LONDON: Global oil markets are tightening quickly on falling supply from Venezuela, which posted 2017’s biggest unplanned output fall and could see a further decline in 2018, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
Debt and infrastructure problems cut Venezuela’s December output to 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd), somewhere near a 30-year low. That helped oil prices top $70 per barrel in early January, their highest level in 3 years.
“The general perception that the market has been tightening is clearly the overriding factor and, within this overall picture, there is mounting concern about Venezuela’s production,” the IEA, which coordinates energy policy in industrialized nations, said in its monthly report.
“Given Venezuela’s astonishing debt and deteriorating oil network, it is possible that declines this year will be even steeper... US financial sanctions are also making it tougher for Venezuela’s oil sector to operate,” the IEA said.
As a result of lower Venezuelan production, the IEA said OPEC’s crude output in December fell to 32.23 million bpd, boosting the group’s compliance with a deal to curb output to 129 percent.
In addition to Venezuela, December saw production problems in the North Sea, which helped cut global December oil supply to 97.7 million bpd, down 405,000 bpd from November.
Commercial stocks in industrialized countries declined for the fourth consecutive month in November and likely fell again in December, the IEA said.
OPEC agreed to lower production in 2017 and has agreed to maintain output cuts for the whole of 2018 to help bring the those stocks down to a 5-year average.
The IEA said that if OPEC and its non-OPEC allies maintained good compliance with the output deal, oil markets would balance in 2018.
“Global crude oil markets saw an exceptionally tight 4Q17,” the IEA said, adding that it saw a combined fall of 1 million bpd during that period on declining stocks in industrialized nations and a fall in Chinese balances.
The recovery in oil prices and a decline in global oil stocks has been helped by robust global demand growth in 2017 but it will slow down in 2018, the IEA said.
It kept its oil demand growth estimate for 2018 unchanged at 1.3 million bpd, down from 1.6 million bpd in 2017, mainly due to the impact of higher oil prices and changing patterns of oil use in China.
Besides slowing demand, a spectacular rise in US output is expected to keep oil prices under pressure, the IEA said.
The IEA said that rapid US growth and gains in Canada and Brazil will drive up non-OPEC supply by 1.7 million bpd in 2018, versus last year’s 0.7 million bpd increase. Non-OPEC nations will be producing just short of 60 million bpd this year.
“US crude supply will push past 10 million bpd, overtaking Saudi Arabia and rivaling Russia,” the IEA said.
The IEA said short-cycle US production was reacting to rising oil prices and therefore it raised its forecast for US crude oil growth for 2018 to 1.1 million bpd from 870,000 bpd in its previous report.
“This represents, after the downturn in 2016 and the steady recovery in 2017, a return to the heady days of 2013-2015 when US-led growth averaged 1.9 million bpd,” the IEA said.
Oil markets tightening as Venezuelan output collapses, IEA says
Oil markets tightening as Venezuelan output collapses, IEA says
How AI and financial literacy are redefining the Saudi workforce
- Preparing people capable of navigating money and machines with confidence
ALKHOBAR: Saudi Arabia’s workforce is entering a transformative phase where digital fluency meets financial empowerment.
As Vision 2030 drives economic diversification, experts emphasize that the Kingdom’s most valuable asset is not just technology—but people capable of navigating both money and machines with confidence.
For Shereen Tawfiq, co-founder and CEO of Balinca, financial literacy is far from a soft skill. It is a cornerstone of national growth. Her company trains individuals and organizations through gamified simulations that teach financial logic, risk assessment, and strategic decision-making—skills she calls “the true language of empowerment.”
“Our projection builds on the untapped potential of Saudi women as entrepreneurs and investors,” she said. “If even 10–15 percent of women-led SMEs evolve into growth ventures over the next five years, this could inject $50–$70 billion into GDP through new job creation, capital flows, and innovation.”
Tawfiq, one of the first Saudi women to work in banking and later an adviser to the Ministry of Economy and Planning on private sector development, helped design early frameworks for the Kingdom’s venture-capital ecosystem—a transformation she describes as “a national case study in ambition.”
