BEIRUT/DAMASCUS: By ousting opposition groups from Daraa, the cradle of the Syrian uprising, Bashar Assad strengthened his grip on the country — but large swathes of territory remain beyond the regime’s control.
Syrian opposition fighters in Daraa were surrendering their heavy weapons to regime forces on Saturday, state media said, under a deal brokered by Russia.
It came a day after the regime and opposition began dismantling the dirt barriers that had divided the city for years, AFP’s correspondent said.
The agreement reached on Wednesday will see Daraa city fall back into regime control.
Negotiated by Moscow, it provides for the opposition to hand over heavy- and medium-duty weapons and to “reconcile” legally with the regime, according to state media.
Those who rejected the deal would be allowed safe passage out of the city.
The terms mirror a broader deal announced on July 6 for the entire province of Daraa, which would be implemented in three stages: The eastern countryside first, then the city, and finally the province’s west.
While the opposition groups have handed over weapons to regime forces in dozens of towns, no transfers of fighters or civilians to the opposition-held north have taken place yet.
The Daraa deals are the latest in a string of so-called “reconciliation” agreements that typically follow blistering military offensives.
After using the strategy to secure Damascus and other strategic parts of Syria since 2015, Assad turned his attention to the south.
Beginning on June 19, Syrian and Russian bombardment pounded opposition-controlled areas in Daraa and the neighboring province of Quneitra, ostensibly protected by an internationally agreed cease-fire.
The onslaught came to an end with the July 6 cease-fire.
Following Russia’s military intervention at the end of 2015, the regime secured a series of victories with additional support from its Iranian ally.
This year it secured the capital Damascus and its surroundings for the first time since 2012, before launching the offensive to take Daraa in the south of the country.
Loyalist forces now control more than 60 percent of Syria, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor.
Syria’s main cities — Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Daraa — known as “useful Syria,” are all in regime hands.
Regime-held territory accounts for 72 percent of the population, according to Fabrice Balanche, a political geographer specializing in Syria.
The northwestern province of Idlib, on the border with Turkey, is the main bastion of Syria’s insurgents.
In the north and northwest, Ankara-backed groups control the town of Al-Bab in Aleppo province and other areas near the Turkish border.
With their rebel allies, Turkish forces seized the town of Afrin in March, ousting Kurdish fighters who pledged an insurgency to retake it.
In the south, opposition groups remain in Quneitra province, which borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Overall, the insurgents control no more than 9 percent of the country, according to the Observatory.
In addition to the military defeats, groups have split geographically and have also broken up into smaller factions over the years of war.
The semi-autonomous Kurdish zone, established during the war, represents the largest part of Syria outside of regime control.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-Arab coalition backed by the US, controls 27.4 percent of the country, Observatory figures show.
Within this are important oil fields in northeastern Syria.
The SDF has played a fundamental role in the fight against Daesh during the war.
With the backing of the anti-jihadist coalition led by Washington, last year the SDF drove Daesh out of Raqqa, which the group had declared its de-facto capital in Syria.
After mounting a lightning offensive across Iraq and Syria in 2014, proclaiming a cross-border “caliphate,” Daesh has seen its territory drastically reduced.
The terror outfit now holds just a few pockets in eastern Syria, along the Iraqi border and close to the Euphrates, and it is also present in some central desert areas such as Homs province.
Having once controlled nearly half of Syria, Daesh has seen its territory reduced to less than 3 percent of the country, the Observatory says.
Syria’s conflict has killed more than 350,000 people and displaced millions since it started in 2011.
Swaths of Syria out of regime hands despite Daraa victory
Swaths of Syria out of regime hands despite Daraa victory
- Following Russia’s military intervention at the end of 2015, the regime secured a series of victories with additional support from its Iranian ally
- Loyalist forces now control more than 60 percent of Syria, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor
Gaza ceasefire enters phase two despite unresolved issues
- Under the second phase, Gaza is to be administered by a 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee operating under the supervision of a so-called “Board of Peace,” to be chaired by Trump
JERUSALEM: A US-backed plan to end the war in Gaza has entered its second phase despite unresolved disputes between Israel and Hamas over alleged ceasefire violations and issues unaddressed in the first stage.
