul of corporate ownership laws follows accelerated reforms to shrug off pandemic slowdown

DUBAI: Radical changes to corporate ownership and investment laws could provide a significant boost to the UAE as it seeks to emerge from the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic lockdowns, business experts told Arab News.

The Emirati authorities have announced a raft of changes that relax restrictions on foreign ownership and make it easier for international businesses to set up and operate in the UAE, as well as new rules that will allow more shares to be listed on the country’s stock exchanges.

Economics expert Nasser Saidi said: “The liberalization of foreign ownership laws breaks down major barriers to the right of establishment. The reform is a game-changer.”

Tarek Fadlallah, CEO of Nomura Asset Management in the Middle East, said: “I would like to see some more detail, but if the deal is that you can leave London or New York and set up easily in the UAE, it’s revolutionary in regional terms.”

The changes were announced in the form of a presidential decree. “Maybe it’s pandemic related, but everything the UAE authorities have done this year has been extremely positive for the business and financial environment,” Fadlallah added.

Under the changes, companies seeking to quote shares on UAE markets will be able to list up to 70 percent of their shares, a big jump from the previous 30 percent limit, in a move that could reinvigorate local stock markets.

“It will encourage foreign direct investment, but also lead to a recapitalization of jointly owned companies and encourage entrepreneurs to invest in businesses and new ventures. Importantly, it will encourage the retention of savings in the UAE,” Saidi added.

The most eye-catching of the planned changes is the move to allow foreign firms to set up outside free zones without the requirement for a majority Emirati shareholder or agent.

The new set-up will in theory open the way for full foreign ownership throughout the UAE, although the Emirati authorities have been pragmatic in the past in their efforts to attract big-name foreigners. Apple was allowed full foreign ownership when it set up its first store in the country five years ago. 

Pandemic restrictions have hit an already sluggish UAE economy. (AFP)

More foreign firms setting up onshore could be seen as a threat for the free-zone model that has been one of the driving forces behind the UAE’s rise to become the regional business hub.

Habib Al-Mulla, executive chairman of Baker & McKenzie Habib Al-Mulla law firm, said: “Free zones will now face a real challenge. They either come up with a new package of incentives or their role ends.”

Other proposed changes also represent a break from the traditional business culture in the region. Rules that required a company chairperson to be an Emirati national, and for company boards to have an Emirati majority, have also been removed.

In addition, the decree allows for the dismissal of a chairman or any other board member if a judicial judgment is issued against them for committing fraud or misuse of power, while enabling stakeholders to sue a company in civil court over any failure of duty that results in damages.

Electronic voting will also be allowed at shareholder meetings, in a departure from the requirement for a physical show of hands.

“The decree is reflective of the UAE’s forward-looking vision to open up its economy by creating a favorable legislative environment that will keep pace with the changes taking place across the global economy and supporting companies operating in the country,” the official UAE news agency, WAM, said.

Some sectors regarded as of strategic importance — such as energy, utilities, and government-owned businesses — will be exempt from the new rules, and there is a certain amount of discretion given to local authorities in setting rules regarding Emirati directors and determining fees and charges payable under the new regulations.

This week’s changes are the latest in a series of reforms that have been accelerated in the UAE since the COVID-19 pandemic recession struck an already sluggish business scene.

New rules on residency visas have been introduced to alleviate problems in the real estate market, especially in Dubai, as well as a range of changes to social and lifestyle reforms.

“Along with the change in visa regulations, the new reforms will boost the UAE’s growth prospects,” Saidi said.

Ziad Daoud, Dubai-based chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg, said: “Diversifying stock markets away from oil requires attracting foreign investment as well as fixing the distorted labor market. Most other measures are cosmetic. We’ll see how they are implemented, but the initial assessment of the new regulations is positive.”