Denuclearization: The great divide for Kim-Trump summit

A pedestrian walks in front of a screen in Tokyo on May 25, 2018 flashing a news report relating to US President Donald Trump cancelling his meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. (File photo: AFP)
Updated 08 June 2018
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Denuclearization: The great divide for Kim-Trump summit

  • Pyongyang’s decades-long pursuit of atomic weapons and the means to deliver them to the US have seen it subjected to multiple rounds of sanctions
  • Washington is demanding the North give up its weapons in a complete, verifiable and irreversible way

SEOUL: The issue at the top of US President Donald Trump’s agenda for his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is also the most complicated — denuclearization.
Pyongyang’s decades-long pursuit of atomic weapons and the means to deliver them to the US have seen it subjected to multiple rounds of sanctions by the UN Security Council, US, EU and others, and tensions soared last year as the two men traded personal insults and threats of war.
Now after a rapid diplomatic rapprochement they will hold an unprecedented meeting in Singapore.
But despite the positive imagery of recent months — and the global headlines the summit will generate — the gap they will need to breach is a chasm.
“It does strike me as very difficult for Kim to give up the only thing that makes him important and that is nuclear weapons,” former US deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told reporters in Tokyo.
“The distance from where we are now to where we need to be is measured in years.”
Washington is demanding the North give up its weapons in a complete, verifiable and irreversible way (CVID).
Pyongyang, for its part, has repeatedly expressed a commitment to the denuclearization of the peninsula, but the phrase is a diplomatic euphemism open to interpretation on both sides and the North has given no public indication of what concessions it might be offering.
Instead Kim has — according to Chinese state media reports of his discussion with President Xi Jinping — called for Washington and Seoul to “remove security threats against the DPRK” and take “phased and synchronous” steps in response to its own moves.
The comments are a clear indication that Pyongyang will seek concessions of its own.
Early signals from the US suggested Washington expected the North to hand over its arsenal.
National security adviser John Bolton’s reference to a “Libya model” infuriated Pyongyang, given that leader Muammar Qaddafi was deposed and killed in a NATO-backed rebellion after abandoning his nuclear program.
More recently Trump has dialled down immediate expectations, saying the summit could be the first of several.
“I think it’s not a one meeting deal,” he said Thursday, but insisted: “If they don’t denuclearise, that will not be acceptable.”

The impoverished North has devoted vast resources to its weapons programs, making rapid progress under Kim.
Last year it carried out by far its most powerful nuclear test to date — with a yield commensurate with an H-bomb — and launched intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.
Aside from its nuclear arsenal, the North is also believed to have 2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons developed since the 1980s, according to the South’s military.
It has yet to conclusively demonstrate that it has the capability to shrink a nuclear warhead to fit inside a missile, accurate targeting, or the re-entry technology needed for it to survive coming back into the Earth’s atmosphere from space.
But it says it has mastered all three, and Kim has declared the development of the country’s “treasured sword” complete.
Estimates of the North’s nuclear capability vary.
Seoul puts the North’s plutonium stockpile at more than 50 kilogrammes, enough to produce around 10 weapons, adding Pyongyang also has “a significant amount” of highly-enriched uranium.
“For the Trump administration, the essence of the talks is likely to boil down to ICBMs and nuclear warheads,” Hong Min, analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told AFP.

Siegfried Hecker, a noted US nuclear expert, said the immediate CVID of the North was “unimaginable” and “tantamount to a North Korean surrender scenario,” and proposed a 10-year roadmap to “halt, roll back and eliminate” its weapons programs.
But speculation is mounting in Seoul that Trump — who pledged at his inauguration to put “America first” — could accept Pyongyang giving up its ICBMs and freezing its atomic program at current levels in exchange for recognizing it as a nuclear power.
That would remove the threat against the US mainland, while leaving Washington’s allies South Korea and Japan still within Pyongyang’s reach — a scenario likely to alarm Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in particular.
The leader of South Korea’s main Liberty Korea opposition party on Thursday urged Trump not to agree to “any deal” purely to guarantee the security of the US.
Hong Joon-pyo raised the spectre of the 1938 Munich Agreement, in which then British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain agreed Nazi Germany could seize part of Czechoslovakia.
“It would be very unfortunate if the fate of the Republic of Korea is decided as a result of a battle for hegemony between the US and China,” the North’s traditional backer, he told reporters.
If Pyongyang were tacitly recognized as a nuclear power, he said, “there will be only one option for South Korea and Japan.”
“We have to arm ourselves with nuclear weapons.”


Junta leader Gen. Mamdi Doumbouya is declared winner of Guinea’s election, provisional results show

Updated 56 min 27 sec ago
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Junta leader Gen. Mamdi Doumbouya is declared winner of Guinea’s election, provisional results show

  • Mamady Doumbouya took power in 2021 coup

CONAKRY, Guinea: Guinea coup leader ​Mamady Doumbouya has been elected president, according to provisional results announced on Tuesday, completing the return to civilian rule in the bauxite- and iron ore-rich West African nation.
The former special forces commander, thought to be in his early 40s, seized power in 2021, toppling then-President Alpha Conde, who had been in office since 2010. It was one in a series of nine coups that have reshaped politics in West and Central Africa since 2020.
The provisional results announced ‌on Tuesday showed Doumbouya ‌winning 86.72 percent of the December 28 vote, ‌an ⁠absolute majority ​that allows ‌him to avoid a runoff.
The Supreme Court has eight days to validate the results in the event of any challenge.
Doumbouya’s victory, which gives him a seven-year mandate, was widely expected. Conde and Cellou Dalein Diallo, Guinea’s longtime opposition leader, are in exile, which left Doumbouya to face a fragmented field of eight challengers.
Doumbouya reversed pledge not to run
The original post-coup charter in Guinea barred junta members from running ⁠in elections, but a constitution dropping those restrictions was passed in a September referendum.
Djenabou Toure, the ‌country’s top election official who announced the results on ‍Tuesday night, said turnout was 80,95 percent. However ‍voter participation appeared tepid in the capital Conakry, and opposition politicians rejected ‍a similarly high turnout figure for the September referendum.
Guinea holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves and the richest untapped iron ore deposit at Simandou, officially launched last month after years of delay.
Doumbouya has claimed credit for pushing the project forward and ensuring Guinea benefits ​from its output.
His government this year also revoked the license of Emirates Global Aluminium’s subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation following a refinery dispute, ⁠transferring the unit’s assets to a state-owned firm.
The turn toward resource nationalism — echoed in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — has boosted his popularity, as has his relative youth in a country where the median age is about 19.
Political space restricted, UN says
Political debate has been muted under Doumbouya. Civil society groups accuse his government of banning protests, curbing press freedom and restricting opposition activity.
The campaign period was “severely restricted, marked by intimidation of opposition actors, apparently politically motivated enforced disappearances, and constraints on media freedom,” UN rights chief Volker Turk said last week.
On Monday, opposition candidate Faya Lansana Millimono told a press conference the election was marred by “systematic fraudulent practices” and ‌that observers were prevented from monitoring the voting and counting processes.
The government did not respond to a request for comment.