OSLO: Bookmakers seem confident that Swedish teen climate activist Greta Thunberg is a shoo-in for the Nobel Peace Prize to be announced this week, but some experts are more cautious.
The 16-year-old has already received Amnesty International’s top honor and the Right Livelihood Award, sometimes dubbed the “alternative Nobel,” and online betting sites like Ladbrokes now put her as favorite to win what is perhaps the world’s most prestigious prize.
In an interview with Swiss broadcaster RTS in August, Thunberg stressed that while the award would be “a recognition for this movement,” she and her supporters weren’t “doing this to get awards and prizes.”
In August last year, she began sitting alone in front of Sweden’s parliament on Fridays with a sign reading “School Strike for the Climate.”
In a little more than a year, she has galvanized millions of young people around the world to take part in demonstrations to raise awareness for action on climate change.
She made global headlines in late September when she lambasted world leaders at the UN climate summit in New York.
“How dare you? You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words,” she told them, holding back tears.
But is her impassioned wake-up call enough to earn her the Nobel Peace Prize?
“Extremely unlikely,” Henrik Urdal, director of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (Prio), told AFP, citing two reasons for his skepticism.
He argued that while some say climate change might aggravate conflicts in his view there is still no consensus on whether it is actually the cause of armed conflict. He also said her tender age could make the prize more of a burden than a reward.
“The only way I could see that happen is that she would be part of a shared prize like Malala,” Urdal said, referring to Pakistani activist Malala Yousafzai, who shared the 2014 prize — at age 17 — with Indian children’s rights activist Kailash Satyarthi.
Norwegian historian Asle Sveen echoed that view.
“Of course she is now an international star, in conflict with Donald Trump, and she put the searchlight on climate change better than anyone else,” he said.
“What’s against her is that she is only 16 years old,” he continued, adding that he would be “very surprised” if she got the award.
But Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), believes Thunberg should be considered a “serious candidate” and that climate change is linked to conflict.
“First of all, I think that what she has done over the past year is extraordinary,” Smith told AFP.
“I think that climate change is an issue which is strongly related to security and peace.”
Experts think a more likely candidate would be Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who made peace with bitter foe Eritrea.
“Abiy Ahmed would be a good candidate, as his tenure has had peace-inducing effects in the country and on the region,” said Peter Wallensteen, professor of Peace and Conflict Research at Sweden’s Uppsala University.
Predicting the winner is always a challenge since the Norwegian Nobel Committee never reveals the names of the nominees. All that is known is that a total of 301 individuals and organizations have been nominated this year.
Experts also suggest that the five-person committee could this year decide to focus on freedom of expression and information, at a time when such freedoms are under pressure in both democracies and authoritarian regimes.
“In the age of fake news and information overload... and the lack of transparency, the lack of accountability in many political processes, this is something that I would hope the committee would take very seriously and consider,” Urdal said.
Press organizations such as Reporters Without Borders (RSF) or the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) could then be possible winners.
As the migration crisis continues to dominate the political agenda, the UN refugee agency UNHCR and its head Filippo Grandi, as well as the organization SOS Mediterranee, are also seen as potential winners.
Broadly considered a controversial long shot, US President Donald Trump has nonetheless been mentioned for his efforts to mend old wounds with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
The 2019 laureate will be revealed on Friday at 11:00 am (0900 GMT) at the Nobel Institute in Oslo.
Last year, the award — consisting of a gold medal, a diploma, and nine million Swedish kronor — was given to two champions fighting sexual violence, Congolese gynaecologist Denis Mukwege and Yazidi activist Nadia Murad.
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Odds favor Greta Thunberg for Peace Prize, but experts skeptical
Odds favor Greta Thunberg for Peace Prize, but experts skeptical
- The 16-year-old has already received Amnesty International’s top honor and the Right Livelihood Award, sometimes dubbed the “alternative Nobel”
- “The only way I could see that happen is that she would be part of a shared prize like Malala,” a Peace Research Institute official said
Court records raise doubts that ICE is detaining the ‘worst of the worst’ in Maine
- Federal officials say more than 100 people have been detained statewide enforcement ‘Operation Catch of the Day’
- ICE has said the operation is targeting about 1,400 immigrants in a state of about 1.4 million people
PORTLAND, Maine: Immigration and Customs Enforcement has highlighted the detention of people whom it called some of Maine’s most dangerous criminals during operations this past week, but court records paint a more complicated picture.
