BANGALORE: First, let the numbers sink in. Since December 2014, Steve Smith — who will lead Australia against South Africa in a four-Test series that begins in Durban on Thursday — averages 79.33 across 39 Tests. There have been 19 centuries — as many as Mark Taylor, one of his predecessors, made in 104 matches — and 15 other scores in excess of 50.
Those figures indicate why the visitors, who have not lost a series in South Africa since 1970, are marginal favorites. There will be some great batsmen on view at Kingsmead, but for the moment, Smith operates on another plane.
If South Africa do want to clutch at straws, they can look at his record in conditions when the ball has moved extravagantly off the seam. In the 2015 Ashes, sandwiched between scores of 215 at Lord’s and 143 at The Oval, he made seven and eight at Edgbaston and six and five at Trent Bridge. Australia were routed in both Tests, and lost the Ashes. Then, under lights in Adelaide last December, he made 40 and six against the pink ball.
Unfortunately for South Africa, the ball used in Durban will be red, and the pitch is likely to be on the slow side. On his last trip across the breadth of the Indian Ocean four years ago, Smith scored 269 runs in three Tests at 67.25. South Africa will need to restrict him to below 300 runs if they are to stand any chance of reversing what is one of the more mystifying home jinxes in cricket.
Having tonked England 4-0 in the Ashes, Australia keep faith with the same XI that won in Sydney in early January. That means another opportunity to impress for Cameron Bancroft, the opener whose Ashes went steadily south after a half-century in Brisbane.
The Marsh brothers, Shaun and Mitchell, had stellar Ashes campaigns, and Shaun, the older of the two, will doubtless recall that it was his 148 at Centurion four years ago that set Australia on their way to another series win on South African soil.
But it is the bowling that South Africa will be most wary of. Having lost 60 wickets to an Indian attack spearheaded by Mohammed Shami and Bhuvneshwar Kumar, they now face Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins. Nathan Lyon, after years of not being afforded respect because he was not Shane Warne, is now one of the game’s premier spinners and will fancy his chances of doing to South Africa what Harbhajan Singh, Graeme Swann and Rangana Herath have in Durban Tests over the past decade.
Against India, South Africa went in with five specialist batsmen. By the end of the third Test, Quinton de Kock, the wicketkeeper batting at No. 6, was edging everything he faced. It would be a huge surprise if they persisted with the same team composition, and Smith said as much at his pre-match press conference.
“If they have the same line-up as the India Test matches, I think it’s a very long tail,” he said. “If you can get some early wickets and get into the middle order quickly, you might be able to go through them.”
Faf du Plessis, the Proteas’ captain, has recovered from the broken finger that kept him out for all but one white-ball game against the Indians, and it will be a toss-up between Theunis de Bruyn, the Titans batsman, and Wiaan Mulder, the Lions all-rounder, as to who is drafted in to bolster the middle order. On what is likely to be a sluggish pitch, Keshav Maharaj, the left-arm spinner, will certainly get his chance.
If only three pace bowlers play, then Lungi Ngidi, sensational on his debut against India in January, will drop to the bench. Kagiso Rabada will share the new ball with Vernon Philander, with Morne Morkel — playing his last international series — as first change.
“He’s been a great team man for the last 10 to 12 years,” said du Plessis of Morkel. “He will be missed, but he has his family to look after. He’ll be difficult to replace, but the good thing is that we have Lungi Ngidi coming through.”
Morkel, who has 294 Test wickets, is 33, like his captain. AB de Villiers is 34, and Hashim Amla turns 35 before the end of this series. Dale Steyn, who misses the Kingsmead game after the foot injury he suffered against India, is 34. For a golden generation of Proteas, who were instrumental in three straight series victories in Australia, this is one last chance to change that bizarre home record. To do it, however, they will have to get past the indomitable Smith.