ISTANBUL: Three, four, five, six… What next?
Turks have over the last half decade counted the rapid depreciation of the Turkish lira on the screens outside doviz (exchange) booths with a mixture of bewilderment, alarm and ironic amusement.
The currency had spent much of 2014 hovering at just over two to the dollar but broke through the three mark for the first time after the 2016 failed coup bid and then slid to four earlier this year.
But the haemorrhaging reached an unprecedented intensity in the last weeks as Turkey’s ties with the US strained further and markets questioned their trust in Turkish policymakers, pushing the currency to five against the dollar.
A new bout of selling Friday on increased strains with the US forced the lira over six against the dollar for the first time, with the currency at one point shredding a quarter of its value in a single day.
Economists say that while the government may be tempted to muddle through the current situation in the hope the external and economic background improves, the lira’s fall harbors considerable dangers for the economy, in particular the banking system.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s current dash for growth coupled with unorthodox pronouncements on monetary policy — including that lower rates can bring down inflation — have put him on a collision course with markets.
The central bank, nominally independent but never defying Erdogan, appears to have abandoned the conventional monetary policy of using rates hikes as a tool to support the currency and bring down inflation.
Erdogan’s “tight grip” on the central bank and the fact “higher interest rates do no fit with Turkey’s economic growth strategy” meant that the central bank has kept interest rates on hold, Nora Neuteboom, economist at ABN Amro, told AFP.
“Erdogan’s aim is to improve the economic position of households,” she said, adding the government wanted to “keep the music playing” even as external and internal imbalances grow.
After his June 24 election victory, Erdogan put his son-in-law Berat Albayrak in charge of a newly expanded finance ministry while a new presidential system did away with the office of prime minister, whose last incumbent Binali Yildirim had on occasion urged caution in economic policy.
The new system also increased Erdogan’s control over the central bank, which on July 24 baffled markets by leaving rates unchanged despite inflation that in July came in at 15.85 percent.
“The markets have lost confidence in the triumvirate of President Erdogan, his son-in-law as finance minister and the Turkish Central Bank’s ability to act as it needs to,” said Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital.
According to the Capital Economics consultancy, the plunge in the lira risks putting further pressure on the banking sector in Turkey due to the scale of the credit boom and one third of bank lending being denominated in foreign currencies.
“If some of these vulnerabilities crystalize they could tip the economy into a full blown crisis,” said its economist Yasemin Engin.
US investment bank Goldman Sachs alarmed investors with an assessment that a further drop in the lira to 7.1 to the dollar “could largely erode” the excess capital of Turkish banks.
As the lira tumbled in value — with no breakthrough in sight in the impasse with the US, sparked by the jailing of American pastor Andrew Brunson — the government has remained sanguine with few comments aimed at rallying markets.
The issue has also largely stayed off the front pages of mainstream Turkish newspapers, where critical Turkish economists are given little space, leaving social media as the main forum of debate.
“The pro-government media is diverting attention by showing movies and series,” complained Mustafa outside an exchange booth close to Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar.
The external value of the lira is not a prime concern of Erdogan’s core supporters, many of whom have no plans for foreign holidays and readily accept government rhetoric that economic problems are caused by outsiders seeking to weaken Turkey.
“I have full confidence in this government, I’m sure it will find a way out and reverse the trend,” said Erdogan supporter Sabahattin.
Should the woes of the lira risk feeding into a widescale economic crisis, the government still has levers at its disposal.
It could impose capital controls on forex transfers or even call on the IMF for bailout help, although economists regard the former an extreme measure with only marginal probability and the latter unlikely given one of Erdogan’s proudest achievements was paying off all of Turkey’s IMF debt in 2013.
But he could also swallow his pride and allow the central bank to make an emergency rate hike as it did on May 23 one month ahead of the elections, when a 300 basis points hike in the headline rate was announced.
“Erdogan is pragmatic,” commented Neuteboom.
“And if the situation continues to deteriorate and the lira depreciation and high inflation have a too big an impact on the economic situation — and that is what it looks like right now — he will in the end give in.”
Turkey’s lira crisis: How bad can it get?
Turkey’s lira crisis: How bad can it get?
- Relations with US turn increasingly sour
- Selling pushes lira to five to the dollar
Building bridges: Saudi Arabia leads Gulf-Asia tech leap
ALKHOBAR: Saudi Arabia is forging new academic connections with Asia as the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 accelerates reforms in education and innovation.
