How Erodgan-led Turkey went from NATO ally to liability

The blue-homeland doctrine envisions Turkey ignoring internationally recognized coastal rights of islands and laying claim to huge chunks of the Aegean and the Mediterranean Seas. (Getty Images/File)
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Updated 24 September 2020
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How Erodgan-led Turkey went from NATO ally to liability

  • Country now viewed as an unpredictable, dangerous force at odds with the interests of its NATO “allies”
  • Rich gas deposits in eastern Mediterranean believed to lie at the heart of its aggressive new naval doctrine

MISSOURI: Reflecting a new Turkish naval doctrine, the phrase “blue homeland” is widely used in Turkey today.

Developed by former Turkish Rear Admiral Cem Gurdeniz, the blue homeland doctrine envisions Turkey ignoring the internationally recognized coastal rights of islands and laying exclusive claim to huge chunks of the Aegean and the Mediterranean Seas.

The new Turkish territorial waters doctrine would leave nothing for Greek Cypriots and encircle most of the Greek islands in the Aegean.

Newly discovered rich gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean may lie at the heart of Ankara’s new naval doctrine, which pits Ankara against Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel.

France has sent some of its warships to the Mediterranean to back Greece and the others, as a dangerous dance of gunboat diplomacy and naval drills is played out adjacent to gas explorations vessels in contested waters.

France and Greece are members of NATO as well, of course, but this has not prevented a barrage of bellicose exchanges between them and Turkey over maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean.

While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned France “not to mess with Turkey,” French President Emmanuel Macron has said the Turks “only respect actions rather than words” and that he has “set red lines for Turkey.”

Things were not always so bad between Turkey and its NATO allies. For 50 years after its admission into NATO in 1952, Turkey played a key and model role in the alliance.

Bordering the Soviet Union’s Georgia and Armenia and controlling the Bosporus straits to the Black Sea, the Turks offered the alliance unparalleled benefits and the second largest land army in NATO.

In return, the Turks received NATO’s protection against the Russians, who had since the 19th century been Turkey’s greatest external threat, as well as top-of-the-line NATO military hardware and expertise.

During those years a staunchly secular Turkey made significant sacrifices on behalf of the NATO alliance. A key NATO radar base was built in Kurecik in eastern Turkey, along with the very important shared NATO-Turkish airbases in Konya and Incirlik.

Turkey contributed troops to the war in the Korean Peninsula in the early 1950s, the 1991 Gulf War, NATO operations in the Balkans during the 1990s, and the 2002 war against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

In the case of the Gulf War, Turkey’s cooperation with its NATO allies cost the country a great deal economically.

Iraq had been a key Turkish trading partner and major source of oil imports, but Turkish Prime Minister Turgut Ozal fell in line with the US and other NATO allies in applying sanctions on Saddam Hussein and ending this trade.

Since joining NATO in 1952, Turkish military officers trained at military academies in the US and developed a close working relationship with their NATO counterparts in Brussels.

INNUMBERS

639k Size of Turkish armed forces.

11 Rank in Global Firepower military strength.

$19bn Annual military budget.

The only real glitch during those first 50 years of Turkey’s NATO membership occurred over Cyprus, culminating in the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus. During that conflict, Turkey and fellow NATO member Greece almost went to war against one another.

The blame for the 1974 episode resides more with Greece, however, which had just lost its civilian government to a military coup. Greek nationalists in Athens were busily trying to upset the status quo in the Mediterranean, supporting enosis (Cypriot union with Greece) and the persecution of Cyprus’ Turkish minority.

At the time, Greece stood out as the liability in the NATO alliance, violating the terms of Cyprus’ founding treaty of independence and simultaneously not contributing very much to the NATO alliance.

The Greek and Turkish roles in NATO look very much reversed today. Since 2003, Turkey has increasingly become a liability and even a danger to other NATO members. The irredentism in the region now comes from Ankara rather than Athens.




The catalogue of problems Erdogan’s Turkey has caused for NATO since 2002 is lengthy and complex. (AFP)

Whereas Turkey once pursued a prudent foreign policy and largely eschewed military adventurism in the region, the country under Erdogan’s leadership looks very different today.

Turkish forces occupy large swaths of northern Syria, engage in regular strikes in northern Iraq (despite Baghdad’s protests), lead thousands of mercenaries in Libya and advise and assist Muslim Brotherhood-linked politicians in Yemen.

In his speeches, Erdogan increasingly criticizes the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne and the borders it created, claiming that Mosul and the islands in the Aegean were stolen from Turkey.

Turkish media (which is overwhelmingly government-controlled these days) frequently show maps of Turkey that depict the Greek islands, all of Cyprus, parts of mainland Greece and Bulgaria, and most of northern Syria and Iraq as part of Turkey.

