Libya policy threatens Turkey, Russia alliance

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan give a joint press conference following their talks in the Black sea resort of Sochi on October 22, 2019. (AFP)
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Updated 28 December 2019
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Libya policy threatens Turkey, Russia alliance

  • Rift may intensify following Erdogan’s decision to send troops to Libya

ANKARA: Experts say that the rift between Moscow and Ankara over policy differences in Libya may intensify following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to send troops to Libya at the request of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA).

The presence of a senior Turkish delegation in Moscow on Monday to meet their Russian counterparts is considered an effort to avert a major bilateral crisis.

Although welcoming attempts for resolving the crisis in the North African country, Russia is against any interference in Libya’s internal affairs by an outsider, the Russian president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Thursday.

“We have repeatedly reiterated Russia’s stance on the Libyan crisis. Moscow is seeking a prompt resolution of the conflict and an end to the bloodshed in the country,” Peskov said.

Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Federation Council’s International Affairs Committee, wrote on his official Facebook page that Turkish military intervention in Libya could be the worst scenario.

Kosachev also criticized Erdogan’s recent claims that the Kremlin-linked Wagner group is in Libya with 2,000 mercenaries supporting Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s forces. Erdogan condemned the Russian presence in Libya, saying they had not been invited by the official government.

“To put it kindly, considering the level of our bilateral relations, it is not accurate to hear such statements from Ankara,” Kosachev said.

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The comments from the Kremlin side were made after Erdogan’s announcement that he would submit a motion to the Parliament early next month to use Turkish troops in Libya.

Parliamentary approval is required for deploying Turkish troops although there is a military cooperation deal between both parties. The prospect of setting foot in Libya also boosts the nationalist narrative in Turkey.

Samuel Ramani, a geopolitical analyst and doctoral candidate at the University of Oxford, UK, points to the risk of an Ankara-Moscow confrontation ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Turkey on Jan. 8.

All eyes are now on this planned visit which will be dominated not only by the opening of the TurkStream natural gas pipeline, but also by developments in Libya.

“Erdogan and Putin have consulted each other on carving out zones of influence in Libya to avoid conflict, but the potential for a clash is real,” Ramani told Arab News.

In Syria and Libya, Russia and Turkey are backing rival parties. Turkey supports Fayez Al-Serraj’s GNA in Tripoli, which controls the west of the country, while Russia is backing its rival, Haftar’s eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA).

According to Ramani, any confrontation between Ankara and Moscow would be unwelcome and have repercussions at a time when both powers are trying to reach a settlement on Idlib and Syrian refugee repatriation.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently claimed that Turkey-backed Syrian rebels have opened recruitment centers in northern Aleppo for dispatching young fighters to Libya through Turkey with a monthly salary of up to $2,000.

According to a UN report last month, Turkey has already sent military supplies to the GNA in breach of the arms embargo.

In anticipation of more military engagement, the Turkish Red Crescent is also gearing up to open a branch in Libya in the first months of 2020.

Michael Tanchum, a senior associate fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES), told Arab News that Russia does not want chaos in Libya, and the Kremlin would like to continue to use Turkey to keep NATO divided and off-balance.

“Erdogan’s best pitch to Putin is that if the GNA falls there will be more war and instability and that the Turkey-Russia partnership in managing Libya is a better option. Despite the previous flexibility that Russia has shown toward Turkey’s strategic ambitions, the Libya case may be different,” he said. “Sufficient weight needs be given to the Russia-Egypt and Russia-UAE relationships when assessing Russia’s strategic calculus. All these factors are at play.”

The special representative of Putin for the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Mikhail Bogdanov, met yesterday separately with the Libyan and Turkish ambassadors.

For Timur Akhmetov, a researcher at the Russian International Affairs Council, Russia is facing a dilemma where it should embrace Turkish demands for participation in Libyan affairs but keep Turkish participation not critical to Russian interests.

“The general trend now is that Turkey, while being isolated in the region, enforces its diplomatic stance with heavier reliance on hard power, but it doesn’t necessarily mean Ankara’s intrinsic inclination to hostilities; hard times demand desperate measures,” he told Arab News.

For Akhmetov, Russia would probably accept Turkish involvement to an extent where its role suits or facilitates Russian long-term interests such as stabilization of the conflict, securing economic assets or eventually making all major belligerent sides accept a final resolution.