“Back in 2015, I proposed a 15-year roadmap to build the PE and VC market,” she recalled. “The minister told me, ‘you’re not ambitious enough, make it happen in five.’” Within years, Saudi Arabia had a thriving investment ecosystem supporting startups and non-oil growth.
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At Balinca, Tawfiq replaces theory with immersion. Participants make business decisions in interactive simulations and immediately see their financial impact.
“Balinca teaches finance by hacking the brain, not just feeding information,” she said. “Our simulations create what we call a ‘business gut feeling’—an intuitive grasp of finance that traditional training or even AI platforms can’t replicate.”
While AI can personalize lessons, she believes behavioral learning still requires human experience.
“AI can democratize access,” she said, “but judgment, ethics, and financial reasoning still depend on people. We train learners to use AI as a co-pilot, not a crutch.”
Her work aligns with a broader national agenda. The Financial Sector Development Program and Al Tamayyuz Academy are part of Vision 2030’s effort to elevate financial acumen across industries. “In Saudi Arabia, financial literacy is a national project,” she said. “When every sector thinks like a business, the nation gains stability.”
Jonathan Holmes, managing director for Korn Ferry Middle East, sees Saudi Arabia’s digital transformation producing a new generation of leaders—agile, data-literate, and unafraid of disruption.
“What we’re seeing in the Saudi market is that AI is tied directly to the nation’s economic growth story,” Holmes told Arab News. “Unlike in many Western markets where AI is viewed as a threat, here it’s seen as a catalyst for progress.”
Holmes noted that Vision 2030 and the national AI strategy are producing “younger, more dynamic, and more tech-fluent” executives who lead with speed and adaptability. Korn Ferry’s CEO Tracker Report highlighted a notable rise in first-time CEO appointments in Saudi Arabia’s listed firms, signaling deliberate generational renewal.
Korn Ferry research identifies six traits for AI-ready leadership: sustaining vision, decisive action, scaling for impact, continuous learning, addressing fear, and pushing beyond early success.
“Leading in an AI-driven world is ultimately about leading people,” Holmes said. “The most effective leaders create clarity amid ambiguity and show that AI’s true power lies in partnership, not replacement.”
He believes Saudi Arabia’s young workforce is uniquely positioned to model that balance. “The organizations that succeed are those that anchor AI initiatives to business outcomes, invest in upskiling, and move quickly from pilots to enterprise-wide adoption,” he added.
DID YOU KNOW?
• Saudi women-led SMEs could add $50–$70 billion to GDP over five years if 10–15% evolve into growth ventures.
• AI in Saudi Arabia is seen as a catalyst for progress, unlike in many Western markets where it is often viewed as a threat.
• Saudi Arabia is adopting skills-based models, matching employees to projects rather than fixed roles, making flexibility the new currency of success.
The convergence of Tawfiq’s financial empowerment approach and Holmes’s AI leadership vision points to one central truth: the Kingdom’s greatest strategic advantage lies in human capital that can think analytically and act ethically.
“Financial literacy builds confidence and credibility,” Tawfiq said. “It transforms participants from operators into leaders.” Holmes echoes this sentiment: “Technical skills matter, but the ability to learn, unlearn, and scale impact is what defines true readiness.”
As organizations adopt skills-based models that match employees to projects rather than fixed job titles, flexibility is becoming the new currency of success. Saudi Arabia’s workforce revolution is as much cultural as it is technological, proving that progress moves fastest when inclusion and innovation advance together.
Holmes sees this as the Kingdom’s defining opportunity. “Saudi Arabia can lead global workforce transformation by showing how technology and people thrive together,” he said.
Tawfiq applies the same principle to finance. “Financial confidence grows from dialogue,” she said. “The more women talk about money, valuations, and investment, the more they’ll see themselves as decision-makers shaping the economy.”
Together, their visions outline a future where leaders are inclusive, data-literate, and AI-confident—a model that may soon define the global standard for workforce transformation under Vision 2030.
