ISLAMABAD: State Bank Governor Jameel Ahmad on Thursday met key international investors in the United States capital, Washington DC, and informed them about “substantial improvement” in Pakistan’s macroeconomic outlook in the last year.
Ahmad is accompanying Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb to IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where he met investors during multiple events organized by leading global banks and financial firms, including JP Morgan, Citibank and Jefferies. 
While in DC, the Pakistan team will also be starting negotiations for a new three-year multi-billion-dollar bailout deal from the IMF. 
“Governor SBP informed the participants about the substantial improvement in Pakistan’s macroeconomic outlook achieved over the past year as a result of a prudent monetary policy, backed adequately by fiscal consolidation and beginning of the implementation of key structural reforms,” a statement from the Pakistani economic affairs division said. 
Inflation declined sharply in Pakistan, reaching a two-year low of 20.7 percent in March 2024 from a peak of 38 percent in May 2023. 
“Deceleration in inflation is broad-based, reflecting the combined impact of monetary tightening, fiscal consolidation, ease in import supplies, improved agriculture output and base effect,” Ahmad told investors.
“More importantly, core inflation declined markedly, reaching 15.7 percent in March, after persistently staying above 20 percent throughout last year.”
He also said the external sector had stabilized, as reflected in a sharp reduction in the current account deficit (CAD) to $1 billion during Jul-Feb FY24 from $3.8 billion in the same period last year.
In addition to stabilization policies, improved agriculture output had contributed to higher food exports, while lowering the import demand of agri commodities like wheat and cotton. 
Workers’ remittances had also risen consistently since October 2023 on a year-on-year basis, driven by incentives and regulatory measures to divert inflows toward formal channels. 
“These qualitative improvements in the external account have allowed the SBP to more than double its FX reserves from January 2023 ($3.1 billion) to around $8 billion on 12 April 2024 despite the repayment of a $1 billion Eurobond on the same day. At the same time, the SBP’s forward liabilities have also reduced significantly from $5.7billion in January 2023 to $ 3.4billion in February 2024.”
Ahmad also spoke about the improvement in the country’s external debt dynamics, with a reduction in the gross financing requirements due to sizable CAD contraction. Moreover, the maturity profile of external debt had also improved, with the share of relatively costly short-term commercial loans declining while the share of long term concessional financing from multilateral agencies, coupled with support from bilateral partners, which was rising.
“Ahmad also noted a recent pickup in inflows from overseas Pakistanis via Roshan Digital Accounts and also by other foreign investors, on the back of strong performance in achieving the targets and benchmarks under the IMF SBA program,” the statement said.
“Going forward, the government is hopeful of signing a long term IMF program, which will facilitate additional external financing and the adoption of structural reforms to deal with longstanding issues in the economy.”
The governor also highlighted SBP’s efforts to provide a conducive macroeconomic environment for the private sector to invest in the economy. 
The SBP’s Strategic Plan 2028 aims to facilitate growth by achieving price and financial stability.
“In this regard, Mr. Ahmad highlighted the widespread adoption of digital technologies to address gaps in access to financial services and to revolutionize the domestic payments system,” the economic affairs division said. “These time-bound reforms are expected to put the economy on the path of sustainable economic growth.”

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s new government does not anticipate any significant currency devaluation as part of its negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to unlock billions of dollars in lending and bolster the nation’s economic reform agenda, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in an interview to Bloomberg published on Thursday. 
While massive devaluations have accompanied some of Pakistan’s previous IMF loans and are often a condition of the crisis lender’s programs around the world, nothing comparable should be necessary this time around, Aurangzeb said in an interview on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.
“I don’t see the need for any step change,” Aurangzeb said, citing solid foreign-exchange reserves, a stable currency, rising remittances and steady exports. “The only thing which can be a wild card, although in our projections we should be OK, is the oil price.”
He added there would be no reason for the rupee to depreciate more than the range of about 6 percent to 8 percent seen in a typical year. 
Pakistan last devalued its currency in January 2023.
Aurangzeb, 59, said the new government in Islamabad was looking to bolster industries including agriculture and information technology with support that it hopes will help push the nation’s growth above 4 percent in the coming years.
In its talks with the IMF, Pakistan plans to seek a traditional IMF loan through the institution’s so-called extended fund facility. It also wants to get money via the IMF’s new Resilience and Sustainability Trust, which works to strengthen low-income and vulnerable countries against external shocks like floods that devastated Pakistan in 2022.
One of the new government’s tasks will be to steer the country out of a high-inflation and low-growth pattern. It also faces about $24 billion in external financing needs in the fiscal year starting July, about three times its reserves. 
Aurangzeb said Pakistan was in “relatively good shape” to make those payments.
Pakistan needs to repay “a couple of billion dollars” in the present fiscal year but reserves are expected to reach around $10 billion by the end of June from $8 billion now, said Aurangzeb. The dollar reserves currently cover about two months of imports.
Pakistan expects an IMF mission to visit in May and would like to reach a staff-level agreement on its next loan by the end of June or early July, Aurangzeb said, without specifying how much the nation was seeking. Bloomberg News earlier reported that the nation plans to ask for at least $6 billion.
Securing a new deal may also boost Pakistan’s dollar bonds and stock market, which have handed investors one of the best gains globally since the nation began the current IMF loan last July. The IMF executive board is expected to approve the final disbursement this month from the nation’s existing $3 billion loan that helped it avert a default on its debt last year.
Key objectives in the loan negotiations will include broadening the tax base, improving debt sustainability and restoring viability to the energy sector, the IMF said last month. These are steps that Pakistan has avoided for decades because of their unpopularity among a nation of more than 250 million people.
Pakistan in recent years increased tax revenue and energy prices to meet IMF demands but hasn’t been able to make progress on long-term structural issues such as privatizing state-owned companies.