LONDON: The oil industry will face the biggest squeeze on its spare production capacity in more than three decades if OPEC and its allies agree next week to hike crude output, leaving the world more at risk of a price spike from any supply disruption.
Spare capacity is the extra production oil producing states can bring onstream and sustain at short notice, providing global markets with a cushion in the event of natural disaster, conflict or any other cause of an unplanned supply outage.
That buffer could shrink from more than 3 percent of global demand now to about 2 percent, its lowest since at least 1984, if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers decide to increase output when they meet on June 22-23, US bank Jefferies said.
“You would essentially be taking 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of spare capacity down to approximately 2 million bpd,” Jefferies analyst Jason Gammel said, adding global demand was 100 million bpd.
Some analysts say spare capacity could even fall below 2 percent, after years of low oil prices drove down investment in new production across the industry.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader which has indicated its support for hiking output at next week’s meeting in Vienna, has said it is alert to the potential squeeze on the market.
“We are concerned about tight spare capacity nowadays,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said last month, although he also said the industry was in “better shape” than in 2016 when oil prices plunged below $30 a barrel.
OPEC and its allies have been curbing supply since January 2017 to boost oil prices and cut bloated global inventories. The price of crude has since surged, climbing above $80 a barrel last month, while inventories have also fallen.
But falling inventories, which have now dropped back to around their five-year average in industrialized nations, adds to the conundrum facing OPEC.
“Today we no longer have an inventory cushion or a large spare capacity,” Claudio Descalzi, chief executive of Italy’s Eni, said in January. “In this context, any geopolitical event can create a price spike.”
Oil prices have faced one jolt already this year. A US decision to pull out from an international nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose sanctions helped prices climb to their highest since 2014. Sliding Venezuelan output has added to supply concerns.
“The high level of inventory over the past few years has meant that the market did not need to react to rising political risk, because the inventory was effectively the same thing as spare capacity,” Gammel of Jefferies bank said.
Iran’s OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, said last week that the oil price could jump to $140 if US sanctions hurt his oil exports from this country, the third biggest producer in OPEC behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Benchmark Brent crude is now trading above $76.
Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley’s global oil strategist, said oil prices would be supported “if supply and demand is in balance, if inventories have drawn significantly and spare capacity isn’t all that great.”
The precise level of spare capacity available depends in part on how it is defined.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency, which bases its figures on oil production that can be brought onstream within 90 days and sustained for an extended period, estimates OPEC’s spare production capacity was 3.47 million bpd in April, with Saudi Arabia accounting for roughly 60 percent.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which defines it as production that can be brought online for 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, put OPEC’s spare capacity at 1.91 million bpd in the first quarter.
Based on the EIA definition, Robert McNally at consultancy Rapidan Energy Group said Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates together had spare capacity of about 2.3 million bpd.
“So were they to raise by 1 million bpd, then 1.3 million bpd is left, scraping the low end of the range historically and uncomfortably tight given the high and rising geopolitical disruption risk,” McNally said. But OPEC, Russia and others have said any increase in output would be made gradually.
Consultancy Energy Aspects said Gulf OPEC members would likely add less than 1 million bpd immediately, rising to about 1.5 million bpd in three to six months.
Energy Aspects analyst Sam Alderson said he expected OPEC and Russia to add about 500,000 bpd of production in the second half of 2018, which would reduce spare capacity as a percentage of demand to about 1.75 percent by December 2018. Saudi Arabia, with the bulk of the world’s spare capacity, has said it would need 90 days to move rigs to drill new wells and raise production to 12 million or 12.5 million bpd. The kingdom’s output in May was about 10 million bpd.
But Saudi Arabia could even boost production beyond its stated output capacity of about 12.5 million bpd, possibly adding another 1 million bpd of what is known as surge capacity.
The kingdom did this during wars in the Gulf and Iraq, but the surge in output was only sustained for a few months.
Oil buffer to hit historic lows if OPEC, allies raise production
Oil buffer to hit historic lows if OPEC, allies raise production
- Spare capacity is the extra production oil producing states can bring onstream and sustain at short notice
- The precise level of spare capacity available depends in part on how it is defined
Gulf oil exports could stop within weeks, warns Qatar energy minister as Iran war continues
RIYADH: Gulf oil producers could halt exports within weeks due to the ongoing Middle East war, sending crude prices to $150 a barrel, according to Qatar’s energy minister.
In an interview published on Friday, Saad Al-Kaabi warned oil could hit the figure in two to three weeks if ships and tankers were unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world's most vital oil export route as it connects the biggest Gulf oil producers with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
Hostilities between US-Israeli forces and Iran, which began with strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, has continued to cause widespread disruption across the region, and led to the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of multiple national airspaces.
Speaking to the Financial Times, A-Kaabi said that “everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure.”
As well as the $150-a-barrel oil price warning, the minister also expects gas prices to rise to $40 per million British thermal units.
He added that if the war continues for a few weeks, “GDP growth around the world” will be impacted.
“Everybody's energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply,” Kaabi said.
