LONDON: It is that time of year when the Gulf’s plethora of real estate pundits look into their crystal balls to see what the future might hold.
Last year was a particularly difficult for the region as it contended with weak oil prices, political tensions and volatile investor sentiment. The introduction of value-added tax in Saudi Arabia and the UAE from 2018 will inject yet more short-term uncertainty into the market, some commentators have said.
However, as the global price of crude picks up, the economic growth prospects of the region’s oil-exporting countries are projected to improve in 2018.
The latest IMF forecast for 2018 expects Gulf gross domestic product (GDP) growth to rebound to 3.3 percent, largely driven by a turnaround in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
But whether this new economic confidence filters into the real estate market remains to be seen — with further declines forecast in the UAE’s two main property markets, Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Arab News takes a look at how the two markets are looking this year.
Dubai: A mixed bag with hopes of a “bottoming out” in 2018
According to a report by property consultancy Cluttons, the three years up until winter 2017 were “very challenging” for Dubai’s residential market, with capital values dropping by 16.6 percent. Residential values were estimated to end 2017 down 5 to 7 percent on 2016 numbers, the consultancy said.
“The introduction of Federal Mortgage Caps and the collapse in oil prices during 2014 have been key catalysts in shaping the market over the last 36 months, alongside the deteriorating global geopolitical backdrop, which also spooked investors,” Cluttons said in a report.
Around 40,000 more residential units will be completed in Dubai in 2018, according to the Property Monitor Supply Tracker. This may put further pressure on rent and sales prices, in particular the secondary market, analysts have said.
According to Cluttons, 2018 still has the potential for values to start “bottoming out” in the second half of the year, but much will depend on the yet-to-materialize “Expo 2020 effect,” the strength of the US dollar and a slowing in both the rate of delivery and type of new residential schemes announced, with “affordable” housing being key to helping the market stabilize.
“On balance, we expect values to decline by an average of 3 percent to 5 percent (in 2018),” Cluttons said. “The rental market is expected to mirror the performance of capital values in 2018.”
According to Cluttons, low-end apartments and villas encompassing the city’s most affordable locations such as International City, IMPZ, Discovery Gardens, Jumeirah, Sports City and JLT, collectively registered no change in average rents in the third quarter of 2017, highlighting “the potential depth of demand for more affordable rental accommodation going into 2018.”
Syed Wajih, a property consultant at Better Homes Dubai, told Arab News: “This is a temporary dip and it’s the best time to buy. The prices are low because of the oil price, VAT uncertainty and uncertain sentiment, but there is a lot of movement now because of the low prices.”
Abu Dhabi: Gloomy market with falling property prices
According to JLL, Abu Dhabi residential rents and sales prices dipped in the third quarter of 2017 as vacancies increased in response to subdued demand and increased supply. Rental demand has been negatively impacted by job losses and cuts in housing allowances while suppressed sentiment has resulted in fewer sale transactions, the consultancy said.
JLL said apartment rents declined by around 13 percent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter due to the “continued increase in vacancy rates, resulting new supply completions during a period of job losses and cuts in housing allowances.”
Residential vacancies are expected to increase further in 2018, causing further rental declines, the property firm predicted.
Residential prices have also continued to fall, with average prices for prime villas declining 8 percent in the third quarter, down 13 percent year-on-year, said JLL.
“Declining sentiment and reduced transaction volumes have driven these falls with average prices expected to decline further during 2018,” it said.
The latest Abu Dhabi property report from Cluttons noted: “Weaker economic growth has taken its toll on the hydrocarbon sector in particular, which has been a key driver of demand in the residential and commercial markets in the emirate historically.”
Cluttons added: “(2018) is likely to see rents slipping further, with newly completed buy-to-let stock becoming a particular challenge in some of the city’s newer neighborhoods.”
The firm predicts that Abu Dhabi rents are likely to drop by 5 percent to 7 percent in 2018, “unless there is a notable rebounding in economic growth.”
No New Year cheer for UAE property market
No New Year cheer for UAE property market
Meituan looks to hire in Saudi Arabia, indicating food delivery expansion
SHANGHAI: Chinese food delivery giant Meituan is seeking to hire staff for at least eight positions based in Riyadh, in a sign it may be looking to Saudi Arabia to further its global expansion ambitions, according to Reuters.
The jobs ads, which is hiring for KeeTa, the brand name Meituan uses for its food delivery operations in Hong Kong, is seeking candidates with expertise in business development, user acquisition, and customer retention, according to posts seen by Reuters on Linkedin and on Middle Eastern jobs site Bayt.com.
