Iran sanctions seen keeping oil above $75

The US is re-imposing sanctions against Iranian crude exports on Nov. 5 as part of Donald Trump’s efforts to force Tehran to accede to a more restrictive deal on curbing its nuclear program. (AP Photo)
Updated 31 October 2018
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Iran sanctions seen keeping oil above $75

  • A survey of 46 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude to average $76.88 a barrel in 2019
  • Imports of Iranian crude oil by major buyers in Asia hit a 32-month low in September

LONDON: Oil is likely to stay above $75 a barrel, fueled by supply disruptions exacerbated by US sanctions on Iran, but further gains could be limited as economists and analysts see demand growth slowing next year due to trade wars and economic weakness.

A survey of 46 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude to average $76.88 a barrel in 2019, up from the $73.75 forecast in September. The price is expected to average $74.48 in 2018, versus the $73.57 average so far this year.

Analysts said demand is expected to decelerate in 2019, if concern over a widespread economic slowdown proves to be justified.

Overall, global oil demand is projected to grow by between 1.1 and 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, a range that generally falls short of the 1.4 million bpd forecast for next year by the Paris-based International Energy Agency in October.

Brent neared $87 a barrel earlier in the year following US efforts to isolate Iran through renewed sanctions, but prices have since edged off those highs and Brent is now around $76.

 

Analysts worry that there is a lack of spare capacity to deal with potential outages elsewhere once the sanctions take effect on Nov. 4.

“On the supply side, concerns (about) falling supplies from a number of OPEC producers — primarily Iran, owing to the renewed US sanctions — and also Venezuela, Angola, Libya and Nigeria, will maintain upward pressure on prices,” said Cailin Birch, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The US sanctions against Iran’s crude exports are expected to tighten supply, especially to Asia, which takes most of the country’s shipments.

Apart from Saudi Arabia and Russia, few producers can fill any gap left by Iran, according to Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW.

“I expect (Saudi Arabia and Russia) to raise output if necessary — as a shortage on the supply side and an even higher oil price could be a major risk to the global economy in 2019,” Schallenberger added.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose, recovering some ground after two days of losses, as markets braced for the imposition of US sanctions on Iran next week and stock markets clawed back some of their recent losses.

Benchmark Brent crude oil was up 35 cents at $76.26 a barrel. US light crude was 25 cents higher at $66.43.

Oil market sentiment also received some support from equity markets, which pulled back from 20-month lows after pledges by China to support its markets.

“The bullish argument for crude still centers on Iran sanctions which are due to begin in November, and continued output declines from Venezuela,” said William O’Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities.

Imports of Iranian crude oil by major buyers in Asia hit a 32-month low in September, as China, South Korea and Japan sharply cut their purchases ahead of upcoming US sanctions on Tehran, government and ship-tracking data showed.

China, India, Japan and South Korea last month imported 1.13 million barrels per day (bpd) from Iran, according to the data, down 40.9 percent from a year earlier.

This marks the lowest imports since January 2016, right before the previous sanctions targeting Tehran’s nuclear program were lifted.

The United States is re-imposing those sanctions against Iranian crude oil exports on Nov. 5 as part of President Donald Trump’s efforts to force Tehran to accede to a more restrictive deal on curbing its nuclear and missile programs.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed in June to boost supply to help make up for the expected disruption to Iranian exports.

Iraq’s new oil minister Thamer Ghadhban said the current price of crude was “fair” and that the country, OPEC’s second-largest producer, would act responsibly in providing ample supplies to the market.

Ghadhban also said the oil ministry aimed to increase output capacity and support foreign energy companies by helping them overcome any bureaucratic hurdles.

OPEC agreed in June to pump more oil after pressure from US President Donald Trump to curb rising prices and to make up for an expected shortfall in Iranian exports. Oil hit a four-year high of $86.74
a barrel on Oct. 3 but has since eased to $76 as concern of tight supplies faded.

Iraq, which relies on vast oil wealth as its most important source of income, is seeking to increase crude production capacity to 7 million barrels per day (bdp) by 2022 from 5 million bdp now. Iraq currently pumps around 4.6 million bpd, second only to Saudi Arabia in OPEC.

