Iran scrambles for European lifeline

A special meeting of the Joint Commission of parties to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) on Iran’s nuclear deal is in progress in Vienna. (Reuters)
Updated 26 May 2018
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Iran scrambles for European lifeline

  • ‘Noose is tightening on Tehran’ in face of US sanctions, expert tells Arab News
  • US President Donald Trump has long criticized the deal with Iran saying it failed to do enough to curtail Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

JEDDAH: Signatories of the Iran nuclear deal met in Vienna on Friday in a bid to save the agreement after Washington’s dramatic withdrawal earlier this month.

For the first time since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) came into force in 2015, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany gathered — at Iran’s request — without the US, which pulled out of the agreement on May 8 and said it would reinstate sanctions.

US President Donald Trump has long criticized the deal with Iran — concluded under his predecessor Barack Obama — saying it failed to do enough to curtail Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Speaking to AFP after Friday’s meeting, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said: “We are negotiating... to see if they can provide us with a package that can give Iran the benefits of sanctions lifting.” 

“Practical solutions” were required to address Iran’s concerns over its oil exports, banking flows and foreign investment in the country, he said.

Russian delegate Mikhail Ulyanov struck an upbeat note after the meeting, saying: “We have all the chances to succeed, provided we have the political will.

Harvard scholar and Iranian affairs expert Majid Rafizadeh told Arab News that it would be against Europe’s interests to stay in the deal.

“The European nations should be cognizant of the fact that the beneficiary of the nuclear deal is Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and its militias,” he said. “Staying in the deal or submitting to the Iranian regime’s new demands will inflict damage on the EU’s geopolitical and national security interest in the short and long term.”

The EU could not thwart or skirt US primary and secondary sanctions against Iran, he said. Rafizadeh said Iran’s hard-liners were attempting to obtain concessions from the EU by threatening to pull out of the JCPOA.

“But from the perspective of the Iranian leaders, giving concessions means weakness. And although Iran is playing tough, it needs the deal to support Bashar Assad and its proxies.

“The European governments should be aware that the Iranian leaders — moderates and hard-liners — are playing a shrewd tactical game.

“The regime is playing a classic ‘good cop, bad cop’ game. The moderates set the tone on the international stage through their shrewd diplomatic skills and softer tone, while the hard-liners take a tougher stance to help the moderates win more concessions,” said Rafizadeh.

Oubai Shahbandar, a Syrian-American analyst and fellow at the New America Foundation’s International Security Program, said the noose was tightening on Tehran.

“European firms simply cannot afford the penalties imposed by US secondary sanctions on Iran. The Iranian plan to press Europe to compensate for President Trump’s policy decision to restart a crippling sanctions regime is unlikely to prove fruitful,” he told Arab News.

Recent revelations of a covert Iranian facility designed to develop long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles that can be fitted with nuclear warheads will only complicate matters for Tehran as it scrambles for a European lifeline, Shahbandar said.

“The collapse of the JCPOA is likely to prove a major shock to the Iranian economy in the long run,” he said.


Deal with Iran ‘Unimaginable,’ Pompeo tells WGS in Dubai

Updated 4 sec ago
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Deal with Iran ‘Unimaginable,’ Pompeo tells WGS in Dubai

  • UAE’s Gargash says he would like to see direct US negotiations with Tehran

DUBAI: Former US secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, told the World Government Summit in Dubai on Monday that he believed a deal between Iran and the United States was “unimaginable” under the current Ayatollah regime believing US strikes on the nation were still a possibility despite the apparent deescalation of the last few days.

“It's unimaginable that there could be a deal. To me, we've had a deal with Iranians multiple times,” he told a panel in Dubai on Tuesday.

“They have cheated and lied and avoided compliance with every deal they've signed.”

Pompeo was central to the US decision to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal when he served as secretary during Donald Trumps first term. According to the US department of Justice, the Islamic Republic subsequently placed a $1 million bounty on his head.

Trump has in previous days said the US was seeking to srike a deal with Iran whilst simultanously ordering a large scale militray build up in the region. Pompeo said that he believed the US president could use military strikes – or at least the threat of them – to increase leverage on the regime to give up its enrichment and missiles fully, although he remained cynical of anything being achieved without regime change. 

“To think that there's a long-term solution that actually provides stability and peace to this region while the Ayatollah was still in power, is something I pray for, but find unimaginable,” Pompeo said.

On Syria, Pompeo expressed cautious optimism that the interim president Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa will succeed in rebuilding his country with a lasting peace.

Al-Sharaa has previously said he was focused on consolidating power, rebuilding state institutions, integrating military factions, and restoring Syria's international relations, including with the United States, Russia, and regional powers.

Pompeo said he maintained a level of mistrust in the Syrian president – most notably due to his involvement with Al-Qaeda - but added that he hoped Al-Sharaa would do well.

 “I have known of Mr. Sharaa for a long time, when I was a CIA director… we had a $10m bounty on his head. He was an Al Qaeda terrorist,” he said.

“It is important for the region to get stability in Syria and so I am rooting for him…. I hope we all do our part to help him be more successful at bringing a very fractured nation back together so that.”

He said he hoped the up to seven million people who had fled the country as refugees could one day return to their homes.

“But it is a very difficult task for anyone and someone with the history that he has, I think it makes it even more complicated for him to be successful. But he’s the leader today and we all should hope that he is able to pull off what It is he has stated his intentions are.”

Pompeo was joined on stage by former UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Anwar Gargash, who was more hopeful of a diplomatic solution to the Iranian crisis; saying the region stood firm against escalation and further prolonged military conflict.

Gargash believed that it was in the best interest of Iran to strike a deal with the US that would open the pathway to it resolving its multitude of crises.

“I think that the region has gone through various various calamitous confrontations. I don't think we need another one,” he told the summit.

“I would like to see direct Iranian American negotiations leading to understandings so that we don't have these issues every other day.”

Speaking more broadly on regional security, Gargash said resolving the Palestinian issue was still of utmost importance if the middle east was to secure a prosperous future. He said that the UAE was commiitted to seeing through the Trumps plan but ruled out rumours that the emirates was poised to take over governance of the territory.

“We have to work with the Palestinians. We have to work with the Egyptians, the Israelis, the Jordanians, and of course, American leadership is key, really, for achieving a sort of, I won't say, sustainable solution at this time, but moving on with with the part two of President Trump's plan,” he said.

On the international stage, Gargash said he bvelived the health of the China-US relationship was the biggest hinderence to peace – warning that if not managed properly it would likely lead to increasing comflict around the world. He said it was paramount that the two countries maintained a mature relationship based on competition.