Meituan did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Reuters on its plans for Saudi expansion.
Bloomberg reported earlier on Friday that the Beijing-based firm would make its Middle East debut with Riyadh as the first stop.
Since expanding to Hong Kong in May 2023, Meituan’s first foray outside of mainland China, speculation has persisted that its overseas march would continue as the firm searches for growth opportunities, with the Middle East rumored since last year to be one area of possible expansion.
“We are actively evaluating opportunities in other markets,“ Meituan CEO Wang Xing said during a post-earnings call with analysts last month.
“We have the tech know-how and operational know-how, so we are quietly confident we can enter a new market and find an approach that works for consumers there.”
IMF opens first MENA office in Riyadh
RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has opened its first office the Middle East and North Africa region in Riyadh.
The office was launched during the Joint Regional Conference on Industrial Policy for Diversification, jointly organized by the IMF and the Ministry of Finance, on April 24.
The new office aims to strengthen capacity building, regional surveillance, and outreach to foster stability, growth, and regional integration, thereby promoting partnerships in the Middle East and beyond, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
Additionally, the office will facilitate closer collaboration between the IMF and regional institutions, governments, and other stakeholders, the SPA report noted, adding that the IMF expressed its appreciation to Saudi Arabia for its financial contribution aimed at enhancing capacity development in its member countries, including fragile states.
Abdoul Aziz Wane, a seasoned IMF director with an extensive understanding of the institution and a broad network of policymakers and academics worldwide, will serve as the first director of the Riyadh office.
Saudi minister to deliver keynote speech at Automechanika Riyadh conference
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Minister of Investment Transaction Saleh Al-Khabti is set to deliver the keynote speech at a global automotive aftermarket industry conference in Riyadh.
Set to be held from April 30 April to May 2 in the Saudi capital’s International Convention and Exhibition Center, Automechanika Riyadh will welcome more than 340 exhibitors from over 25 countries.
Al-Khabti will make the marquee address on the first day of the event, which will also see participation from Aftab Ahmed, chief advisor for the Automotive Cluster at the National Industrial Development Centre, Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources.
Saudi Arabia’s automotive sector is undergoing a transformation, with the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund becoming the major shareholder in US-based electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid, and also striking a deal with Hyundai to collaborate on the construction of a $500 million-manufacturing facility.
Alongside this, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched the Kingdom’s first electric vehicle brand in November 2022.
Commenting on the upcoming trade show, Bilal Al-Barmawi, CEO and founder of 1st Arabia Trade Shows & Conferences, said: “It is a great honor for Automechanika Riyadh to be held under the patronage of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Investment, and we’re grateful for their continued support as the event goes from strength-to-strength.
“The insights and support we’ve already received have been invaluable, and we look forward to continuing this relationship throughout the event and beyond.”
This edition of Automechanika Riyadh will feature seven product focus areas, including parts and components, tyres and batteries, and oils and lubricants.
Accessories and customizing, diagnostics and repairs, and body and paint will also be discussed, as well as care and wash.
Aly Hefny, show manager for Automechanika Riyadh, Messe Frankfurt Middle East, said: “The caliber of speakers confirmed to take part at Automechanika Riyadh is a testament to the event’s growth and prominence within the regional automotive market.
“We have developed a show that goes beyond the norm by providing a platform that supports knowledge sharing and networking while promoting the opportunity to engage with key industry experts and hear the latest developments, trends and innovations changing the dynamics of the automotive sector.”
Aramco-backed S-Oil expects Q2 refining margins to remain steady then trend upward
SEOUL: South Korea’s S-Oil forecast on Friday that second-quarter refining margins will be steady, supported by regular maintenance in the region, then trend upward in tandem with higher demand as the summer season gets underway, according to Reuters.
Over the January-March period, the refiner said it operated the crude distillation units at its 669,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in the southeastern city of Ulsan at 91.9 percent of capacity, compared with 94 percent in October-December.
S-Oil, whose main shareholder is Saudi Aramco, plans to shut its No. 1 crude distillation unit sometime this year for maintenance, the company said in an earnings presentation, without specifying the time.
Venture investments spark renaissance of Saudi innovation
RIYADH: In Saudi Arabia, a dynamic transformation is unfolding within the entrepreneurial landscape, powered by the robust growth of venture capital, which achieved an impressive 86 percent compound annual growth rate from 2019 to 2023.
This financial infusion has been a game-changer, propelling the Kingdom past the $1 billion mark in venture capital investment last year and igniting a wave of innovative thinking among Saudi entrepreneurs.