Federal officials say more than 100 people have been detained statewide in what ICE dubbed “Operation Catch of the Day,” a reference to the fishing industry. ICE said in a statement that it was arresting the “worst of the worst,” including “child abusers and hostage takers.”
Court records show some were violent felons. But they also show other detainees with unresolved immigration proceedings or who were arrested but never convicted of a crime.
Immigration attorneys and local officials say similar concerns have surfaced in other cities where ICE has conducted enforcement surges and many of those targeted lacked criminal records.
One case highlighted by ICE that involves serious felony offenses and criminal convictions is that of Sudan native Dominic Ali. ICE said Ali was convicted of false imprisonment, aggravated assault, assault, obstructing justice and violating a protective order.
Court records show Ali was convicted in 2004 of violating a protective order and in 2008 of second-degree assault, false imprisonment and obstructing the reporting of a crime. In the latter case, prosecutors said he threw his girlfriend to the floor of her New Hampshire apartment, kicked her and broke her collarbone.
“His conduct amounted to nothing less than torture,” Judge James Barry said in 2009 before sentencing Ali to five to 10 years in prison.
Ali was later paroled to ICE custody, and in 2013 an immigration judge ordered his removal. No further information was available from the Executive Office for Immigration Review, and it remains unclear what happened after that order.
Other cases were more nuanced, like that of Elmara Correia, an Angola native whom ICE highlighted in its public promotion of the operation, saying she was “arrested previously for endangering the welfare of a child.”
Maine court records show someone with that name was charged in 2023 with violating a law related to learner’s permits for new drivers, a case that was later dismissed.
Correia filed a petition Wednesday challenging her detention, and a judge issued a temporary emergency order barring authorities from transferring her from Massachusetts, where she is being held. Her attorney said she entered the United States legally on a student visa about eight years ago and has never been subject to expedited removal proceedings.
“Was she found not guilty, or are we just going to be satisfied that she was arrested?” Portland Mayor Mark Dion said during a news conference in which he raised concerns that ICE failed to distinguish between arrests and convictions or explain whether sentences were served.
Dion also pointed to another person named in the release: Dany Lopez-Cortez, whom ICE said is a “criminal illegal alien” from Guatemala who was convicted of operating under the influence.
ICE highlighted Lopez-Cortez’s case among a small group of examples it said reflected the types of arrests made during the operation. Dion questioned whether an operating-under-the-influence conviction, a serious offense but one commonly seen in Maine, should rise to the level of ICE’s “worst of the worst” public narrative.
Boston immigration attorney Caitlyn Burgess said her office filed habeas petitions Thursday on behalf of four clients who were detained in Maine and transferred to Massachusetts.
The most serious charge any of them faced was driving without a license, Burgess said, and all had pending immigration court cases or applications.
“Habeas petitions are often the only tool available to stop rapid transfers that sever access to counsel and disrupt pending immigration proceedings,” she said.
Attorney Samantha McHugh said she filed five habeas petitions on behalf of Maine detainees Thursday and expected to file three more soon.
“None of these individuals have any criminal record,” said McHugh, who is representing a total of eight detainees. “They were simply at work, eating lunch, when unmarked vehicles arrived and immigration agents trespassed on private property to detain them.”
Federal court records show that immigration cases involving criminal convictions can remain unresolved or be revisited years later.
Another whose mug shot was included in materials on “the worst of the worst” of those detained in Maine is Ambessa Berhe.
Berhe was convicted of cocaine possession and assaulting a police officer in 1996 and cocaine possession in 2003.
In 2006 a federal appeals court in Boston vacated a removal order for him and sent the case back to the Board of Immigration Appeals for further consideration.
According to the ruling, Berhe was born in Ethiopia and later taken to Sudan by his adoptive parents. The family was admitted to the United States as refugees in 1987, when he was about 9.
