NEW YORK: The potential deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia — announced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — is a game-changer in the global energy industry.
But it faces hurdles before it can be implemented and maintained according to the ambitious schedule outlined in New York.
Daniel Yergin, an energy expert and author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning history of oil “The Prize,” told Arab News that the possible deal “represents a realignment that reflects the new realities of oil and international relations.”
The crown prince said that the Kingdom and Russia were in talks to extend an agreement on output — sealed in Vienna in late 2016 on a temporary basis — to a longer-term pact of 10 to 20 years.
“We are working to shift from year-to-year agreement to a 10 to 20-year agreement. We have agreement on the big picture, but not yet on the detail,” the crown prince said.
If the deal goes through, it will put in place a new force in the global oil industry, with two of the top three producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, acting in unison. With around 40 percent of the world’s output between the two producers and the rest of OPEC, the alliance would be a dominant force in the energy industry, able to control supply and — crucially — the price of oil for the next two decades.
But it is by no means a done deal. Ellen Wald, an expert on Saudi energy and author of the forthcoming book “Saudi Inc. The Arabian Kingdom’s Pursuit of Profit and Power,” said: “It would be impossible to extend the current production deal for 10 to 20 years because nobody knows what market conditions will be in the future.”
“What they must be referring to is a discussion on making Russia what amounts to a de facto OPEC member for a certain number of years,” she added.
But there are economic, financial and geopolitical challenges ahead before such a deal — likely to form the centerpiece of negotiations at the next OPEC meeting in Vienna in June — can be clinched.
The current arrangement — dubbed the “Vienna Alliance” by oil experts — has been credited with getting the price of crude back from the doldrums of 2014 and 2015. From a high of more than $100 a barrel after the global financial crisis, the price of a barrel of crude fell below $30 in early 2016.
The agreement on output helped stabilize that price last year, with a sustained recovery coming in the second half of the year as it looked as though the deal was going to hold longer than a few months. Brent crude was trading in New York yesterday close to the $70 a barrel level seen as the “Goldilocks” level — not too cheap and not too expensive — to balance the demands of global producers and consumers.
But the problem is that OPEC is not a cartel that can arbitrarily set the price of oil. It is an organization that has to serve the interests of its members, and the 14 nations — possibly increasing with the inclusion of Russia and other independent producers — that comprise OPEC are subject to the imperatives of their own domestic economic needs as well as the global market.
It has been an achievement — largely credited to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih — to get OPEC and Russian to coordinate supplies over the past 12 months. Maintaining that delicate relationship over decades would be much more difficult.
With global consumption just below 10 million barrels a day, it would only require one member to “go rogue” with a production surge to upset the delicate balance and cause another price collapse.
But perhaps the most serious barrier to any long-term deal is the fact that the global oil market is no longer a two-horse race. American shale producers have turned the international energy market on its head through sophisticated technology that has wrung oil from fields long regarded as impossible to exploit commercially.
The US is now the second largest oil producer, and with the shale industry in full boom, looks certain to overtake Russia and the world’s biggest sometime soon.
This is where the geopolitical challenge emerges. One American energy financier at the Saudi-US CEO Forum in New York explained: “It might be good for Saudi Arabia and the oil price, but it is a strategic play that might not go down well with American producers. It would add a long-term geopolitical element to the oil market that maybe we would not welcome.”
He also pointed to the difficulties of maintaining such a long-term relationship between OPEC and Russia. “There are so many variables. It is not just Saudi Arabia, but all the members of OPEC, which is a mixed bag. Is it in the interests of Venezuela or Iraq to go along with such a deal? And you cannot easily predict how Russia will be thinking in 10 weeks from now, let alone 10 years.”
Yergin said: “We’ve been calling this OPEC and non-OPEC agreement the ‘Vienna Alliance’. Now it looks like an effort to turn it into a lasting alliance.”
Challenges ahead as KSA looks to long-term OPEC-Russia oil deal
Challenges ahead as KSA looks to long-term OPEC-Russia oil deal
National program identifies 165 native plants for afforestation efforts in Asir
- The survey is part of broader plans focused on restoring degraded land, using native vegetation
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s National Afforestation Program has identified more than 165 species of native plants suitable for afforestation in the Asir region, highlighting the ecological diversity of one of the Kingdom’s most environmentally varied areas, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
The findings form part of broader national efforts to expand vegetation cover, address land degradation, and support sustainability goals linked to the Saudi Green Initiative and Vision 2030.
According to the program, the identified species are distributed across a wide range of natural environments in Asir, including mountainous terrain, highlands, slopes, valleys, plains, rocky landscapes, and coastal areas stretching from the Red Sea to Tihama.
The species belong to numerous plant families, including Fabaceae, Anacardiaceae, Burseraceae, Capparaceae, Ebenaceae, Euphorbiaceae, Malvaceae, Myrtaceae, Oleaceae, and Primulaceae, among others.
Plants suitable for afforestation range from large and small trees to perennial and annual shrubs, herbs, succulents, bulbs, and climbing plants.
Among the most notable species identified are the grey mangrove, mastic tree, mooring or ben tree, juniper, sycamore fig, wild olive, henna, wild jasmine, hawthorn, and arak.
The Saudi Arabian Botanical Society described the announcement as an important step in protecting plant diversity and strengthening the ecosystem conservation in the Kingdom.
Munirah bin Hamad Al-Hazani, founder and president of the society, said that prioritizing native species is central to sustainable afforestation.
“Focusing on the cultivation of native plants adapted to diverse environments forms the cornerstone of sustainable afforestation projects, as it plays a pivotal role in enhancing vegetation cover, combating land degradation, and conserving natural and financial resources,” she told Arab News.
Al-Hazani added that long-term success depends on cooperation between government bodies and the nonprofit sector, alongside community involvement and environmental awareness programs.
The National Afforestation Program has increasingly emphasized community participation, working with government agencies, private companies, and nonprofit organizations to support planting initiatives and environmental education. Its approach includes promoting volunteerism and discouraging harmful environmental practices, while focusing on the use of native plants adapted to local conditions.
Parallel efforts are underway in other regions of the Kingdom to support vegetation restoration through research and infrastructure development. In Jouf, often referred to as the Kingdom’s food basket, the King Salman bin Abdulaziz Royal Reserve Development Authority has established a Central Nursery and a Wild Seeds Research and Production Station to address the growing demand for reliable sources of native seeds and seedlings.
The project was launched in 2023 under the directive of Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Naif, the minister of interior and chairman of the authority’s board of directors.
Since then, the facilities has become a key component of vegetation restoration efforts within the reserve.
The authority has focused on building operational capacity by recruiting and training specialists to manage cultivation and research activities. The research and production station includes 14 mother-seed production fields containing over 400,000 trees and shrubs.
Planting began in late 2024, with more than 30 native plant species represented, selected for their role in the reserve’s natural ecosystem.
The facility also includes two seed storage units with a combined capacity of 3,000 kilograms. Seeds are collected annually from multiple sites within the reserve and used for seedling production habitat rehabilitation.
The Central Nursery spans 6,000 square meters and includes 30 greenhouses spanning 1,500 square meters, as well as two shade houses used during summer months. A plant hardening facility, designed to prepare seedlings for natural environmental conditions, covers 10,000 square meters and is divided into seven sections. The nursery’s annual production capacity reaches 1.5 million seedlings, representing more than 15 native plant species.
Together, these initiatives underscore the growing role of native plant research and propagation in Saudi Arabia’s afforestation strategy, particularly as the Kingdom works to balance environmental restoration with long-term sustainability goals.
