SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Monday as US drilling for new production stalled and as the market eyed tighter conditions once Washington’s sanctions against Iran’s crude exports kick in from November.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $68.23 per barrel at 0640 GMT, up 48 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last settlement.
Brent crude futures climbed 64 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $77.46 a barrel.
US energy companies cut two oil rigs last week, bringing the total count to 860, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.
The US rig count has stagnated since May, after staging a recovery since 2016, which followed a steep slump the previous year amid plummeting crude prices.
Outside the United States, new US sanctions against Iran’s crude exports from November were helping push up prices.
Energy consultancy FGE said several major Iran customers like India, Japan and South Korea were already cutting back on Iran crude.
“Governments can talk tough. They can say they are going to stand up to Trump and/or push for waivers. But generally the companies we speak to ... say they won’t risk it,” FGE said.
“US financial penalties and the loss of shipping insurance scares everyone,” it said in a note to clients.
Violence in Iraq, including a rocket attack on Basra airport on Saturday, also sparked fears of supply disruptions, although so far there have been no interruptions to oil exports.
Tighter outlook?
With US rig activity stalling and Iran sanctions looming, the oil market outlook is tightening.
“Investors have largely turned positive again ... likely welcoming the return of backwardation,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank.
Backwardation describes a market in which prices for immediate delivery are higher than those for later dispatch. It is considered a sign of tight conditions giving traders an incentive to sell oil immediately instead of storing it.
The Brent backwardation between October this year and mid-2019 is currently around $2.20 per barrel.
While Washington exerts pressure on other countries to fall into line and also cut imports from Iran, it is also urging other major producers to raise their output in order not to create too strong a price spike.
US Energy Secretary Rick Perry will meet counterparts from Saudi Arabia and Russia on Monday and Thursday, respectively, as the Trump administration seeks the world’s biggest exporter and producer to keep output up.
One key question going forward is how demand develops amid the trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as general emerging market weakness.
Asian shares on Monday were on track for their eighth straight session of declines, while China’s yuan and India’s rupee also came under renewed pressure as US President Donald Trump threatened yet more import tariffs on Chinese goods.
Consultancy FGE warned that “trade wars, and especially rising interest rates, can spell trouble for the emerging markets that drive (oil) demand growth.”
Despite this, FGE said the likelihood of significantly weaker oil prices was relatively low as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would withhold output to prevent prices from plunging.
“We see $65 per barrel as a trigger for cuts,” FGE said.
Oil rises as US drilling stalls, Washington sanctions on Iran loom
Oil rises as US drilling stalls, Washington sanctions on Iran loom
- US energy companies cut two oil rigs last week, bringing the total count to 860
- New US sanctions against Iran’s crude exports from November were helping push up prices
Over 3k flights cancelled across the Middle East after attack on Iran by the US, Israel
RIYADH: US and Israeli strikes on Iran led to widespread airspace shutdowns in the Middle East, canceling and rerouting thousands of flights and paralyzing key international travel corridors.
Flight cancellations affected seven airports across the Middle East, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the UAE, Doha in Qatar, and Manama in Bahrain.
Emirates Airlines said in a statement: “Due to multiple regional airspace closures, Emirates has temporarily suspended all operations to and from Dubai, up until 1500 hrs UAE time on Monday, 2 March.”
A flydubai spokesperson said the situation is evolving, and the airline is closely monitoring developments while coordinating with authorities to adjust its flight schedule.
“Our teams are working diligently to implement comprehensive welfare for all affected customers. The safety of our passengers and crew remains our highest priority,” the spokesperson said.
He added: “We are currently experiencing a high volume of calls and appreciate our customers’ patience while our teams work to assist everyone as quickly as possible.”
Qatar Airways announced that the airport will remain closed until at least the morning of March 2.
“Qatar Airways flights to, and from, Doha have been temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatari airspace,” the airline said.
It added: “Qatar Airways will resume operations once the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announces the safe reopening of Qatari airspace.”
Saudia also said in an official statement that it had canceled a number of flights due to developments in the region and the closure of airspace.
The organization said the decision was taken in line with aviation safety and security standards, noting that its Emergency Coordination Center is closely monitoring developments with relevant authorities.
Saudia urged passengers to verify the status of their flights before heading to the airport and said guests would be notified of updates through the contact details associated with their bookings.
The carrier added that further information would be announced in a subsequent statement if available.
Air Arabia also said its flights were experiencing cancellations, delays, or rerouting as a result of the evolving situation and airspace closures.
Airlines cited airspace closures and safety concerns as the main reasons for flight disruptions, urging passengers to check official channels for updates as the situation develops.
Israeli airspace also remained closed on March 1st. Israeli airline El Al said it was preparing a recovery effort to bring home Israelis stranded abroad once the airspace reopened.
Travelers were either stranded or diverted to other airports on Feb. 28 after Israel, Qatar, Syria, and Iran as well as Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain, closed their airspace.
After the UAE announced a temporary partial airspace closure, FlightRadar24 recorded no flights over the country.
The closures affected key hub airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, airlines that operate from these hubs, normally handle around 90,000 passengers daily, with even more traveling to other Middle Eastern destinations, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.
Airports hit by attacks
Two airports in the UAE reported incidents as the government there condemned what it called a “blatant attack involving Iranian ballistic missiles” on Feb.28.
Dubai International Airport, the UAE’s largest and one of the world’s busiest, reported four injuries, while Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport said a drone attack killed one person and injured seven others. Strikes were also reported at Kuwait International Airport.
Though Iran did not publicly claim responsibility, the scope of retaliatory strikes that Gulf nations attributed to Iran extended beyond the US bases that it previously said it would target.
Flight delays, cancellations are likely to continue
“For travelers, there’s no way to sugarcoat this,” said Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group.
“You should prepare for delays or cancellations for the next few days as these attacks evolve and hopefully end,” he added.
To avoid conflict zones, airlines are rerouting Middle East flights over Saudi Arabia, adding hours and fuel costs, which could push ticket prices higher if the tensions persist.
The extra flights will strain air traffic controllers in the Kingdom, who may need to slow traffic for safety. Meanwhile, countries that closed their airspace will lose out on overflight fees from passing airlines.
Mike McCormick, former head of air traffic control at the FAA and now a professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, said some countries may reopen parts of their airspace in the coming days once US and Israeli officials provide airlines with details on military flight zones and Iran’s missile capabilities.
“Those countries then will be able to go through and say, ok, we can reopen this portion of our space but we’ll keep this portion of our airspace closed,” McCormick said.
“So, I think what we’ll see in the next 24 to 36 hours is how the use of airspace evolves as the kinetic activity gets more well-defined and as the capability of Iran to actually shoot missiles and create additional risk is diminished due to the attacks,” he added.
But it is unclear how long the disruption to flight operations could last. For comparison, the Israeli and US attack on Iran in June 2025 lasted 12 days.
