Religious groups’ vote bank might dent PML-N in Lahore, say analysts

LAHORE: Despite a high-flying presence on banners and social media, none of the religious parties’ candidates contesting for the national or the Punjab provincial assembly seats from Lahore is apparently poised to win in Wednesday’s (July 25) polls, analysts observed while talking to Arab News.
A few among those will, however, heavily affect some national assembly seats as they are indirectly facilitating Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), which could possibly dent the Pakistan Muslim League -Nawaz (PML-N) vote bank.
The religious and religio-political parties have fielded 30 candidates for the July 25 polls and the candidates of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Party (TLP), led by firebrand cleric Allama Khadim Rizvi, are greater in number than any other religious party.
The alliance of major religio-political parties Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) has 12 and TLP has 13 candidates in the run from Lahore.
Surprisingly, the head of Markazi Jamiat Ahlehadith, Professor Sajid Mir, whose party is part of MMA, has asked followers not to vote for MMA candidates but to support the PML-N.
“The MMA candidates cannot win in Lahore. Do not waste your vote and poll it in the favor of PML-N candidates,” Mir said while addressing his party workers in Lahore three days ago.
The other religio-political parties who have fielded their candidates include: Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek (AAT), the political face of Hafiz Saeed’s Jamaat-ud-Dawa (the authorities did not register his party Milli Muslim League) has four candidates, Sunni Ittehad Council has one and Tehreek-i-Labaik Islami (TLI) has also one candidate in the run.
The TLP leadership is very optimistic that its candidates will bag at least 15,000 to 20,000 votes in every constituency.
“We are in a good position in the suburbs of Punjab. In Lahore, we are not in winning positions but our candidates will be in No. 3 position by securing 15,000 to 20,000 votes. We have fielded candidates more than any other religious party even more than MMA, despite being new in the election politics,” Sahibzada Usman Ali Jalali told Arab News.
Apparently religious political parties are not in a position to win even a single seat but can play a critical role in the possible rout of PML-N.
The constituencies include NA 125, NA 126, NA 127 and NA 128.
“In three or four constituencies the TLP candidates can win a considerable number of votes. They are not in a position to win a seat but would badly damage the PML-N candidates,” said Chaudhary Khadim Hussain, a senior political analyst.
NA 125 is the stronghold of PML-N and Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif has won the seat since 1988.
Begum Kulsoom Nawaz also won the seat in by-elections; it has fallen vacant because of the disqualification of her husband Nawaz Sharif.
Maryam Nawaz was the candidate from PML-N in this constituency but preferred to shift to 127 and now Waheed Alam is the party candidate here.
The PTI has fielded Dr. Yasmeen Rashid, who has lost to Nawaz and Kulsoom in the past.
Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek’s Yaqoob Sheikh and TLP’s Maimoona Hamid are contesting the elections from the constituency.
Yaqoob Sheikh and Sh. Azhar of TLP have bagged considerable votes from this constituency in by-elections.
Analysts believe the vote bank of the two religious parties’ candidates is intact, and if Shaikhs secure a good number of votes that will give an edge to Dr. Yasmeen Rashed of PTI.
“We will cast votes for Yaqoob Sheikh as it is his religious duty to wipe out the corrupt. PML-N and PTI are both corrupt; we have to bring dutiful leadership,” Ashraf Rehman, a voter in the area, told Arab News.
The second constituency is NA 126 where PTI’s Hammad Azhar is challenging PML-N’s Mehar Ishtiaq.
The TLP had fielded Waqas Ahmed but there is no candidate for MMA and AAT in this area.
This is also a PML-N stronghold as it has not lost even a single election from here since 1990.
The TLP headquarters is also situated in the vicinity and Allama Khadim Rizvi’s seminary is also here.
The party is working hard in this constituency and hoping for 25,000 votes.
If the TLP secured about 10,000 votes in the constituency the PML-N candidate might not win.
From NA 127 Ali Pervaiz is an independent candidate backed by the PML-N after the disqualification of Maryam Nawaz and is challenging PTI’s Jamshed Iqbal Cheema.
MMA has fielded Rashid Khan, TLP Muhammad Zaheer and AAT Mian Amir Abbas. The area too has significant votes for religious groups and can hit the PML-N party position in the constituency.
In NA-128 Dr. Ashraf Asif Jalali is a candidate of Tehreek-i-Labbaik Islam (TLI).
Dr. Asharf and Allama Rizvi jointly headed Tehreek-i-Labaik Ya Rasoolallah but parted ways owing to differences.
The area is a PML-N stronghold as Sheikh Rohail has been winning this seat in the past.
PTI has fielded Ijaz Ahmed Siyal.
This time all the TLP and TLI voters have decided to vote for Ashraf Jalali, which could damage the PML-N.
NA 135 is another area where PML-N’s Malik Saiful Malook is challenging his relative PTI’s Malik Karamat.
This area is also a PML-N stronghold but this time TLP has fielded Ahmed Majeed from the same clan.
It is a rural area and people are impressed by religious appeal. The TLP candidate can secure a considerable vote from the area that could benefit the PTI.
The big names of the MMA -– Liqat Baloch, Amirul Azeem, Hafiz Salman Butt, Molana Amjad — are also contesting from different constituencies but are not even in the race of winning candidates.