IMF cuts China’s 2019 growth forecast as trade tension escalates

The US government listed $300 billion more of Chinese goods for possible tariff hikes after earlier imposing punitive duties on $200 billion of imports from China. (AFP)
Updated 05 June 2019
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IMF cuts China’s 2019 growth forecast as trade tension escalates

  • The downgrade came just two months after the IMF raised its China growth forecast to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent

BEIJING: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday cut its 2019 economic growth forecast for China to 6.2 percent on heightened uncertainty around trade frictions, saying that more monetary policy easing would be warranted if the Sino-US trade war escalates.

The downgrade came just two months after the IMF raised its China growth forecast to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent, partly on then-brightening prospects for a trade deal with the United States.

A sudden escalation in the Sino-US trade tensions last month underlined the risks for the world’s second-biggest economy from higher US tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods.

Washington has levied higher tariffs on a total of $250 billion of Chinese imports since mid-2018, accusing China of forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft. China, which denies the accusations, has retaliated with tariffs on about $110 billion of US goods.

“Growth is expected to moderate to 6.2 percent and 6.0 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively,” said the IMF’s Deputy Managing Director David Lipton in a statement. “The near-term outlook remains particularly uncertain given the potential for further escalation of trade tensions.”

US President Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs of up to 25 percent on an additional list of Chinese imports worth about $300 billion.

The trade war has already upended global supply chains and hurt world growth. Economists say the tariffs will curb growth in the United States and China, and financial markets fret a protracted dispute could tip the world economy into a recession.

China’s central bank has cut the amount of cash that commercial lenders need to set aside as reserves six times since the start of 2018 to spur lending and prop-up its slowing economy. Beijing is also rolling out tax cuts to support businesses, especially manufacturers hurt by the intensifying trade war.

“The policy stimulus announced so far is sufficient to stabilize growth in 2019/20 despite the recent US tariff hike,” Lipton said, following recent meetings with officials in China.

“No additional policy easing is needed, provided there are no further increases in tariffs or a significant slowdown in growth.”


GCC logistics sector set to expand as Saudi Cabinet approves regional transport law

Updated 11 sec ago
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GCC logistics sector set to expand as Saudi Cabinet approves regional transport law

RIYADH: The logistics sector across the Gulf Cooperation Council region is set to prosper following the Saudi Cabinet’s approval of a land transport law within the region.

Chaired by King Salman, a ministerial session was held in Jeddah, during which the Cabinet reached consensus on several key proposals. Among these was the endorsement of the unified law.

The system is crafted to enhance the organizational environment, simplify procedures, and foster unity. Moreover, it aims to boost road safety, elevate service quality, protect investments, and stimulate growth in the logistics sector throughout the GCC region.


Global airline body calls for release of $720 million in held revenues by Pakistan, Bangladesh

Updated 40 min 12 sec ago
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Global airline body calls for release of $720 million in held revenues by Pakistan, Bangladesh

  • IATA asks Pakistan in a statement to simplify the ‘onerous’ repatriation process causing ‘unnecessary delays’
  • The international organization says airlines are unable to repatriate $399 million from the Pakistani market alone

KARACHI: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Wednesday asked Pakistan and Bangladesh to release airline revenues amounting to $720 million, saying the two countries were holding it in contravention of international agreements.

IATA, an international organization representing the global airline industry, asked Pakistan to simplify the “onerous” repatriation process involving audit and tax exemption certificates in a statement, pointing out such procedures caused “unnecessary delays.”

Bangladesh, it said, had a more standardized system, though aviation needed to be a higher central bank priority to facilitate access to foreign exchange.

“The situation has become severe with airlines unable to repatriate over $720 million ($399 million in Pakistan and $323 million in Bangladesh) of revenues earned in these markets,” the statement informed.

IATA’s regional vice president for Asia-Pacific Philip Goh emphasized that the timely repatriation of revenues to different countries was critical for payment of dollar denominated expenses such as lease agreements, spare parts, overflight fees and fuel.

“Delaying repatriation contravenes international obligations written into bilateral agreements and increases exchange rate risks for airlines,” he said. “Pakistan and Bangladesh must release the more than $720 million that they are blocking with immediate effect so that airlines can continue to efficiently provide the air connectivity on which both these economies rely.”

Goh maintained that his organization recognized the two governments were facing difficult challenges, making it necessary for them to determine how to utilize foreign currencies strategically.

“Airlines operate on razor-thin margins,” he continued. “They need to prioritize the markets they serve based on the confidence they have in being able to pay their expenses with revenues that are remitted in a timely and efficient fashion.”

He pointed out reduced air connectivity limited the potential for economic growth, foreign investment and exports, adding such large sums of money involved in the Pakistani and Bangladeshi markets necessitated urgent solutions.


