LONDON: Oil prices are likely to climb continuously into next year, as concerns over drops in supply from the likes of Iran and Venezuela outweigh any worry that global trade disputes could undermine demand, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
A survey of 50 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude to average $73.48 a barrel in 2018, up from the $72.71 forecast in August and the $72.68 average so far this year. Brent was forecast to average $73.75 in 2019.
This is the highest projection for the benchmark for both 2018 and 2019 in the polls this year.
“Concerns over global trade disputes have not yet really affected economic growth, but the sanctions on Iran already have had an impact on Iranian exports and output,” said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW.
“If an export destination like South Korea is not willing to buy Iranian oil anymore, there is a high probability that output from Iran could drop some 500,000-1 million bpd. This is really bad news for the supply side — and especially also for the consumers — as prices could go up even further.”
Iranian exports of crude and condensates have declined by 0.8 million barrels a day (mbd) from April to September, according to the Institute of International Finance, ahead of the Nov. 4 US sanctions on the third largest producer in OPEC.
Brent prices have risen more than 20 percent since the beginning of April.
Analysts expect a reduction of anywhere between 500,000 and 1.5 million bpd in Iranian supply due to the sanctions, with most expecting Saudi Arabia to take the lead in filling any supply gaps.
“The best is yet to come with a fourth-quarter of $80-plus per barrel driven by still strong oil demand growth, expectation of a significant drop in Iranian exports to 1 mbd by year-end and an only limited willingness by OPEC to ramp-up output to exhaust spare capacity,” said Jan Edelmann, commodities analyst at HSH Nordbank.
However, an escalating trade dispute between the US and China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities, could affect demand growth, especially next year, analysts said.
“Uncertainty about possible effects of a trade war between the US and China could dampen some of the upside risks triggered by the supply issues,” said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro.
Meanwhile, US crude futures were forecast to average $67.29 a barrel in 2018, compared with the $67.13 consensus last month and an average of $66.76 until now.
A majority of participants saw growth in US shale oil output slowing over the remainder of 2018 and into next year due to infrastructure problems.
Oil to rise as Iran sanctions outweigh demand risks from trade wars
Oil to rise as Iran sanctions outweigh demand risks from trade wars
- Highest forecast for 2018, 2019 Brent prices this year
- Shale growth could be limited by infrastructure problems
The hidden side of clean power: why grid integration matters
- Exploring the predator’s role in the region’s heritage and ecosystem
RIYADH: As Saudi Arabia expands solar, wind, and battery projects, a critical piece of the sustainability puzzle often goes unseen: grid integration.
Before renewable plants can deliver power, engineers must ensure the grid remains stable, safe, and efficient under new loads. Integrating renewables into existing systems has become one of the toughest — and most crucial — steps toward building a truly sustainable energy network.
Engineers widely consider the electricity grid the largest and most complex machine ever built. As more renewable capacity comes online, managing it is becoming as much a data challenge as an energy one.
“A big share of Saudi Arabia’s electricity is generated from renewables and more projects are connected to the grid each year. This shift changes how the electricity grid is managed on a day-to-day basis,” Saeed Al-Zahrani, general manager of data enterprise storage leader NetApp in Saudi Arabia, told Arab News.
“To add context, traditional generation can usually be adjusted in a controlled way. Wind and solar, however, move with conditions such as cloud cover, dust, temperature and wind speed, meaning supply can rise and fall quickly,” he said.
In this environment, grid integration is less about whether enough electricity can be produced and more about whether operators can see and respond to changes across the network fast enough to maintain stability.
Frequency, voltage, congestion, and reserve margins all become more dynamic. Real-time measurements, accurate forecasting, asset status updates, and weather intelligence must come together into a reliable, unified system view.
“From NetApp’s perspective, this is where the data foundation matters most, because the grid can only act confidently when the information behind the decisions is timely, governed, and reliable,” Al-Zahrani said.
Under Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia aims to generate 50 percent of its energy from renewables — an ambitious target that introduces new technical and operational challenges. Weather variability, cyber threats, and system coordination can all affect grid stability.
“Every device that operates under this control regime that’s connected to the grid is digital nowadays. You have smart inverters, you have sensors, you have energy management systems, and all those devices and systems are potential entry points for attackers,” Charalambos Konstantinou, a professor at KAUST, told Arab News.
His lab focuses on maintaining reliable and secure power infrastructure, developing faster and smarter control algorithms capable of responding to sudden changes in the power system.
