LONDON: Growth in Iraqi oil production will be squeezed for the next decade despite the country being the second largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and the fourth biggest in the world, according to a report by US consultancy IHS Markit.
The findings come after a week when the price of Brent crude reached $80 a barrel, with supply worries having been heightened by Hurricane Florence heading toward the US, threatening to derail US oil pipelines. Also looming large was the expected effect on supply by the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran.
IHS said that Iraq, which theoretically could produce about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), would only marginally boost output to 2028. The current 4.5 million bpd would only increase to 5 million bpd over the next decade, said IHS analyst Christopher Elsner in an interview with Arab News.
Elsner said that he may revise his forecast upward if conditions in the country improve, but on current thinking, even by 2036 Iraq’s production would only reach 6 million bpd, he said.
A former international energy infrastructure analyst at the US Department of Energy who has worked on Iraqi projects, Elsner commented: “Yes, our numbers are conservative against the official Iraqi data. There is a lot of investment in getting wells out of the ground. And there’s a lot of investment in exporting that oil. But the connections between the oil fields and the storage farms in the south and the export points have been what has really led to the bottlenecks in Iraq.”
Other impediments were the absence of electricity to run some oil fields, as well as the lack of pipelines, pumping stations and storage space — all of which have constrained capacity.
“Coordinating the purchase of various components such that you can progress without delay … has been another major issue,” said Elsner.
The state-run company responsible for oil projects in mid-stream had “a spotty execution track record,” he added. There was legal uncertainty around contracts, security risks, and water and electricity services were unreliable.
The IHS report added that Iraq’s crude oil consumption is currently 0.7 million bpd, and this was expected to grow very slowly, to 0.8 million bpd by 2030. Iraq’s crude exports are the difference between production and consumption.
The oil-rich Basra province was rocked by renewed violence earlier this month as political protests regain momentum, threatening oil facilities. Thousands of Iraqis have been taking to the streets daily over the past week, torching government buildings and political party offices.
The demonstrations have added to oil supply concerns, although these turn principally around worries about the absence of Iranian crude later this year when US sanctions kick in. India and China have begun to reduce their purchases of Iranian oil while South Korea has already dropped imports to zero on the orders of the Trump administration, according to the Financial Times.
Iraq oil production to be ‘squeezed for next decade’
Iraq oil production to be ‘squeezed for next decade’
- The state-run company responsible for oil projects in mid-stream had “a spotty execution track record
Dubai’s real estate rental value rises 17% in 2025
RIYADH: Rising demand drove Dubai’s real estate rental value to rise 17 percent year on year in 2025 to reach 126.4 billion Emirati dirhams ($34 billion), a sign of the market’s strength and the sustained pace of residential and commercial activity, new figures showed.
Data by the Dubai Land Department revealed that registered tenancy contracts recorded a 6 percent increase in volume during 2025, reaching 1.38 million agreements.
In addition to rising demand, the performance was also supported by a broad mix of housing options and clear regulatory frameworks that define and manage relationships between all stakeholders, according to a statement.
The rise in figures underscores the stability of Dubai’s real estate sector and its growing operational maturity.
The outlook is also consistent with projections that approximately 180,000 new units will be delivered in Dubai between 2026 and 2028. This significant rise in supply, compared with prior years, is likely to dampen demand and moderate price growth, according to a Moody’s report released in February.
The newly released statement said: “The number of new tenancy contracts rose to more than 513,000, a 10 percent increase, reflecting Dubai’s strong appeal as a destination to live and work. In parallel, renewed tenancy contracts increased by 3 percent to more than 514,000, clearly indicating higher levels of stability and customer satisfaction.”
It added: “This balanced rental performance is clearly aligned with the objectives of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, which focuses on enhancing quality of life and reinforcing Dubai’s position as a global destination to live, work, and invest, alongside the Dubai Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, which aims to establish a sustainable market based on a balance between ownership and renting, clear regulatory frameworks, and an enhanced customer experience.”
The statement further underlined that the steadiness of the rental market highlights its key role as a natural pathway to homeownership and a core pillar of social and economic stability. It also supports the growth of a resilient real estate ecosystem capable of sustaining Dubai’s long-term expansion.
The year 2025 also saw clear progress in project completions, with 124 developments delivered, up 7 percent, reaching a total value of 27.5 billion dirhams, a 23 percent increase.
The number of projects under construction also rose by 25 percent to 937, signaling strong developer confidence and the durability of future growth in the real estate sector.
“The number of sold units increased by 25 percent to 147,500 units, with a total value of 280 billion dirhams, reflecting a 30 percent increase in value. Meanwhile, the value of sold villas increased by 12 percent despite a decline in volume, indicating a shift in purchasing preferences toward higher-value real estate products,” the statement said.
It added: “At the regulatory level, the real estate market witnessed unprecedented expansion in licensing, with 4,122 real estate offices registered, a 102 percent increase, bringing the total number of active real estate offices in Dubai to 10,182. This reflects the expansion of the business base and the increasing demand for brokerage, property management, development, and consultancy services within a well-regulated ecosystem governed by clear standards.”
