Oil market oversupplied in 2019 on US production: energy watchdog

The International Energy Agency predicted that global oil stocks could rise by 136 million barrels by the end of the first quarter of 2020. (Reuters)
Updated 12 July 2019

Oil market oversupplied in 2019 on US production: energy watchdog

  • The demand for OPEC crude oil in early 2020 could fall to only 28 million barrels per day

LONDON: Surging US oil output will outpace sluggish global demand and lead to a large stock build around the world in the next nine months, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
The forecasts appear to predict the need for producer club OPEC and its allies to reduce production to balance the market despite extending their existing pact, forecasting a fall in demand for OPEC crude to only 28 million barrels per day (bpd) in early 2020.
“Market tightness is not an issue for the time being and any rebalancing seems to have moved further into the future,” the IEA said in its monthly report.
“Clearly, this presents a major challenge to those who have taken on the task of market management,” it added, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and producer allies such as Russia.
The demand for OPEC crude oil in early 2020 could fall to only 28 million bpd, it added, with non-OPEC expansion in 2020 rising by 2.1 million bpd — a full 2 million bpd of which is expected to come from the United States.
At current OPEC output levels of 30 million bpd, the IEA predicted that global oil stocks could rise by 136 million barrels by the end of the first quarter of 2020.
Maintaining its forecasts for oil demand for the rest of 2019 and 2020, the Paris-based agency cited expected improvement in US-China trade relations and US economic expansion as encouraging but flagged tailwinds elsewhere.
“There are indications of deteriorating trade and manufacturing activity. Recent data show that global manufacturing output in 2Q19 fell for the first time since late 2012 and new orders have declined at a fast pace,” it said.
The IEA said that markets were concerned by escalating tension between Iran and the West over oil tankers leaving the Gulf but that incidents in the region’s shipping lanes have been overshadowed by supply concerns.
“The oil price impact has been minimal with no real security of supply premium,” the IEA said. “For now, maritime operations in the region are close to normal and markets remain calm.”
Tightened US sanctions on Iranian crude drove down Tehran’s June exports by 450,000 bpd to 530,000 bpd, near three-decade lows.


Yemen’s Safer oil company resumes pumping to Arabian Sea terminal

Updated 16 October 2019

Yemen’s Safer oil company resumes pumping to Arabian Sea terminal

  • Yemen’s oil output has collapsed since after the Iran-backed Houthi militia overthrew the internationally recognized government
  • Yemen produced an average of 50,000 bpd of crude in 2018 compared with around 127,000 bpd in 2014

DUBAI: Yemen’s Safer oil company resumed pumping oil from its fields in Shabwa in southern Yemen to a terminal on the Arabian sea for export abroad, a company official told Reuters on Wednesday.
Safer, owned by the internationally recognized government of Yemen, is currently pumping at a rate of 5,000 barrels per day and expects to ramp up pipeline throughput to 15,000 barrels per day, the official said.
Yemen’s oil output has collapsed since after the Iran-backed Houthi militia overthrew the internationally recognized government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Sanaa.
Hadi’s government controls the oil-producing provinces of Shabwa and Hadramout, while the Houthi group controls the capital Sanaa and the oil terminal of Ras Issa on the Red Sea coast.
Yemen produced an average of 50,000 bpd of crude in 2018 compared with around 127,000 bpd in 2014. Last year it exported some quantities of oil.
Safer’s official said the company will use tankers to ship the crude from Iyad field (Block 4) to the Arabian Sea pipeline in Shabwa to avoid the Ras Issa terminal.

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