Besides Turkey’s dispute with Greece and France in the Mediterranean, Ankara and Paris back different sides in the civil wars in Libya and Syria, as well. France and Greece are not the only NATO allies at odds with Turkey.

While Washington, Paris and London backed Syrian Kurdish forces against the so-called Islamic State, or Daesh, Ankara stood accused of backing both Daesh and other radical Islamist groups in Syria.

Turkey’s invasions of northern Syria in 2018 and 2019 were not welcomed by its NATO allies and threatened to unravel the Kurdish-led offensive against Daesh.

The catalogue of problems Erdogan’s Turkey has caused for NATO since 2002 is lengthy and complex. Besides its support for Islamist and radical groups in Syria, Libya, Yemen and elsewhere, Turkey for a long time denied NATO permission to use shared airbases in Turkey against Daesh.

Erdogan repeatedly threatened to unleash waves of refugees on Europe if the EU did not pay Turkey to host the refugees and even, on two occasions, if the EU dared to criticize Turkish invasions of Syria.

 




Turkey has become an unpredictable, dangerous force for instability in the region that seems very much at odds with the interests of its NATO. (AFP)

During the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey, the government accused the Americans of involvement in the coup attempt and even cut off electricity to the Incirlik base – where the US forces maintain several nuclear warheads. Erdogan’s government has repeatedly helped Iran to evade US sanctions.  

In 2015 Turkey shot down a Russian warplane flying along its border with Syria, which threatened to drag NATO into an unwanted war with Moscow. Just a few years later, however, Ankara not only repaired relations with Moscow but went on to purchase advanced Russian military hardware, including the S400 air defense systems.

Since the Russian equipment, operating in conjunction with the new American F-35 fighter aircraft, could potentially expose critical vulnerabilities in the latter (allowing the Russians to learn the F-35’s weaknesses), the Americans were forced to remove Turkey from the F-35 fighter program.

The list goes on and could include Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism and Erdogan’s overt disdain for Europe, the Americans and the West in general, but the point is that Turkey has become an unpredictable, dangerous force for instability in the region that seems very much at odds with the interests of its NATO “allies.”
 




For 50 years after its admission into NATO in 1952, Turkey played a key and model role in the alliance. (AFP)

US officials began publicly questioning Turkey’s place in NATO several years ago. Dana Rohrabacher, the Republican chair of a House subcommittee on emerging threats, expressed serious doubts in 2016 when he said: “Ten years ago Turkey was a solid NATO ally and a staunch opponent of radical Islam and a friend of the United States, and today that’s all in question … Erdogan is purging pro-Western people throughout his country who are in positions of influence. He himself has become more aggressive in his Islamic beliefs, and there’s reason for us to be seriously concerned.”

The rupture between Erdogan and his NATO allies is so serious, in fact, that most of the Turkish military officers who trained with NATO in America and Belgium have come under suspicion in Ankara, with those abroad at the time of the 2016 attempted coup mostly requesting political asylum lest they be arrested in Turkey on trumped-up charges.
 




The blue homeland doctrine envisions Turkey ignoring the internationally recognized coastal rights of islands and laying exclusive claim to huge chunks of the Aegean and the Mediterranean Seas. (AFP)

In a world where Russian expansionism is no longer the threat it was in Soviet times, such developments put in question Turkey’s very place in NATO. There seems little doubt that today’s Turkey would not be admitted to the Western military alliance. The problem, however, is that with an increasingly hostile Turkey already a part of the alliance, NATO lacks any mechanism for expelling members.

American policymakers in particular also seem to reason that expelling Turkey from NATO would only exacerbate Ankara’s current tilt towards Russia and Islamist tendencies.

They instead hope to use NATO to smoothen out relations with the Turks, with NATO’s headquarters in Brussels this week serving as a venue for negotiations between Turkey and France and their dispute in the Mediterranean.

Only time will tell if it is right to treat Turkey as the ally the Americans and other NATO members wish they still had rather than the liability that Erdogan and his government have become.