The country is trying to recover from years of violence including a war with Daesh militants that wrecked infrastructure and is seeking to reduce corruption and manage rivalries with Kurdish authorities that run oil-rich areas in the north.

“We will do our best to stabilize the market,” Ghadhban told reporters after officially taking over the oil portfolio from Jabar Al-Luaibi.

“The oil price at the moment is at a fair price,” he said in response to a question about an upcoming OPEC meeting in December.

“It’s not too high, it’s not 100 dollars per barrel and it’s not 30 dollars.”

“We will look after our country as a first priority but will not put aside the interests of the consumers.”

The International Energy Agency estimates the maximum that Iraq can sustainably pump is 4.8 million bpd, leaving little room to increase output significantly in the short term. The majority of its crude exports go to Asia.

FASTFACTS

Oil hit a four-year high of $86.74 a barrel on Oct. 3 but has since eased to $76


Saudi Arabia innovating procurement, supply chains to secure prosperous future, forum hears

Updated 16 May 2024
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Saudi Arabia innovating procurement, supply chains to secure prosperous future, forum hears

  • Experts highlight Saudi Arabia’s innovative steps to transform various sectors of the economy

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is spearheading transformative initiatives in order to enhance innovation in procurement and supply chains across various sectors, an industry forum was told.

At the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply’s MENA Conference in Riyadh, a series of presentations and panel discussions underscored the vital importance of ensuring the security of supply chains, boosting local content, and streamlining government procurement spending in order to pave the way for a prosperous future. 

From water desalination to real estate development, the Kingdom is leveraging advanced technologies to optimize operations and drive economic growth, delegates heard.

Transforming the real estate sector

The National Housing Co. has embarked on a journey to optimize the supply chain in the Saudi real estate sector, according to the firm’s Supply Chain and Business Support General Manager Maan Al-Othimeen.

He took to the stage to outline the organization’s strategic initiatives aimed at fostering local production efficiency and supporting small and medium enterprises in order to create the infrastructure needed to support the government’s development goals in the construction sector. 

The implications of these efforts are not limited to the construction supply chain alone, rather, they translate into a foundation on which the nation will be able to build its hospitality and giga-project goals, he said.

Beyond that, by 2030, NHC aims to deliver 600,000 housing units, further catalyzing the sector’s growth and stimulating the economy.

NHC is empowering local businesses and promoting national workforce participation by introducing new initiatives, Al-Othimeen said, adding: “In promoting local production efficiency by supporting local factories we have launched Mawad, an online platform linking contractors, real estate developers, local factories and suppliers to streamline purchases, expand choices and stabilize market prices.

“In terms of financing, we offer financial solutions in partnership with government entities, banks and financial firms to encourage local businesses, including developers, contractors and factories and improve project completion in the real estate development sector. 

“We are also building technologies through awareness campaigns while supporting local service providers.”

As a testament to its success, through the Mawad platform, the company has managed to reach over $500 million in transaction values, signed 113 memorandums of understanding with local factories, and achieved average savings of 21 percent, the general manager added. 

Moreover, NHC’s collaboration with Tawteen — Saudi Arabia’s human capital localization agency — and its focus on nurturing the next generation of workforce through initiatives like Wa’ed, demonstrates the organization’s commitment to sustainable development and talent empowerment.

Al- Othimeen added: “NHC employees undergo training and factory tours in collaboration with local manufacturing products to gain insight into product lines.”

As the Kingdom continues to embark on a journey of transformation of its hospitality, tourism and real estate sectors, it will require a strong basis for its supply chains and workforce to see it through, he noted. 

“KSA’s construction sector is projected to grow at 5.8 percent between 2023 and 2030, it is projected that the construction market value will grow from SR189 billion ($50.39 billion) in 2023, to SR281 billion by 2030. By 2030, 28 percent of this figure will be represented by hospitality, while 33 percent will be residential, 24 percent will be energy and utilities, 11 percent will be infrastructure, and 4 percent will be industrial,” he said.

In order to meet the growing demand for building materials, NHC plans to establish an industrial park specialized in the manufacturing of key building materials, the general manager added.

The industrial park will be an integrated development with three asset classes: industrial, logistic and urban class. 

