SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Tuesday, lifted by healthy economic growth as well as the ongoing supply restraint by a group of exporters around OPEC and Russia.
Spot Brent crude futures were at $69.41 at 0409 GMT, up 38 cents, or 0.55 percent, from their last close, not far off the January 15 three-year high of $70.37 a barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.99 a barrel, up 42 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last settlement. WTI hit its highest since December 2014 on January 16 at $64.89 a barrel.
Traders said oil markets were generally well supported by healthy economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday revised upward its forecast for world economic growth in 2018 and 2019, to 3.9 percent for both 2018 and 2019, a 0.2 percentage point increase from its last update in October.
The “economic outlook and seasonally colder weather has led to firmer oil demand growth, facilitating the continuation of a fall in oil inventories toward OPEC’s recent five-year average target,” BNP Paribas said in a note.
This growth, which is also translating into more oil consumption, comes at a time of supply curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, which began in January last year and are set to hold throughout 2018.
“The outlook for 2018 is roughly balanced for most of the year, but inventories are set to rise in Q4’18,” the French bank said, adding that it has hiked its 2018 oil price forecasts by $10 a barrel and expects WTI to average $60 a barrel and Brent $65.
But there have also been signs of a possible crude oil downward price correction.
Crumbling refinery profits, first in Asia and now also in Europe and the United States, as a result of rising feedstock prices and plentifully available fuel products, point to lower crude orders going forward.
In the longer term, investors are preparing for large-scale changes in oil demand coming from the rise of electric vehicles.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said this week in a note to investors that “we see peak oil demand by 2030 on electric vehicles ... Electric vehicles will have replaced conventional (vehicles) by 2050.”
The bank also said that “when gasoline demand peaks by 2025 (and total oil by 2030), refinery utilization rates may decline permanently and refining margins suffer heavily.”
Oil rises on IMF economic growth outlook, OPEC-Russia supply cuts
Oil rises on IMF economic growth outlook, OPEC-Russia supply cuts
US imposes preliminary 126% tariffs on solar imports from India
RIYADH: The administration of US President Donald Trump has imposed preliminary tariffs of up to 146 percent on solar panels imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos, after concluding that these countries provided unfair support to their manufacturing sectors.
The move is expected to benefit US producers, but in turn, could raise costs for consumers, according to Bloomberg.
The US Department of Commerce said on Feb. 24 that the tariff rates reflect the level of support provided, at 126 percent on imports from India, between 86 percent and 143 percent on Indonesia, and 81 percent on Laos.
The US claims that this support allows foreign producers to sell their exports in the US market at prices below production costs, harming the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers.
While these tariffs are expected to favor domestic manufacturers, they will negatively affect US renewable energy project developers, who have long relied on low-cost foreign supplies, exacerbating uncertainty in a sector already influenced by fluctuating policies and regulatory decisions in Washington.
A different customs path for solar tariffs
These duties are separate from the broader global tariffs previously imposed by Trump, which the US Supreme Court overturned last week. Following the ruling, Trump introduced new tariffs of 10 percent, with a warning that they could rise to 15 percent.
Earlier this month, the president reached a bilateral trade agreement with India aimed at easing economic tensions between the two countries.
According to Bloomberg NEF data, India, Indonesia, and Laos accounted for 57 percent of US solar panel imports in the first half of 2025, with some project developers shifting to importing panels from these countries after Washington imposed high tariffs on four Southeast Asian countries that had once represented the largest share of imports.
Pressure on Indian manufacturers
Vikram Bagri, an analyst at Citi, wrote in a research note on Feb. 24 that the relatively high tariff levels will make the US market almost closed to solar panel manufacturers in India.
The US solar industry group, the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, had requested the Department of Commerce to open an investigation into the support, arguing that the step was necessary to protect the domestic industry.
Tim Brightbill, co-chair of the international trade practice at Wiley Rein and the alliance’s lead attorney, said: “The results announced today represent a pivotal step toward restoring fair competition in the US solar market.”
He added: “US manufacturers are investing billions of dollars to rebuild production capacity domestically and create well-paying jobs. These investments cannot succeed if unfairly traded imports continue to distort the market.”
The Department of Commerce is expected to issue a final decision on the investigation on July 6, while a parallel probe is underway to impose anti-dumping duties on solar cell imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos.
