LONDON: OPEC cut its forecast of global demand growth for oil next year for a third straight month on Thursday, citing headwinds facing the broader economy, and key consuming countries in particular, from trade disputes and volatile emerging markets.
In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil demand would increase by 1.36 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, marking a decline of 50,000 bpd from its previous estimate.
The group also cut the estimate for demand in 2019 for its own crude by another 300,000 bpd from last month to 31.8 million bpd, which in turn marks a decline of 900,000 bpd from the projection for 2018.
OPEC said its own production rose by 132,000 bpd in September to 32.76 million bpd, the highest according to the monthly report since August 2017.
Saudi Arabia and Libya increased output last month by 108,000 bpd and 103,000 bpd respectively, more than offsetting the 150,000-bpd decline from Iran to 3.447 million bpd, as reported by secondary sources.
OPEC said Iran told the group its oil output had fallen by just 51,000 bpd to 3.775 million bpd.
The group, led by Saudi Arabia, has pledged to increase output to compensate for the loss of any Iranian supply to US sanctions that come into force next month.
OPEC cut its forecast for growth in non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 by 30,000 bpd to 2.12 million bpd.
OPEC cuts forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019
OPEC cuts forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019
- OPEC cut its forecast for growth in non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 by 30,000 bpd to 2.12 million bpd
Oil surges; Brent back at $100 as Iran steps up attacks on Gulf shipping
BEIJING/SINGAPORE: Oil prices jumped on Thursday as Iran stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, raising fears of a prolonged conflict and oil-flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose $8.54, or 9.28 percent, to $100.52 a barrel at 06:54 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $7.22, or 8.28 percent, to $94.47.
Brent hit $119.50 a barrel on Monday, its highest since mid-2022, then dropped after US President Donald Trump said the Iran war could be over soon.
On Wednesday, a spokesperson for Iran’s military command said: “Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised,” in remarks directed at the US.
There are no signs of a de-escalation in the Gulf and as a result, there is no end in sight to the disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, ING analysts said on Thursday.
“The only way to see oil prices trade lower on a sustained basis is by getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING said. “Failing to do so means that the market highs are still ahead of us.”
Two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were hit by unidentified attackers in Iraq’s territorial waters, causing them to catch fire, the director general of the General Co. for Ports, Farhan al-Fartousi, told Reuters on Wednesday.
An initial investigation from Iraqi security officials showed explosive-laden boats from Iran had hit the two tankers.
The International Energy Agency has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil to help rein in prices that have spiked after the US-Israeli war on Iran broke out. The US is contributing the bulk of that release — 172 million barrels — from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
“The IEA’s release of oil reserves may be only a temporary solution, as disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and a major production halt in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a long-term supply crunch,” said Tina Teng, a market strategist at Moomoo ANZ.
The ING analysts said there are concerns about how quickly the oil can make it to the market and whether it will be sufficient to tide consumers over until oil begins flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.
