Amid data ambiguity, government claims lowest external public debt in three years

In this file photo Prime Minister Imran Khan chairs meeting on development projects funded by the Federal Government. - APP
Updated 28 July 2019
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Amid data ambiguity, government claims lowest external public debt in three years

  • Statement says external inflows during outgoing fiscal year were $10.186 billion, including grants of $330 million
  • In all measures, external debt accumulation in FY19 is less than in preceding year: Hammad Azhar

KARACHI: Pakistan’s net addition to its external public debt for FY2018-19 was its lowest in three years at less than $2.3 billion, according to a press statement released by the country’s Economic Affairs Division (EAD) on Friday, which has caused some confusion among experts. 
Total external inflow in the outgoing fiscal year was $10.186 billion, including grants of $330 million and loans of $9.85 billion, the EAD further said, and added that the government spent $8.94 billion on debt servicing.
This brought the total addition to the public debt to $2.29 billion, it said. 
But Hammad Azhar, the federal minister for the EAD, said the net increase in Pakistan’s external public debt stock was approximately $2.5 billion against last year’s $8.6 billion. The net increase in total external debt and liabilities was $10 billion against $13 billion of the previous year.
The data updated on the EAD’s own website and titled “Disbursements against budget estimates of foreign economic assistance 2018-19,” shows that the government received $10.81 billion, which does not include inflows from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.
The EAD’s press release added that the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank disbursed $541.17 million and $652.75 million respectively during FY2018-19, as compared to $945.69 million and $817.54 million during FY2017-18. It explained the slowdown in disbursement from political partners was due to “a period of political transition in the country.”
“With the restoration of confidence of international financial institutions and good prospects of budgetary support, the government is expecting very strong inflows from its development partners this year,” the statement said.
But economic experts told Arab News on Saturday that the press release had caused confusion about official figures.
“There is confusion about the data. Net debt stock was $96 billion by the end of June 2018. The net addition would be $10-12 billion,” Dr. Ashfaque Hassan Khan, a senior economist and member of the Economic Advisory Council, told Arab News.
The government had failed to factor in deposits from the Gulf countries and China, “even though we are paying interest on the loans extended to us,” he said.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Pakistan’s total external debt stock in FY 2018-19 was $104.16 billion which is projected to increase to $112.5 billion in the current fiscal year. 
“See, they are saying two things,” Muzzamil Aslam, a senior economist, told Arab News. “They are saying that they have raised $16 billion, and our loans have increased by $10 billion. But they are also saying that our net loan has increased by $2.2 billion,” he said. 
But EAD chief Hammad Azhar said the data was showing a clear trajectory of decreasing debt accumulation. 
“Each measure, categorization of external debt [has been] listed separately,” Azhar said and added, “In all measures, external debt accumulation is less than preceding year.”
Though dates for the announcement are yet unconfirmed, Pakistan’s central bank will have the final word on official figures of external debt. 


Pakistan, China to sign multiple MoUs at major agriculture investment conference today

Updated 59 min 10 sec ago
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Pakistan, China to sign multiple MoUs at major agriculture investment conference today

  • Hundreds of Chinese and Pakistani firms to attend Islamabad event
  • Conference seen as part of expanding CPEC ties into agriculture, trade

KARACHI: Islamabad and Beijing are set to sign multiple memorandums of understanding (MoUs) to boost agricultural investment and cooperation at a major conference taking place in the capital today, Monday, with hundreds of Chinese and Pakistani companies expected to participate.

The conference is being billed by Pakistan’s Ministry of National Food Security and Research as a platform for deepening bilateral agricultural ties and supporting broader economic engagement between the two countries.

“Multiple memorandums of understanding will be signed at the Pakistan–China Agricultural Conference,” the Ministry of National Food Security said in a statement. “115 Chinese and 165 Pakistani companies will participate.”

The conference reflects a growing emphasis on expanding Pakistan-China economic cooperation beyond the transport and energy foundations of the flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into agriculture, industry and technology.

Under its first phase launched in 2015, CPEC, a core component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, focused primarily on transportation infrastructure, energy generation and connectivity projects linking western China to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan. That phase included motorways, power plants and the development of the Gwadar Port in the country's southwest, aimed at helping Pakistan address chronic power shortages and enhance transport connectivity.

In recent years, both governments have formally moved toward a “CPEC 2.0” phase aimed at diversifying the corridor’s impact into areas such as special economic zones, innovation, digital cooperation and agriculture. Second-phase discussions have highlighted Pakistan’s goal of modernizing its agricultural sector, attracting Chinese technology and investment, and boosting export potential, with high-level talks taking place between planning officials and investors in Beijing.

Agri-sector cooperation has also seen practical collaboration, with joint initiatives examining technology transfer, export protocols and value-chain development, including partnerships in livestock, mechanization and horticulture.

Organizers say the Islamabad conference will bring together government policymakers, private sector investors, industry associations and multinational agribusiness firms from both nations. Discussions will center on investment opportunities, technology adoption, export expansion and building linkages with global buyers within the framework of Pakistan-China economic cooperation.