UNITED NATIONS, New York: The UN special envoy to Syria warned Wednesday that a regime assault on the northern rebel-held area of Idlib would be “six times” more destructive than the battle to recapture Ghouta, which fell last month after years of siege.
“If we see a Ghouta scenario in Idlib, this could be six times worse, affecting 2.3 million people,” Staffan de Mistura told the UN Security Council’s monthly meeting on the Syria conflict.
De Mistura described what he called the classic Syrian regime tactic of a bombardment of a rebel territory followed by negotiations and then mass evacuations from the defeated area.
But the special envoy noted that half of the people in the northern rebel province of Idlib had already fled from other parts of Syria, “and will have nowhere else to go because there is no other place to go.”
Regime forces recaptured Ghouta from rebels last month after a ferocious offensive that displaced tens of thousands, both to government-controlled zones around Damascus and to opposition-held parts of northern Syria.
Nevertheless de Mistura said he was “encouraged” by talks earlier this week in the Kazakh capital Astana on “how to avoid worst-case scenario in Idlib.”
The latest round of peace talks, which wrapped up on Tuesday, did not however make any concrete progress toward ending the seven-year conflict that has cost 350,000 lives.
The high-level talks ended merely with a declaration by the three main guarantor nations of Russia and Iran — both of which are allies of the Damascus regime — and Turkey, which backs rebel groups, that negotiations would resume in July in the Russian city of Sochi, but rebel groups said they would not attend.
Since the Astana negotiations began at the beginning of last year, they have mostly focused on attempts to keep Syrian regime forces and their rebel opponents at arm’s length.
Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyanski, said that the solution to the Syria conflict was “simple: restore the sovereignty of Damascus over its territories.”
“If you cannot or will not help solve the problem, at least do not stand in our way!” he said in a statement directed at the United States, which did not send a delegation to the latest Astana talks.
Shortly before the UN meeting, the Dutch ambassador Karel Van Oosterom told reporters that the main obstacle to resolving the conflict was that “the Syrian government is not engaging.”
He said that was the message that De Mistura himself had made during a recent meeting of the council.
UN warns Idlib assault by Syrian regime could be “six times worse” than Ghouta
UN warns Idlib assault by Syrian regime could be “six times worse” than Ghouta
The Iran war has upended flights across the Middle East. Here’s what travelers should know
- Passengers have already reported seeing sky-high ticket prices
NEW YORK: The US and Israel’s joint war in Iran has already upended travel across the Middle East, stranding tens of thousands of people. And the future is anything but certain.
Experts stress that flights scheduled in the coming days and weeks could continue to see disruptions — causing ripple effects globally, especially as the war widens with retaliatory strikes in the Gulf states. Beyond the Middle East, airports in the Gulf serve as critical hubs connecting travelers going to Europe, Africa and Asia.
Amid airspace closures across the region, many carriers have been forced to either cancel flights or shift to longer routes. That’s straining operating costs and ticket prices, both of which could become more expensive if airlines have to pay more for fuel the longer the war drags on. In the near future, experts recommend postponing unnecessary travel if possible, checking refund or insurance policies and, most importantly, monitoring safety adviseries.
“This is not a normal delay story. This is a conflict zone airspace story,” said Hassan Shahidi, president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation — stressing that halted traffic and guidance from carriers, airports and governments may shift each day, if not by the hour. “Travelers should absolutely expect uncertainty.”
Here’s what travelers should know about upcoming trips.
Monitor adviseries and other safety information
Since the US and Israel launched attacks over the weekend, retaliatory strikes and other developments have unfolded rapidly. Iran says hundreds of people have been killed in the country. For travelers across the region, experts stress the importance of following safety guidance and updates from government officials.
A handful of governments have also issued travel adviseries and emergency evacuation orders. The US State Department on Monday urged all US citizens to immediately leave Iran and Israel, as well as Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen using any available commercial transportation — and Secretary of State Marco Rubio pleaded for the media to publicize ways to help Americans evacuate. Meanwhile, countries like China, Italy, France and Germany moved to organize evacuation efforts for their citizens.
Experts like Shahidi say travelers should monitor these travel adviseries from governments and embassies to make sure they have the latest information. And because so many people are still stranded amid swaths of cancelations and airspace closures, he added that it’s wise to reconsider or rebook upcoming trips, if possible.
“If travel is optional, consider postponing it,” Shahidi said. “But if it’s necessary, then make sure that you get refundable or changeable fares.”
Travelers should also monitor updates from airports and airlines. Long-haul carriers Etihad Airways and Emirates, based in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, along with Doha-based Qatar Airways all temporarily suspended certain routes — citing airspace closures and safety requirements.
Read the fine print of refunds and insurance
Many airlines are taking refund requests or offering free rebooking — but such options are often limited to specific dates or routes, so it’s important for travelers to check carriers’ individual websites for more information. For future trips, buying refundable tickets now may provide more flexibility.
Beyond what individual airlines can offer, some may also be seeking travel insurance. But it’s important to read the fine print, particularly the exclusions listed under specific policies.
“Acts of war and civil unrest are typically excluded because they’re unpredictable,” said Suzanne Morrow, CEO of travel insurance agency InsureMyTrip. Consumers could still buy coverage for delays, she added, but travel insurance is “designed to make you whole,” and if an airline does everything to rebook you or offers a refund, you may not have an added claim.
Christina Tunnah, of World Nomads Travel Insurance, reiterates that the majority of her firm’s policies excludes coverage for losses resulting from acts of war, although someone might be able to get compensation in certain scenarios — such as if they purchase a “cancel for any reason” plan. Still, the traveler would have to cancel within a certain time frame.
Tunnah adds that once an event is known, it’s unlikely to be covered. So if a consumer has not already purchased traveler insurance, many insurers may have added restrictions to impacted destinations.
Brace for longer flights and higher ticket prices
Beyond cancelations, many carriers are now taking longer routes to avoid closed airspace. Shahidi noted that includes not only closures stemming from this current war but also previous conflicts worldwide.
Navigating these different conflict zones has become increasingly difficult for airlines, because longer routes can be more expensive. It’s industry standard for carriers to pay “overflight fees” when flying through other countries’ airspace — which there could be more of now. And, of course, longer flights need more fuel.
“Those costs will be passed on to the passengers,” explained Bryan Terry, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy. If the conflict continues, he said, travelers should “anticipate that some carriers will likely impose fuel surcharges” or increase existing fees.
Passengers have already reported seeing sky-high ticket prices. Experts say those immediate hikes more likely reflect supply and demand as thousands of flights were canceled in recent days. But the costs of those longer routes — paired with oil prices that have already spiked since the US and Israel launched their attacks — could trickle down to consumers further ahead.
The price of crude oil is a key component for jet fuel, which accounted for about 30 percent of airlines’ operating costs as of 2024, according to research from the International Air Transport Association.
Many routes within the next week are completely sold out or have exorbitant prices for last remaining seats. The market currently shows those costs, while still elevated, are lower for trips booked further out, Terry notes — but, again, if the war drags on or worsens, “those conditions could change at a moment’s notice.”