Government procurement

Under the framework of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the government has implemented initiatives to enhance its procurement strategy. 

Ahmed Al-Harbi, executive director of government procurement efficiency, highlighted the significant strides made in digitalization and local content development at the forum.

This work has yielded tangible results, including cost savings and improved efficiency, Al-Harbi explained, adding: “Through all these transformations, information and data that have happened over the past years, it is a journey in the Kingdom that is still ongoing. 

“It began in 2018 through the digitization of the procurement industry which was largely made possible through Etimad, which is a unified end-to-end digital platform introduced by the government to assure efficiency and transparency, serving both the government and private sector. 

“It allows for sourcing through the Etimad e-market, government travel platform, Etimad e-auction, online tenders as well as digital contracting and an online payment platform.”

Moreover, the government’s emphasis on standardizing purchasing templates, introducing new methods, and enhancing payment processes has streamlined operations and fostered transparency in government procurement, he noted.

With transformative initiatives across key sectors, the Kingdom is poised to lead the way in procurement and supply chain innovation, driving economic diversification and sustainable development, he further explained.

A key achievement throughout the journey, according to the executive director, is an improvement of cost efficiency, with more than SR20 billion in savings witnessed by adapting category management methodology. 

Local content has also been supported through 35 industry localization and knowledge transfer agreements signed by the authority and over 1,000 items added to the mandatory list of national products, he said.

There has also been an improvement in procurement efficiency and effectiveness, with 15 percent reduction in life cycle, from tender to award, and 27 percent reduction in tenders’ cancellation rate, he added.

Al- Harbi said: “In the last three years, when we first started, there was a large amount of expenditures, we spent — compared to previous years — over SR7 billion annually in procurement spending on over 3,000 projects, and we were of course supporting over 300 government initiatives.”

 He went on: “These expenses have covered over 38,000 products and services that were provided. The number of POs (procurement orders) annually was 15,000 with over 600 procuring government entities, over 180 registered suppliers and four e-platforms.” 

Revolutionizing water desalination

The Saudi Water Authority has undertaken a comprehensive digital transformation of its supply chain operations. 

Abdulrahman Al-Yousef, general manager of shared services and supply chain at SWA, highlighted the organization’s commitment to utilizing cutting-edge technology.

“Since we operate in a vital sector such as water desalination, our focus has been on enhancing efficiency and reliability through digitalization,” stated Al-Yousef. 

“Through initiatives such as smart warehouses and automation, we have achieved remarkable results, including a 98 percent reduction in time and a 400 percent increase in storage efficiency,” he added.

SWA’s adoption of advanced analytics, artificial intelligence and Internet of Things integration has revolutionized procurement processes, reducing its lifecycle by 37 percent. 

This transformation underscores the Kingdom’s dedication to ensuring accuracy and time efficiency in critical sectors.

Moreover, SWA’s continuous investment in renewable energy sources and eco-friendly technologies has positioned it as a global leader in sustainable water management. 

With 33 production systems utilizing the latest eco-friendly technology, SWA is driving environmental stewardship while meeting the Kingdom’s growing water demands with an efficient, automated supply chain.


Saudi Arabia moves to localize mining sector professions

Updated 16 May 2024
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Saudi Arabia moves to localize mining sector professions

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is on track to boost the localization of professions related to the mining sector thanks to a new agreement signed by the Human Resources Development Fund. 

Inked with the Saudi Arabian Mining Co., also known as Ma’aden, the memorandum of understanding aims to enhance cooperation and partnerships between the two parties to develop human capital in the sector, according to a statement. 

This move falls in line with the common goals of the two sides and aligns well with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 in developing human capabilities and enabling them to get promising job opportunities.

It also reflects the accelerating growth of the mining sector in Saudi Arabia and globally. Under the terms of the newly signed MoU, the two sides will work to support the training and empowerment of suppliers in Ma’aden’s local content program, Tharwa, in accordance with the controls approved by the fund.

The mining firm launched Tharwa in 2022. It encompasses the company’s vision to create a wealth of resources in the Kingdom. 

The deal will also see both sides ensure that trainees receive appropriate support solutions and motivation plans.