ICE has said the operation is targeting about 1,400 immigrants in a state of about 1.4 million people, roughly four percent of whom are foreign-born.
Federal officials say more than 100 people have been detained statewide in what ICE dubbed “Operation Catch of the Day,” a reference to the fishing industry. ICE said in a statement that it was arresting the “worst of the worst,” including “child abusers and hostage takers.”
Court records show some were violent felons. But they also show other detainees with unresolved immigration proceedings or who were arrested but never convicted of a crime.
Immigration attorneys and local officials say similar concerns have surfaced in other cities where ICE has conducted enforcement surges and many of those targeted lacked criminal records.
One case highlighted by ICE that involves serious felony offenses and criminal convictions is that of Sudan native Dominic Ali. ICE said Ali was convicted of false imprisonment, aggravated assault, assault, obstructing justice and violating a protective order.
Court records show Ali was convicted in 2004 of violating a protective order and in 2008 of second-degree assault, false imprisonment and obstructing the reporting of a crime. In the latter case, prosecutors said he threw his girlfriend to the floor of her New Hampshire apartment, kicked her and broke her collarbone.
“His conduct amounted to nothing less than torture,” Judge James Barry said in 2009 before sentencing Ali to five to 10 years in prison.
Ali was later paroled to ICE custody, and in 2013 an immigration judge ordered his removal. No further information was available from the Executive Office for Immigration Review, and it remains unclear what happened after that order.
Other cases were more nuanced, like that of Elmara Correia, an Angola native whom ICE highlighted in its public promotion of the operation, saying she was “arrested previously for endangering the welfare of a child.”
Maine court records show someone with that name was charged in 2023 with violating a law related to learner’s permits for new drivers, a case that was later dismissed.
Correia filed a petition Wednesday challenging her detention, and a judge issued a temporary emergency order barring authorities from transferring her from Massachusetts, where she is being held. Her attorney said she entered the United States legally on a student visa about eight years ago and has never been subject to expedited removal proceedings.
“Was she found not guilty, or are we just going to be satisfied that she was arrested?” Portland Mayor Mark Dion said during a news conference in which he raised concerns that ICE failed to distinguish between arrests and convictions or explain whether sentences were served.
Dion also pointed to another person named in the release: Dany Lopez-Cortez, whom ICE said is a “criminal illegal alien” from Guatemala who was convicted of operating under the influence.
ICE highlighted Lopez-Cortez’s case among a small group of examples it said reflected the types of arrests made during the operation. Dion questioned whether an operating-under-the-influence conviction, a serious offense but one commonly seen in Maine, should rise to the level of ICE’s “worst of the worst” public narrative.
Boston immigration attorney Caitlyn Burgess said her office filed habeas petitions Thursday on behalf of four clients who were detained in Maine and transferred to Massachusetts.
The most serious charge any of them faced was driving without a license, Burgess said, and all had pending immigration court cases or applications.
“Habeas petitions are often the only tool available to stop rapid transfers that sever access to counsel and disrupt pending immigration proceedings,” she said.
Attorney Samantha McHugh said she filed five habeas petitions on behalf of Maine detainees Thursday and expected to file three more soon.
“None of these individuals have any criminal record,” said McHugh, who is representing a total of eight detainees. “They were simply at work, eating lunch, when unmarked vehicles arrived and immigration agents trespassed on private property to detain them.”
Federal court records show that immigration cases involving criminal convictions can remain unresolved or be revisited years later.
Another whose mug shot was included in materials on “the worst of the worst” of those detained in Maine is Ambessa Berhe.
Berhe was convicted of cocaine possession and assaulting a police officer in 1996 and cocaine possession in 2003.
In 2006 a federal appeals court in Boston vacated a removal order for him and sent the case back to the Board of Immigration Appeals for further consideration.
According to the ruling, Berhe was born in Ethiopia and later taken to Sudan by his adoptive parents. The family was admitted to the United States as refugees in 1987, when he was about 9.
ICE has said the operation is targeting about 1,400 immigrants in a state of about 1.4 million people, roughly four percent of whom are foreign-born.
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