OPEC slashes oil demand forecast, cuts to restore balance

Oil has recovered to $30 a barrel from the low last month and held onto an earlier gain after the report’s release. (Reuters)
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Updated 14 May 2020

OPEC slashes oil demand forecast, cuts to restore balance

  • OPEC now expects global demand to contract by 9.07 million barrels per day (bpd), or 9.1 percent, in 2020

LONDON: OPEC on Wednesday again slashed its forecast for global oil demand this year as the coronavirus outbreak causes a global recession, although it said record supply cuts by the group and other producers were already helping to rebalance the market.

OPEC now expects global demand to contract by 9.07 million barrels per day (bpd), or 9.1 percent, in 2020, it said in a monthly report. Last month, OPEC expected a contraction of 6.85 million bpd.

Oil prices have collapsed in 2020 with benchmark Brent hitting a 21-year low of $15.98 a barrel on April 22. To tackle the drop, OPEC and its allies agreed to a record supply cut, while the US and other nations said they would pump less. OPEC said these measures were already helping.

“The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market have already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters,” OPEC said in the report.

Oil has recovered to $30 a barrel from the low last month and held onto an earlier gain after the report’s release.

OPEC expects this quarter to see the biggest drop in demand and lowered its demand forecast for the second quarter by 5.4 million bpd. Downside risks remain for consumption in the US, Europe and South Korea, OPEC said.

OPEC lowered its estimate of global economic growth in 2020, forecasting a contraction of 3.4 percent and saying the coronavirus crisis “has caused a recession in the global economy as well as an unprecedented oil demand shock.”


BP said to be considering sale of Mideast ‘stranded assets’

Updated 32 min 59 sec ago

BP said to be considering sale of Mideast ‘stranded assets’

  • Major oil companies typically hold assets for the long term

LONDON: BP is preparing to sell a large chunk of its oil and gas assets even if crude prices bounce back from the COVID-19 crash because it wants to invest more in renewable energy, three sources familiar with BP’s thinking said.

The strategy was discussed at a BP executives meeting in July, the sources said, soon after the oil major lowered its long-term oil price forecast to $55 a barrel, meaning that $17.5 billion worth of its assets are no longer economically viable.

But even if crude prices bounce back to $65-$70 a barrel, BP is unlikely to put those assets back into its exploration plans and would instead use the better market conditions as an opportunity to sell them, the three sources said.

Major oil companies typically hold assets for the long term, even when crude prices plunge, with a view to start bringing more marginal production online when market conditions improve.

However, BP’s new divestment strategy, which has not previously been reported, means there will be no way back for the British energy company once it has offloaded its so-called stranded oil and gas assets.

BP did not respond to requests for comment.

The new strategy also sheds more light on chief executive Bernard Looney’s plan to reduce BP’s oil and gas production by 40 percent, or at least 1 million barrels per day, by 2030 while expanding into renewable energy.

“It is a simple calculation of natural production decline and planned divestment,” said a BP source, explaining how BP became the first big oil company to pledge a large cut in its oil output.

For decades, BP and rivals such as Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil have promised investors that production would continue to rise. But as climate activists, investors, banks and some governments raise pressure on the industry to reduce emissions to help cool the planet, European oil firms are changing tack and pledging to invest more in renewable energy sources.

US rivals are under less government pressure and have not made similar commitments on renewables.

“As we look at the outlook for BP over the next few years and as we see production declining by 40 percent it is clear we no longer need exploration to fund new growth,” Looney said this week. “We will not enter new countries to explore.”

He said that BP would continue to explore for oil near its existing production infrastructure as those barrels would be low cost — and help boost BP’s cash flow to fund its transition to cleaner energy.

BP also raised its target this week for returns from asset sales to $25 billion between 2020 and 2025, of which about $12 billion has already been lined up.

Parul Chopra, analyst at Rystad Energy, said in addition to Angola, he expected BP to move out of Azerbaijan, Oman, the UAE and Iraq.

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