Additionally, the agreement entails studying the possibilities for achieving sustainability in the mining and mineral wealth sector, which is vital to strengthening the national economy.

The two parties agreed to form a joint working group that includes specialists to activate areas of cooperation as well as work to prepare unified periodic reports that outline the progress in the agreed upon areas.

Ma’aden is an important figure in the field as it is the largest multi-commodity mining and metals company in the Middle East. Its manufacturing capabilities include producing phosphate fertilizers, aluminum metal, and gold.

In January, the firm secured international recognition with a certificate for producing 614,000 tonnes of ultra-low carbon ammonia, the largest quantity acknowledged globally.   

The endorsement from Det Norske Veritas at the time signified a substantial stride in Ma’aden’s plans to expand and transform its operations, aspiring to become an environmental, social, and governance role model in the Kingdom.   

This accreditation, which was received at the time, also highlighted the mining firm’s commitment to operational excellence and expanding its product range.


Closing Bell: TASI closes in green to reach 12,198 points 

Updated 16 May 2024
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Closing Bell: TASI closes in green to reach 12,198 points 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 95.24 points, or 0.79 percent, to close at 12,198.44. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR7.15 billion ($1.9 billion) as 81 stocks advanced, while 144 retreated.    

Similarly, the MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 17.75 points, or 1.17 percent, to close at 1,530.05. 

However, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu dipped by 182.13 points, or 0.68 percent, to close at 26,484.03. This comes as 21 stocks advanced, while as many as 33 retreated.  

The best-performing stock of the day was Allied Cooperative Insurance Group, with the company’s share price surging by 6.5 percent to SR21.30. 

Other top performers included ACWA Power Co. and MBC Group Co., whose share prices soared by 6.19 percent and 4.69 percent, to stand at SR459.6 and SR53.6, respectively. 

The worst performer was BinDawood Holding Co. whose share price dropped by 9.98 percent to SR8.03. 

Other subdued performers were Al-Babtain Power and Telecommunication Co. as well as Al-Baha Investment and Development Co., whose share prices dropped by 7.67 percent and 7.14 percent to stand at SR42.75 and SR0.13, respectively. 

On the announcements front, MBC Group Co. announced its interim financial results for the period ending March 31, with revenues amounting to SR1.23 million and net profits reaching SR121,28. 

The group does not have comparative figures for the current reporting period, as it was incorporated on April 20, 2023, which is subsequent to the comparative reporting period. 

BinDawood Holding Co. also announced its financial results for the same period with revenues amounting to SR1.47 billion, up from SR1.38 billion in the first three months of 2023. 

In a statement on Tadawul, the company said: “This growth was driven by exceptional performances from both retail brands (BinDawood and Danube) where sales for BinDawood stores increased by 8.5 percent compared to Q1 2023, while Danube stores increased by 7.1 percent compared to Q1 2023.”  

It added that the improvement in performance was fueled by enhanced preparations for the pre-Ramadan season and the ongoing success of the loyalty program. 

Its net profits also rose in this period reaching SR60.54 million, marking a 15.9 percent year-on-year increase, due to the rise in sales and gross margin. 

In another development, Qassim Cement Co.’s revenues in this period surged by 18.8 percent to SR196.41 million compared to SR174.07 million in the first quarter of 2023. This increase was attributed to the rise in sales volume as well as the increase in the average selling price. 

The company’s net profit surged to SR74.22 million compared to SR54.93 million in the corresponding period last year. The reason for the increase was attributed to the increase in sales value and volume, despite the increase in the general and administrative expenses.  

Arabian Centers Co.’s revenues saw a slight increase of 1.56 percent to SR585.8 million in the first quarter of this year, compared to SR576.8 million in the corresponding period in 2023. 

The rise was mainly attributed to a 21.9 percent increase in media sales and a 48.0 percent increase in other revenue. 

Its net profit decreased by 52.1 percent from SR388 million in the first quarter of 2023 to reach SR185.6 million in the corresponding period this year. 


GCC housing ministers discuss joint action in Qatari capital

Updated 16 May 2024
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GCC housing ministers discuss joint action in Qatari capital

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council countries are set to have better coordination in their housing projects as top ministers met in Doha to discuss the Joint Housing Action Plan for 2024. 