Qatar halted its liquefied natural gas production on March 2, as Iranian retaliation for US and Israeli strikes continued to target Gulf countries. The halt takes a major facility offline that accounts for roughly 20 percent of global supply, a key resource that balances demand in both Asian and European markets.
Al-Kaabi said even if the war ended immediately it would take Qatar “weeks to months” to return to a normal cycle of deliveries.
Oil continues to rise
Oil prices rose again on Friday, with Brent crude up 2.77 percent to $87.78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate up 4.41 percent to $84.36 at 11:47 a.m. GMT
The price surge followed the start of the war on Feb. 28, which halted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that typically carries approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply, or about 20 million barrels per day.
The conflict has since spread across the key Middle East energy-producing region, causing disruptions to oil output and the shutdown of refineries and liquefied natural gas plants.
The US Treasury Department indicated it would announce measures to combat rising energy prices from the Iran conflict, including potential action involving the oil futures market, a move that would mark an unusual attempt by Washington to influence energy prices through financial markets rather than physical oil supplies.
The Treasury also granted waivers for companies to start buying sanctioned Russian oil stored on tankers to ease supply constraints that have pushed Asian refineries to reduce fuel processing.
“To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X.
He emphasized that India is an “essential partner” and expressed anticipation that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. “This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage.”
Imad Salamey, professor of political science and international affairs at the Lebanese American University, told Arab News that such measures “may work as short-term shock absorbers by calming markets and preventing immediate price spikes.”
However, he warned that financial engineering cannot permanently compensate for disrupted physical supply.
“If the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired, markets will eventually adjust to the reality of reduced flows. Relying too heavily on financial tools risks creating distortions where prices no longer reflect actual supply conditions,” Salamey explained.
If the war drags on and global economic costs continue to rise daily, Salamey added, the impact will spread far beyond the region. “Substituting Gulf oil with supplies from Russia or Venezuela could severely damage Gulf economies and shift long-term market dynamics,” he warned.
In an interview with Arab News, economist and Lebanese University professor Jassem Ajaka noted that “US President Donald Trump would not allow an internal uprising to undermine him before the midterm elections, suggesting he would make strategic reserves available if needed.”
He added that the US also has the capacity to ramp up shale oil production, as higher prices make extraction more economically viable. Trump said on March 4 that the US Navy may escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Aramco pricing reflects return of geopolitical risk premium
Saudi Aramco’s crude oil differentials for April 2026, reflect the severe fragmentation of the regional energy market. The OSPs showed significant premiums for light crude grades across North America, Northwest Europe, Asia, and the Mediterranean.
In the Asian market versus Oman/Dubai, Super Light crude commanded a premium of $4.15 in April, up from $2.15 in March, a change of plus $2. Extra Light crude in Asia rose to $3 from $1, while Light crude reached $2.50 from zero. Medium and Heavy grades in Asia saw smaller increases but remained in positive territory for April.
Ajaka said: “Saudi oil giant Aramco has demonstrated its ability to deliver oil through alternative routes, specifically via pipelines to the Red Sea, despite supply disruptions caused by the ongoing war.”
This, he explained, highlights how Saudi Arabia is leveraging its position as a “reliable supplier” in a region where many other producers are either sanctioned, directly targeted, or logistically constrained.
Salamey said Iran aims to widen the conflict to make it globally costly: “By threatening Gulf infrastructure and shipping, Tehran hopes GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) states will pressure Washington to negotiate and end the war.”
According to the expert, Tehran seeks sustained disruption of energy markets rather than a full blockade, since a total closure would “almost certainly” trigger a major military response. The strategy risks backfiring if direct harm to Gulf states pushes them to join the war.
Airlines grapple with airspace closures
The region’s aviation sector has faced its most severe test since the COVID-19 pandemic, with carriers across the Middle East announcing mass cancelations and emergency schedule adjustments.
Etihad Airways said it would resume a limited commercial flight schedule from March 6, operating between Abu Dhabi and a number of key destinations, while Emirates Airline is operating a reduced flight schedule until further notice, following the limited reopening of airspace.
Qatar Airways announced that its scheduled flight operations remain temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatari airspace, and it would provide a further update on March 7.
Saudi low-cost carrier Flynas confirmed it is operating limited exceptional flights between Saudi Arabia and Dubai starting from March 6.
Saudia Airlines, however, canceled flights to and from Amman, Kuwait, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Bahrain, effective until March 6 at 23:59 GMT.
In Beirut, Middle East Airlines’ spokesperson Rima Makkaoui told Arab News that the carrier is “operating flights to all destinations normally, except those that have their airspace closed such as Iraq and Kuwait.”
MEA announced a strict new No-Show policy, imposing a $300 fee for economy class and $500 for business class passengers who fail to cancel bookings within the specified timeframe.
The move comes in response to passengers and travel agents booking multiple seats simultaneously, then failing to show up without cancelation, depriving other travelers of seats during this critical period.
Royal Jordanian continued operating flights to Beirut as scheduled, while flights to Doha and Dubai remained canceled according to the Queen Alia International Airport website.