“This is what we’re working to make sure that those algorithms remain robust. They remain resilient. They remain secure, even if something, maybe an extreme weather event, or a cyber attack, is aiming to disrupt them,” he said.
Rapid digitalization, however, can create vulnerabilities if security measures do not keep pace. In 2012, Aramco experienced the Shamoon attack, a computer virus that affected around 30,000 workstations.
“When you scale fast, security practices typically lack behind deployment, and this is essentially what we focus a lot in my group: making sure that internet-connected or digital devices cannot be used as an entry point to destabilizing the grid,” Konstantinou said.
One particularly concerning threat involves load-altering attacks, which can disrupt power systems without requiring deep penetration of the grid itself.
“If an attacker is able to control a large amount of what we call internet connected high voltage devices — think HVAC systems, air conditioning systems, water heaters, electric vehicle chargers — and is able to switch them on and off at the same time, simultaneously, then he or she can create a certain imbalance between generation and demand, and then the grid (becomes) very difficult to handle,” he said.
Such disruptions could potentially trigger widespread blackouts.
Beyond cybersecurity risks, the physical environment also presents challenges. Saudi Arabia’s relatively consistent weather can be an advantage for renewable energy production, but factors such as dust accumulation on solar panels and thermal stress on inverters can still affect performance.
Testing technologies under local conditions — including extreme heat, network behavior, and the mix of generation assets — is essential before large-scale deployment. Equally important are intelligent coordination frameworks that allow flexible energy assets to work together while optimizing energy use across industries.
Renewable-heavy grids across Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries increasingly depend on real-time data from SCADA systems, substation automation, and weather monitoring to balance supply and demand. While these continuous data flows improve efficiency, they also introduce new risks, including potential system disruption and data manipulation.
Vasily Dyagilev, regional director for the Middle East, Russia and CIS at Check Point Software Technologies Ltd., highlighted the scale of these vulnerabilities.
“In Saudi Arabia, 58 percent of organizations have experienced information disclosure vulnerabilities, while remote code execution and authentication bypass remain significant threats. The complexity of managing legacy operational technology networks alongside modern cloud-based systems and third-party integrations makes it difficult for utilities to maintain full visibility over their risk landscape.
“The region has also seen high-profile incidents where attacks on SCADA systems led to operational disruptions, highlighting the fragility of critical infrastructure. Effective exposure management, including continuous vulnerability discovery and prioritized remediation based on operational risk, is now recognized as essential for maintaining grid stability and protecting the integrity of real-time data streams.”
Alongside cyber and operational risks, uncertainty in weather patterns remains a key variable in renewable power generation.
Omar Knio, another professor at KAUST, studies how atmospheric processes influence renewable energy systems through uncertainty quantification and climate modeling. Dust particles originating in the Arabian Peninsula, for instance, can travel thousands of kilometers and influence weather patterns across South Asia.
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“Phenomena at tiny little scales end up, through teleconnections, making very important contributions to weather patterns and to the climate as far as renewables themselves, because these phenomena affect the solar and wind potentials, they’re extremely important to predict accurately,” Knio said.
“The presence of dust in the atmosphere and cloud cover affect the output of solar panels or solar plants, and similar phenomena happen to wind, and that's why they are really challenging. It's important to be able to predict them as accurately as we can.”
Maintaining a stable renewable grid requires both short-term and long-term forecasting. Hourly predictions are essential for balancing supply and demand, while longer-term projections help planners prepare infrastructure and storage.
Artificial intelligence is increasingly helping researchers build models that forecast weather patterns, simulate thermal behavior in buildings, and analyze industrial energy use. In areas where detailed physical models are limited, AI also helps uncover patterns in human behavior and electricity consumption.
“An example is power demand, consumer behavior, or changes in patterns that have to do with the day of the week, whether it's a weekend, a holiday season, whether it's during harsh weather, or it's during Ramadan: how do these patterns change? And artificial intelligence is really bringing the capability for us to represent and forecast these very complex phenomena,” Knio said.
As renewable energy penetration approaches higher levels, the system becomes more sensitive to fluctuations and extreme events.
“There comes a point where we start having a very dramatic rise in the need for storage capabilities. And the important aspect of why our fuel is important. We can make them cleaner, but they’re wonderful in the sense that they are plentiful right now. They are cheap, but more importantly, they are quite economical to store after. After fuels come nuclear power. So it’s really that storage capability. As we approach 100 percent, the need for storage becomes extremely heightened,” Knio said.