Saudi Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing Majid Al-Hogail headed the Kingdom’s contingent at the 22nd meeting of the GCC Housing Ministers Committee in the Qatari capital, where leaders deliberated over key housing issues and made multiple decisions.  

These included the approval of the Real Estate Incentive Guide, which aims to link landowners with developers and financial entities.  

They also approved the guide for evaluating the flexibility of cities in the field of housing in GCC countries, as well as the economic framework for partnership with private institutions to encourage investment in the real estate sector. 

The meeting also announced the launch of the sixth edition of the GCC Housing Work Award under the theme “Smart Digital Applications and Technologies in Housing Projects and Programs.”  

The monetary value of the award was increased to SR375,000 ($99,987) instead of SR100,000, emphasizing the importance of ministries and relevant institutions in the Gulf countries promoting the new award cycle to expand participation. 

Ministers emphasized the importance of continued participation in regional and international activities and meetings related to accommodation to showcase the region’s efforts. 

The UAE was nominated for membership in the Executive Bureau of the Asian-Pacific Assembly and the upcoming presidency of the UN Human Settlements Programme General Assembly. Additionally, the committee highlighted the necessity of activating the mechanism for exchanging experts among GCC countries. 

Furthermore, discussions were held regarding the General Secretariat’s proposal to sign agreements with various specialized organizations serving the residency sector, including the International Federation for Housing and Planning and the International Housing Association. 

Following the meeting, the dignitaries toured the accompanying exhibition, where the ministries in the Gulf countries showcased their prominent efforts and projects through their participating pavilions. 

At the end of the tour, Qatar’s Minister of Social Development and Family Mariam Al-Misnad honored the GCC ministers.


Qassim’s private sector environment in focus during ministerial visit to region’s chamber

Updated 16 May 2024
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Qassim’s private sector environment in focus during ministerial visit to region’s chamber

RIYADH: Private sector involvement in Saudi Arabia’s Qassim region took center stage during a visit by a top investment official to the province’s chamber. 

Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih convened with investors and company leaders at the headquarters of the Qassim Chamber on May 15, where they discussed ways to enhance the regional investment environment and overcome obstacles, and also examined the role of the private sector in achieving the economic goals of Vision 2030. 

Al-Falih emphasized that the Qassim region is filled with innovative investment experiences and initiatives, such as fish farming and feed manufacturing, encouraging these contributions to serve as a blueprint for sustainable investment nationwide. 

In a post on his X account, Al-Falih shared his appreciation for the meeting with Qassim Gov. Prince Faisal bin Mishaal. He mentioned the regional governor’s directives and priorities for developing economic sectors by leveraging the region’s competitive advantages. 

The minister added that the governor shared his aspirations to address challenges encountered by investors. Also, he said both discussed the ministry’s role in advancing investment opportunities, aiding the private sector, and resolving its hurdles. 

Speaking during the chamber meeting, the minister clarified that major investment projects are dealt with through the fast-track program, which provides all necessary procedures to facilitate the project’s initiation and implementation. The program guarantees new investors to have their investment licenses processed within five days. 

Meanwhile, the meeting addressed the needs and requirements for fostering an optimal investment environment, aiming to surmount barriers to economic activities. Additionally, discussions centered on offering incentives essential for attracting increased capital to the region. 

The gathering also highlighted the crucial role of the private and entrepreneurial sectors in driving and maintaining commercial and economic activities in the region. It explored their impact on Vision 2030 goals, stressing the need for government-private sector partnerships to establish more investment entities and support nationwide incubators. 

On the other hand, Abdulaziz Al-Humaid, chairman of the chamber, emphasized that Al-Falih’s involvement underscores his dedication to monitoring and meeting the requirements of the private sector. 

He further noted that the minister’s ongoing endeavors to cultivate investment opportunities and foster favorable economic conditions align with the goals of Vision 2030, particularly in establishing a robust and sustainable investment environment. 

The gathering was attended by the chairmen of the Onaiza and Al-Ras chambers, Khalid Al-Saikhan and Fayez Al-Shuwaily, respectively, as well as members of the Qassim Chamber’s board along with senior officials from the Ministry of Investment.