Saudi Arabia to develop 320k new hotel rooms by 2030: Knight Frank 

Updated 41 min 47 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia to develop 320k new hotel rooms by 2030: Knight Frank 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is gearing up to expand its hospitality sector by developing 320,000 new hotel rooms by 2030, according to an analysis by global property giant Knight Frank.

The consultancy’s study disclosed that as much as 67 percent of the planned hotel room supply in the Kingdom would fall in the “upscale” or “luxury” categories, referring to 4-star and 5-star accommodations, respectively. 

This move aims to cater to the projected surge in tourism, with 150 million domestic and international tourists expected by 2030.

“With a target of welcoming 150 million visitors by 2030—a 50 percent increase from its previous goal—the government is actively exploring various strategies to attract to international travelers,” Partner and Head of Hospitality at Tourism and Leisure Advisory in Middle East and Africa Turab Saleem said.

Saleem noted that this includes the development of cultural and entertainment offerings nationwide, which complement existing attractions like the Jeddah F1 Grand Prix and numerous entertainment seasons.

“Noteworthy additions include theme parks such as Boulevard World in Riyadh, alongside the licensing of 24 additional theme parks by the Saudi General Entertainment Authority over the past year,” he added.


Oil Updates – prices climb amid US stocks decline, Middle East conflict

Updated 24 April 2024
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Oil Updates – prices climb amid US stocks decline, Middle East conflict

TOKYO: Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday after industry data showed a surprise drop in US crude stocks last week, a positive sign for demand, though markets were also keeping a close eye on hostilities in the Middle East, according to Reuters

Brent crude futures rose 26 cents, or 0.29 percent, to $88.68 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 26 cents, or 0.31 percent, to $83.62 a barrel at 9:34 a.m. Saudi time.

US crude inventories fell 3.237 million barrels in the week ended April 19, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. In contrast, six analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 800,000 barrels.

Traders will be watching for the official US data on oil and product stockpiles due at 5:30 p.m. Saudi time for confirmation of the big drawdown.

US business activity cooled in April to a four-month low, with S&P Global saying on Tuesday that its flash Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 50.9 this month from 52.1 in March.

“This could help convince policy makers that rate cuts are required to support the economy,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

US interest rate cuts could bolster economic growth and, in turn, demand for oil from the world’s top consumer of the fuel.

Analysts were still bullish that any latest developments in conflicts in the Middle East will still support markets, though the impact on oil supplies remains limited for now.

“Overall, crude oil prices are well supported around current levels by on-going Middle East risk premium. On the topside, risk of possible renewed OPEC production increase from Jun will help limit any significant upside,” said head of markets strategy for United Overseas Bank in Singapore Heng Koon How.

“We maintain our forecast for Brent to consolidate at USD 90/bbl by end of this year,” Heng added.

Israeli strikes intensified across Gaza on Tuesday, in some of the heaviest shelling in weeks.

“Recent reports suggest that both Iran and Israel consider the current operations concluded against one another, with no follow-up action required for now,” ING analysts said in a note.

“The US and Europe are preparing for new sanctions against Iran – although these may not have a material impact on oil supply in the immediate term,” they added.
 


Pakistan Stock Exchange hits record high, breaks 72,000 points in intraday trade

Updated 24 April 2024
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Pakistan Stock Exchange hits record high, breaks 72,000 points in intraday trade

  • Analysts say investors expect a significant decline in April inflation data that may lead to a cut in interest rates
  • The Pakistani bourse has recently been trading at record highs due to hopes of positive loan talks with the IMF

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s benchmark share index breached the key level of 72,000 to trade at a record high of 72,414 points during intraday trade earlier on Wednesday, according to data from the Pakistan Stock Exchange website.

The Pakistani bourse has recently been trading at record highs amid positive sentiment prevailing among investors due to hopes of the country’s successful talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new loan program.

The country’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, recently visited Washington to hold talks with IMF officials for a long-term bailout facility as Pakistan’s current $3 billion program is due to expire this month.

The finance minister expressed hopes the outline of the new program would soon become visible, adding that the loan would help Pakistan continue with structural economic reforms.

“After a record current account surplus, investors are now expecting a big fall in April inflation data that may result in a cut in interest rates in the coming months,” Sohail Mohammed, CEO of Karachi-based brokerage company Topline Securities, told Reuters.

Pakistan’s benchmark KSE100 index has surged 75.5 percent over the past year and is up 11.5 percent year-to-date.

The equity market is expected to surge further as an IMF delegation arrives in Pakistan next month to determine the contours of the new loan facility.

“We are still hoping that we can get into a staff-level agreement [with the IMF] by the time June is done or early July so that we can move on,” the finance minister said on Tuesday while addressing a news conference in Islamabad.

With input from Reuters