• David Romano is Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University


Israel says attacks on Iran are ‘nothing’ compared with what is coming

Iranian Red Crescent volunteers gather in front of a building destroyed in an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 14, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 20 min 53 sec ago
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Israel says attacks on Iran are ‘nothing’ compared with what is coming

  • Netanyahu said Israel’s strikes had set back Iran’s nuclear program possibly by years but rejected international calls for restraint

JERUSALEM/DUBAI: Iran and Israel traded missiles and airstrikes on Saturday, the day after Israel launched a sweeping air offensive against its old enemy, killing commanders and scientists and bombing nuclear sites in a stated bid to stop it building an atomic weapon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s strikes had set back Iran’s nuclear program possibly by years but rejected international calls for restraint, saying the attack would be intensified.
“We will hit every site and every target of the Ayatollahs’ regime, and what they have felt so far is nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days,” he said in a video message.
In Tehran, Iranian state TV reported that around 60 people, including 20 children, had been killed in an attack on a housing complex, with more strikes reported across the country. Israel said it had attacked more than 150 targets.
In Israel, air raid sirens sent residents into shelters as waves of missiles streaked across the sky and interceptors rose to meet them. At least three people were killed overnight. An Israeli official said Iran had fired around 200 ballistic missiles in four waves.
US President Donald Trump has lauded Israel’s strikes and warned of much worse to come unless Iran quickly accepts the sharp downgrading of its nuclear program that the US has demanded in talks that had been due to resume on Sunday.
But with Israel saying its operation could last weeks, and urging Iran’s people to rise up against their Islamic clerical rulers, fears have grown of a regional conflagration dragging in outside powers.
The United States, Israel’s main ally, helped shoot down Iranian missiles, two US officials said.
“If (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei continues to fire missiles at the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said.
Iran had vowed to avenge Friday’s Israeli onslaught, which gutted Iran’s nuclear and military leadership and damaged atomic plants and military bases.
Tehran warned Israel’s allies that their military bases in the region would come under fire too if they helped shoot down Iranian missiles, state television reported.
However, 20 months of war in Gaza and a conflict in Lebanon last year have decimated Tehran’s strongest regional proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, reducing its options for retaliation.
Lawmaker and military general Esmail Kosari said Iran was reviewing whether to close the Strait of Hormuz, the exit point for oil shipped from the Gulf.
Nights of blasts and fear in Israel and Iran
Iran’s overnight fusillade included hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, an Israeli official said. Three people, including a man and a woman, were killed and dozens wounded, the ambulance service said.
In Rishon LeZion, south of Tel Aviv, emergency services rescued a baby girl trapped in a house hit by a missile, police said, but later on Saturday Tel Aviv beaches were busy with people enjoying the weekend.
In the western suburb of Ramat Gan, near Ben Gurion airport, Linda Grinfeld described her apartment being damaged: “We were sitting in the shelter, and then we heard such a boom. It was awful.”
The Israeli military said it had intercepted surface-to-surface Iranian missiles as well as drones, and that two rockets had been fired from Gaza.
In Iran, Israel’s two days of strikes destroyed residential apartment buildings, killing families and neighbors as apparent collateral damage in strikes targeting scientists and senior officials in their beds.
Iran said 78 people had been killed on the first day and scores more on the second day, many of them when a missile brought down a 14-story apartment block in Tehran.
State TV said 60 people were believed to have been killed there, though the figure was not officially confirmed.
It broadcast pictures of a building flattened into debris and the facade of several upper storys lying sideways in the street, while slabs of concrete dangled from a neighboring building.
“Smoke and dust were filling all the house and we couldn’t breathe,” 45-year-old Tehran resident Mohsen Salehi told Iranian news agency WANA after an overnight air strike woke his family.
Fars News agency said two projectiles had hit Mehrabad airport, located inside the capital, which is both civilian and military.
With Iran’s air defenses heavily damaged, Israeli Air Force chief Tomer Bar said “the road to Iran has been paved.”
In preparation for possible further escalation, reservists were being deployed across Israel. Army Radio reported units had been positioned along the Lebanese and Jordanian borders.
Iranian nuclear sites damaged
Israel sees Iran’s nuclear program as a threat to its existence, and said the bombardment was designed to avert the last steps to production of a nuclear weapon.
A military official on Saturday said Israel had caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, but had not so far taken on another uranium enrichment site, Fordow, dug into a mountain.
The official said Israel had “eliminated the highest commanders of their military leadership” and had killed nine nuclear scientists who were “main sources of knowledge, main forces driving forward the (nuclear) program.”
Tehran insists the program is entirely civilian in line with its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and that it does not seek an atomic bomb.
However, it has repeatedly hidden some part from international inspectors, and the International Atomic Energy Agency on Thursday reported it in violation of the NPT.
Iranian talks with the United States to resolve the nuclear dispute have stuttered this year.
The next meeting was set for Sunday but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Saturday that continuing the talks while Israel’s “barbarous” attacks lasted was unjustifiable.


