Britain on the cusp of recession

Property developments are pictured in the City of London. Britain’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter of this year on Brexit turmoil, official data showed, placing the country on the verge of recession. (AFP)
Updated 11 August 2019
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Britain on the cusp of recession

  • Dramatic slump in construction and manufacturing sectors blamed for fall in UK gross domestic product

LONDON: Britain’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter of the year on Brexit turmoil, official data showed, placing the country on the verge of recession and sending the pound tumbling to a 2.5-year low.
Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.2 percent in the April-June period, the first time the economy has contracted in almost seven years, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement, blaming a dramatic slump in the construction and manufacturing sectors.
The data, which was worse than market expectations for zero growth and also reflects global economic strains, sent the pound diving to $1.2056 — the lowest level since early 2017.
Another contraction in the current third quarter would put Britain in an official recession, ahead of the nation’s expected withdrawal from the EU at the end of October.
“The latest data reveal an economy in decline and skirting with recession as headwinds from slower global economic growth are exacerbated by Brexit-related paralysis,” said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson.
The result contrasted with 0.5-percent expansion in the first quarter, when activity was boosted by companies stockpiling ahead of Brexit.
Output was buoyed in the first three months of 2019 because Britain had initially been scheduled to leave the EU at the end of March.
“GDP contracted in the second quarter for the first time since 2012 after robust growth in the first quarter,” said Rob Kent Smith, ONS head of GDP.
“Manufacturing output fell back after a strong start to the year, with production brought forward ahead of the UK’s original departure date from the EU.
“The construction sector also weakened after a buoyant beginning to the year, while the often-dominant service sector delivered virtually no growth at all,” he added.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May after winning the Conservatives’ leadership contest on a pledge to take Britain out of the bloc on Oct. 31 with or without a divorce deal.

The latest data reveal an economy in decline and skirting with recession as headwinds from slower global economic growth are exacerbated by Brexit-related paralysis

Chris Williamson, IHS Markit economist

Brexiteer Johnson, a pivotal “Leave” campaigner in the 2016 EU exit referendum, has repeatedly insisted that Britain can make an economic success of Brexit.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid on Friday said that the global economy was slowing, but highlighted other recent positive data for the UK.
“This is a challenging period across the global economy, with growth slowing in many countries,” said Javid.
“But the fundamentals of the British economy are strong — wages are growing, employment is at a record high and we’re forecast to grow faster than Germany, Italy and Japan this year,” he added.
“The government is determined to provide certainty to people and businesses on Brexit — that’s why we are clear that the UK is leaving the EU on Oct. 31.”
The government’s official forecaster last month warned that Britain would slide into a year-long recession should it leave the EU without a deal.
Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney recently warned that a no-deal Brexit could undermine entire sectors of the economy such as the car industry and farming.
“The latest look at the UK economy makes for pretty grim viewing,” XTB analyst David Cheetham said in reference to Friday’s data.
“Given the growing threat of a no-deal Brexit that looms menacingly overhead, it would not be at all surprising if the current quarter also shows a contraction — therefore meeting the standard definition of a recession.”
May stepped down after failing to get her EU-divorce deal through parliament and being forced to delay Brexit twice.


Aramco, Microsoft sign pact to accelerate industrial AI rollout 

Updated 11 sec ago
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Aramco, Microsoft sign pact to accelerate industrial AI rollout 

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco signed a memorandum of understanding with Microsoft to explore industrial artificial intelligence initiatives aimed at improving operational efficiency, strengthening digital sovereignty, and expanding the Kingdom’s technical workforce. 

The non-binding agreement builds on a long-standing partnership between the state energy giant and the US technology firm, focusing on deploying AI-driven industrial solutions built on Microsoft Azure and embedding them into core operations. 

The companies will examine ways to co-develop and commercialize industrial AI systems for the energy sector, including the potential creation of a global marketplace for Saudi-developed technologies, according to a joint press release. 

Ahmad O. Al Khowaiter, Aramco executive vice president of Technology & Innovation, said: “Aramco is driving the energy sector’s digital transformation by creating a secure, intelligent, and collaborative digital ecosystem.”  

He added: “In partnership with Microsoft, we seek to further scale cutting-edge digital and AI solutions in that sector to achieve efficiency and innovation — without compromising the highest standards of security and governance.” 

A key component of the agreement is digital sovereignty. The companies will explore a roadmap for deploying Microsoft cloud solutions with enhanced sovereign controls to meet national data residency requirements, an area of increasing focus for Gulf governments seeking greater control over strategic data infrastructure. 

The pact also includes plans to streamline Aramco’s global digital architecture and engage Saudi technology integrators to expand AI adoption across the industrial value chain. 

Beyond infrastructure, the collaboration emphasizes workforce development. The companies are exploring targeted programs to expand skills in AI engineering, cybersecurity, data governance, and product management, building on Microsoft’s existing training initiatives in the Kingdom. 

“This marks the next step in our long-standing collaboration with Aramco, exploring how industrial AI can move from pilots into core operations to improve efficiency and resilience at scale,” said Brad Smith, Microsoft vice chair and president. 

He added: “Our focus is on building strong foundations — sovereign-ready digital infrastructure, trusted governance, and the skills needed for responsible industrial AI adoption.”  

As a global industry leader, he said, Aramco has the opportunity to set a reference for large-scale, responsible industrial AI transformation aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.