US says it destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels as Iran threatens to block Gulf oil exports

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US says it destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels as Iran threatens to block Gulf oil exports

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: The US said it took out more than a dozen mine-laying Iranian vessels Tuesday, and the Islamic Republic vowed to block the region’s oil exports, saying it would not allow “even a single liter” to be shipped to its enemies.
As concerns grew about the war’s effect on a strategic waterway, the American military said it destroyed 16 minelayers, though President Donald Trump said in social media posts that there were no reports of Iran planting explosives in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil is shipped.
The American military released the figure, along with unclassified footage of some of the vessels, after Trump threatened to hit Iran at “a level never seen before” if the country failed to immediately remove any mines it might have deployed in the channel.
Both sides sharpened their rhetoric as the war entered its 11th day. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised the most intense strikes yet while the Pentagon detailed the broader toll of injuries sustained by US troops.
The conflict’s effects rippled across the Middle East and beyond. Iranian leaders ruled out talks, threatened Trump and launched new attacks against Israel and Gulf Arab countries.
In Iran, residents of Tehran said they experienced some of the war’s heaviest strikes. A woman said she saw a residential building get hit. She and others reached by The Associated Press spoke on condition of anonymity to prevent reprisals. Tens of thousands of Iranians have sought shelter in the countryside.
Lebanon reports more deaths
Multiple Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon killed seven people, the Lebanese Health Ministry said early Wednesday.
Other deaths included a Red Cross member who died early Wednesday after an Israeli strike targeted his team Monday while they were rescuing people following an earlier attack, the health ministry said. On Tuesday, Israeli airstrikes killed four people, including a paramedic who worked for the Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Authority who was treating the wounded.
Also Tuesday, an Israeli strike killed a Lebanese soldier, the Lebanese army said, bringing the number of troops killed there to five since the conflict began.
Israel said it was working to intercept missiles from Iran and Hezbollah, which began firing on Israel after the start of the war.
Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry said early Wednesday that it intercepted multiple missiles launched toward several sites, including Prince Sultan Air Base, a major US- and Saudi-operated air facility. The ministry said it also destroyed drones near two major cities and more headed toward the kingdom’s vast Shaybah oil field in the Empty Quarter desert.
In Iraq, drones targeted military bases inside Baghdad International Airport late Tuesday, two security officials told AP on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press. Some drones fell near Iraqi security positions, while others landed near logistical support sites used by US-led coalition forces, one official said.
The United Arab Emirates said early Wednesday that its air defenses were firing at incoming Iranian fire. The wealthy Gulf nation — home to the business and travel hub of Dubai — said Iranian attacks have killed six people and wounded 122 others.
Bahrain sounded sirens early Wednesday, warning of an incoming Iranian attack. The warnings came a day after an Iranian attack hit a residential building in the capital, Manama, and killed a 29-year-old woman and wounding eight people.
Pentagon says 140 US troops wounded since war began
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said US forces hit more than 5,000 targets.
The Pentagon separately said Tuesday that about 140 US service members have been wounded in the war, and the “vast majority” of the injuries were minor, with 108 service members already back on duty. Eight US service members suffered severe injuries, and seven have been killed.
In Iran, at least 1,230 people have been killed, while the death toll is more than 480 in Lebanon and 12 in Israel, according to officials.
Iran’s leaders have remained defiant after days of heavy strikes targeting the country’s leadership, military, ballistic missiles and its disputed nuclear program. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said on X that Iran was “definitely not looking for a ceasefire.”
“We believe that the aggressor should be punched in the mouth so that he learns a lesson so that he will never think of attacking our beloved Iran again,” he said.
A top Iranian security official, Ali Larijani, posted a warning to Trump, writing on X that “Even those bigger than you couldn’t eliminate Iran. Be careful not to get eliminated yourself.” Iran has been accused of plotting attempts to kill Trump in the past.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, faced growing scrutiny at home about the war.
“I’m not sure what the end game is, or what their plans are,” Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada said after a classified briefing that the Trump administration held Tuesday for some lawmakers.
Saudi Arabia’s oil giant says tankers being rerouted to avoid Strait of Hormuz
Iran has repeatedly targeted energy infrastructure with attacks that appear aimed at generating enough global economic pain to pressure the US and Israel to end their strikes. It has also fired on Israel and US military bases in the region.
The US stock market held steadier Tuesday as Wall Street waited for the next clue on when the war with Iran may end.
Oil prices, meanwhile, remained well below their peaks hit on Monday. Such spikes have been rocking financial markets worldwide because of worries that the war could block the global flow of oil and natural gas for a long time.
Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard said it “will not allow the export of even a single liter of oil from the region to the hostile side and its partners until further notice.”
Amin Nasser, the president and CEO of Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco, said tankers were being rerouted to avoid the strait, and that the company’s east-west pipeline would reach its full capacity this week of 7 million barrels a day being brought to the Red Sea port of the Yanbu.
“The situation at the Strait of Hormuz is blocking sizable volumes of oil from the whole region,” he said. “If this takes a long time, that will have serious impact on the global economy.”
Foreign nationals get out of region
The UN refugee agency said Tuesday that more than 667,000 people in Lebanon had registered as displaced — an increase of over 100,000 since a day earlier — and more than 85,000 people from Lebanon, mostly Syrians, had entered neighboring Syria.
The British government said the number of commercial flights from the UAE to the UK is returning to normal levels, with 32 flights operated Monday from Dubai to Britain and another 36 scheduled Tuesday. British Airways, however, said it suspended flights to and from Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Dubai and Tel Aviv until later this month.
Many foreign nationals have been getting out of the Arabian Gulf region since the war began, including over 45,000 UK citizens, the British Foreign Office said. Some 40,000 people returned to the United States, according to the State Department.