We will recognize the State of Palestine soon, Macron tells Asharq News

French President Emmanuel Macron holds a press conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Friday. (File/Reuters)
Updated 14 June 2025
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We will recognize the State of Palestine soon, Macron tells Asharq News

  • French president: ‘I have agreed with the Saudi crown prince to postpone the New York conference to a date in the near future’

PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron pledged, in statements to Asharq News on the sidelines of a meeting with journalists and representatives of Palestinian and Israeli civil society institutions, that his country will recognize the State of Palestine at an upcoming conference that France will organize with Saudi Arabia in New York.
In response to a question about whether there are conditions for recognizing the Palestinian state, Macron said: “There are no conditions. Recognition will take place through a process that includes stopping the war on Gaza, restoring humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip, releasing Israeli hostages, and disarming Hamas.”
He stressed: “This is one package.”
Macron indicated that France and Saudi Arabia have agreed to postpone the UN conference they are co-organizing, which was originally scheduled to take place in New York next week. He noted that current developments have prevented Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas from traveling to New York.
Macron explained that he had spoken several times with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Friday and Palestinian President Abbas, and it was agreed to “postpone the meeting to a date in the near future.”
He also claimed that the president of Indonesia, which currently does not officially recognize Israel, had pledged to do so if France recognizes the State of Palestine. Macron emphasized “the need for maintaining this dynamic.”
The International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine, scheduled to be held in New York from June 17-20 and co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and France, outlined in its paper a commitment to the “two-state solution” as the foundational reference. The paper defines a timeline for implementation, outlines the practical obligations of all parties involved, and calls for the establishment of international mechanisms to ensure the continuity of the process.
Asharq News obtained a copy of the paper, which asserts that the implementation of the two-state solution must proceed regardless of local or regional developments. It ensures the full recognition of a Palestinian state as part of a political solution that upholds people’s rights and responds to their aspirations for peace and security.
The paper highlights that the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and the war on Gaza have led to an unprecedented escalation in violence and casualties, resulting in the most severe humanitarian crisis to date, widespread destruction, and immense suffering for civilians on both sides, including detainees, their families, and residents of Gaza.
It further confirms that settlement activities pose a threat to the two-state solution, which it states is the only path to achieving a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace in the region. The paper notes that the settlement activities undermine regional and international peace, security, and prosperity.
According to the paper, the conference aims to alter the current course by building on national, regional, and international initiatives and adopting concrete measures to uphold international law. The conference will also focus on advancing a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace that ensures security for all the people of the region and fosters regional integration.
The conference reaffirms the international community’s unwavering commitment to a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian cause and the two-state solution, highlighting the urgent need to act in pursuit of these objectives.


Iranian media claims Israeli pilots captured, IDF denies

Updated 14 June 2025
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Iranian media claims Israeli pilots captured, IDF denies

DUBAI: The Iranian army has claimed they have downed a third Israeli F-35 fighter jet since Israel’s attacks began on Friday.

State Iranian media, Tehran Times, reported that one pilot is believed to have been liquidated and another captured by Iranian forces.

However, the Israeli Defense Forces denied the claims dubbing the news “fake”.

“This news being spread by Iranian media is completely baseless” the IDF’s Arabic spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Friday the launch of “Operation Rising Lion” against Iran in an effort to deter the Iranian threat of nuclear weapons to Israel. Netanyahu confirmed the operation will continue until the mission is accomplished.


Closure of Strait of Hormuz seriously being reviewed by Iran, lawmaker says

Updated 14 June 2025
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Closure of Strait of Hormuz seriously being reviewed by Iran, lawmaker says

  • The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Oman and Iran, is the world’s most important gateway for oil shipping

The closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz was being seriously reviewed by Iran, IRINN reported, citing statements by Esmail Kosari, a member of the parliament’s security commission.

The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Oman and Iran, is the world’s most important gateway for oil shipping.


Jordan reopens airspace to civilian aircraft

Updated 14 June 2025
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Jordan reopens airspace to civilian aircraft

  • Jordan said airlines would be provided with the “necessary” information to notify passengers and stakeholders of the latest data on air traffic

DUBAI: Jordan has reopened its airspace to civilian aircraft on Saturday, signaling belief there was no longer an immediate danger of further attacks after crossfire between Israel and Iran disrupted East-West travel through the Middle East.
But the country “is continuing to assess risks to civil aviation and monitor developments after Jordan’s airspace was reopened this morning,” a statement from the civil aviation authority said, and reported by state-run Petra news.
The Kingdom on Friday closed its airspace to all flights due to the barrage of missiles and rockets from Iran.
The statement also said airlines would be provided with the “necessary” information to notify passengers and stakeholders of the latest data on air traffic.
Lebanon’s government also temporarily reopened its airspace on Saturday.
Lebanon reopened its airspace on Saturday at 10:00 a.m. (0700 GMT).
The airspace will be shut again starting from 10:30 p.m. (1930 GMT) until 6:00 a.m. (0300 GMT) on Sunday, NNA reported, citing the Lebanese civil aviation authority.