Two academics — Prof. Eman AbuKhousa, a data science professor at the University of Europe for Applied Sciences in Dubai, and Prof. Hui Kai-Lung, acting dean of the HKUST Business School in Hong Kong —emphasize that the Kingdom’s transformation is reshaping the development of artificial intelligence and fintech talent across the region.
For AbuKhousa, responsible AI is not just about technology; it is fundamentally about intention. “It is about aligning technology with human values: ensuring fairness, transparency, and accountability in every system we build.”
She highlighted that the Middle East’s heritage of trust and ethics gives the region a competitive advantage. “Institutions should embed ethics and cultural context into AI education and create multidisciplinary labs where engineers collaborate with social scientists and ethicists,” she said.
At the University of Europe for Applied Sciences in Dubai, AbuKhousa trains students to question data, identify bias, and integrate integrity into innovation.
“Educators must model responsible use by explaining how data is sourced and decisions are made,” she explained. “Ultimately, responsible AI is less about algorithms than about intention; teaching future innovators to ask not only ‘Can we?’ but ‘Should we?’”
She further noted:“Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has turned digital education into a national movement placing technology and innovation at the heart of human development.”
AbuKhousa emphasized the transformative opportunities for women in the Kingdom: “Today, Saudi female students are designing models, leading AI startups, and redefining what digital leadership looks like.”
Prof. Hui views this transformation through the lens of fintech. “Fintech is deeply embedded in Vision 2030, serving as a key enabler of its three pillars: a vibrant society, a thriving economy, and an ambitious nation,” he said.
Hui stressed that Saudi Arabia’s investment capacity and modern regulatory framework “create a conducive environment for innovation.” Having collaborated with Aramco, The Financial Academy, and Prince Mohammed Bin Salman College of Business and Entrepreneurship, he highlighted the strategic potential of the Kingdom’s young population. “The Kingdom has one of the youngest populations in the world, with a median age below 30,” he said.
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“This demographic presents a tremendous opportunity for higher education to shape future leaders, and our collaborations in Saudi Arabia are highly targeted to support this goal.”
AbuKhousa argued that universities must lead innovation rather than follow it. “Universities must evolve from teaching institutions into innovation ecosystems,” she said. “The real bridge between research and industry lies in applied collaboration: joint labs, shared data projects, and co-supervised capstones where students solve live industry challenges.”
“At UE Dubai, we’ve introduced an Honorary Senate of Business Leaders to strengthen that bridge, bringing decision-makers directly into the learning process,” she added.
DID YOU KNOW?
Vision 2030 has made digital education central to Saudi Arabia’s development strategy.
Women in Saudi Arabia are now designing AI models and leading startups.
Universities are transforming into innovation ecosystems bridging research and industry.
Cross-border collaborations with Hong Kong and Dubai are accelerating fintech and AI growth.
Hui noted that cross-border cooperation between Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia is growing rapidly. “Saudi Arabia’s scale, strategic location, and leadership in the Arab world offer Hong Kong an ideal partner,” he said. “Hong Kong’s academic and regulatory experience can help the Kingdom fast-track its digital transformation.”
He highlighted lessons from Hong Kong’s fintech journey. “Hong Kong’s fintech journey offers critical lessons for Saudi Arabia, particularly in creating a balanced ecosystem for innovation,” he said. “Education and regulation are both important. We need education at all levels and beyond schools to expose people to these ideas; having diverse and rich experiences also helps, as the education needs to be supplemented by real-life implementation and usage experience. That is what Hong Kong can offer.”
AbuKhousa emphasized that women’s participation in technology must extend beyond access to influence. “Empowering women in technology begins with reimagining representation: from inclusion to influence,” she said. “We need more women not only learning tech, but leading teams, designing systems, and shaping AI policy. Institutions must normalize women’s presence in decision-making spaces and provide visible mentorship networks to counter imposter syndrome.”
Both experts agreed that innovation must remain human-centered and accountable. “As AI becomes integral to financial systems, governments must strike a careful balance between innovation, data ethics, and compliance,” Hui said. “Establishing clear regulatory frameworks and transparency standards is crucial.”
AbuKhousa concurred, emphasizing the role of education in AI adoption: “Educators must position generative AI as a thinking partner, not a shortcut. The goal is to teach students how to use AI critically, not merely that they can.”
Hui predicts that “AI, blockchain, and cybersecurity will be transformative forces in the region’s financial sector.” AbuKhousa sees a similar momentum in education: “The Gulf is entering a defining phase where AI becomes the backbone of education and workforce development.”
The experts concluded that the Kingdom’s digital transformation, anchored in Vision 2030, is connecting classrooms, industries, and continents through human-centered innovation.