The most contentious questions remain Hamas’s refusal to publicly commit to full disarmament, a non-negotiable demand from Israel, and Israel’s lack of clarity over whether it will fully withdraw its forces from Gaza.
The creation of a Palestinian technocratic committee, announced on Wednesday, is intended to manage day-to-day governance in post-war Gaza, but it leaves unresolved broader political and security questions.
Below is a breakdown of developments from phase one to the newly launched second stage.
Gains and gaps in phase one
The first phase of the plan, part of a 20-point proposal unveiled by US President Donald Trump, began on October 10 and aimed primarily to stop the fighting in the Gaza Strip, allow in aid and secure the return of all remaining living and deceased hostages held by Hamas and allied Palestinian militant groups.
All hostages have since been returned, except for the remains of one Israeli, Ran Gvili.
Israel has accused Hamas of delaying the handover of Gvili’s body, while Hamas has said widespread destruction in Gaza made locating the remains difficult.
Gvili’s family had urged mediators to delay the transition to phase two.
“Moving on breaks my heart. Have we given up? Ran did not give up on anyone,” his sister, Shira Gvili, said after mediators announced the move.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said efforts to recover Gvili’s remains would continue but has not publicly commented on the launch of phase two.
Hamas has accused Israel of repeated ceasefire violations, including air strikes, firing on civilians and advancing the so-called “Yellow Line,” an informal boundary separating areas under Israeli military control from those under Hamas authority.
Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry said Israeli forces had killed 451 people since the ceasefire took effect.
Israel’s military said it had targeted suspected militants who crossed into restricted zones near the Yellow Line, adding that three Israeli soldiers were also killed by militants during the same period.
Aid agencies say Israel has not allowed the volume of humanitarian assistance envisaged under phase one, a claim Israel rejects.
Gaza, whose borders and access points remain under Israeli control, continues to face severe shortages of food, clean water, medicine and fuel.
Israel and the United Nations have repeatedly disputed figures on the number of aid trucks permitted to enter the Palestinian territory.
Disarmament, governance in phase two
Under the second phase, Gaza is to be administered by a 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee operating under the supervision of a so-called “Board of Peace,” to be chaired by Trump.
“The ball is now in the court of the mediators, the American guarantor and the international community to empower the committee,” Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas leader, said in a statement on Thursday.
Trump on Thursday announced the board of peace had been formed and its members would be announced “shortly.”
Mediators Egypt, Turkiye and Qatar said Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister in the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority, had been appointed to lead the committee.
Later on Thursday, Egyptian state television reported that all members of the committee had “arrived in Egypt and begun their meetings in preparation for entering the territory.”
Al-Qahera News, which is close to Egypt’s state intelligence services, said the members’ arrival followed US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff’s announcement on Wednesday “of the start of the second phase and what was agreed upon at the meeting of Palestinian factions in Cairo yesterday.”
Shaath, in a recent interview, said the committee would rely on “brains rather than weapons” and would not coordinate with armed groups.
On Wednesday, Witkoff said phase two aims for the “full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza,” including the disarmament of all unauthorized armed factions.
Witkoff said Washington expected Hamas to fulfil its remaining obligations, including the return of Gvili’s body, warning that failure to do so would bring “serious consequences.”
The plan also calls for the deployment of an International Stabilization Force to help secure Gaza and train vetted Palestinian police units.
For Palestinians, the central issue remains Israel’s full military withdrawal from Gaza — a step included in the framework but for which no detailed timetable has been announced.
With fundamental disagreements persisting over disarmament, withdrawal and governance, diplomats say the success of phase two will depend on sustained pressure from mediators and whether both sides are willing — or able — to move beyond long-standing red lines.