Simply put, VC is a category of private market investment and financing. A VC firm raises capital from investors, referred to as Limited Partners, and uses that capital to fund promising startups they have determined as likely to have high growth potential in an emerging category.
A vibrant scene
“The rise of venture capital in Saudi Arabia is fueling a vibrant entrepreneurial scene,” said the founder of Saudi-based VC firm Nama Ventures.
Offering a unique perspective on this financial phenomenon, Mohammed Al-Zubi shared his insights with Arab News about how venture capital is energizing the entrepreneurial scene in the Kingdom.
Al-Zubi described this financial influx as a vital nutrient, fostering a fertile ground for innovation and growth within the Kingdom.
Ripple effects
“Startups get crucial funding, expert guidance, and exit pathways, attracting and retaining ambitious talent. This creates a ripple effect — successful ventures generate high-quality jobs, attracting more skilled professionals and expertise,” Al-Zubi told Arab News.
However, he explained that challenges like limited seed funding and skill mismatch require more attention.
“By fostering a diverse ecosystem and addressing these gaps, Saudi Arabia can harness the power of VC to build a thriving and sustainable entrepreneurial powerhouse,” Al-Zubi added.
Echoing Al-Zubi’s remarks, Tariq bin Hendi, senior partner at Global Ventures, told Arab News that the Kingdom’s VC growth reflects its booming economy.
“Saudi Arabia is a large market with compelling macroeconomics and significant funding, which in turn is re-shaping the regional startup landscape,” Hendi said.
“Increased investment has helped start-ups to digitize, scale and accelerate their business operations — with many success stories: Tarabut, Zension, RedSea, Zid and Hakbah being among the most well-known,” Hendi added.
An innovative economy
Hendi emphasizes the crucial role of venture capital in the economic diversification of Saudi Arabia.
He notes that sectors like agritech, fintech, and cleantech are attracting significant investments, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals.
“The increase in investment saw Saudi Arabia secure MENA’s (Middle East and North Africa) highest VC funding in 2023, which is also aligned with the country’s Vision 2030 objectives,” he stated
“Venture capital’s investment in nascent technologies and innovative ventures allows for early-stage experimentation and for new start-ups to respond to analogue-based problems previously difficult to navigate through digitalization,” Hendi added.
According to him, this synergy between venture capital and startups not only drives technological progress but also offers insights into the regulatory landscape, promoting economic diversity and innovation within the region.
He also highlights the broader impact of venture capital, noting how it enables local businesses to scale and address global challenges, creating job opportunities and demonstrating the Kingdom’s potential in leading sustainable startup growth.
Moreover, Hendi points out that venture capital stimulates international collaboration, attracting global investors and reducing investment risks, further bolstering Saudi Arabia’s position as a dynamic hub for economic activity and innovation.
Furthermore, in his article “Venture Capital Fundamentals: Why VC Is A Driving Force Of Innovation,” Mark Flickinger, general partner and chief operating officer at US-based BIP Ventures, describes VC as a critical factor for economic innovation.
“VC is a rewarding form of private market investment that gives innovators a real chance to transform their ideas into businesses. It connects founders and investors, driving progress and successful outcomes for both,” Flickinger said.
“And for everyone who is part of this virtuous cycle of funding, building, and scaling market-changing businesses, VC is a way to support the impact of the innovation economy – which is the economy today,” he added.
The challenge
Hendi underscores the significant transformation underway in Saudi Arabia, driven by the nation’s economic diversification and digitalization, which is fueling a burgeoning demand for talent and innovation.
With a young, tech-savvy population, the Kingdom is ripe for entrepreneurial ventures, evidenced by success stories like Tabby, he explained.
The growing ecosystem, supported by incubators and successful exits, showcases the country’s potential as a hotbed for technology-driven businesses catering to consumers, enterprises, and government sectors.
The challenge now, according to him, is to further enhance this vibrant environment, making Saudi Arabia even more appealing for entrepreneurs.
He advocates for continued deregulation and the creation of conditions that encourage innovation, enabling entrepreneurs to develop products and services that resonate with consumers and drive economic growth.
The goal is to not only maintain the momentum but to elevate Saudi Arabia’s status as a premier destination for starting and scaling innovative ventures.
How to utilize funding
As VC growth continues to expand, startups are pressured to find efficient ways to use their funding to boost the overall ecosystem.
Al-Zubi shares his advice stating: “Imagine your funding as rocket fuel – you have to blast off without burning it all at once, right?”
“To fly long and far, focus on essentials. Build a stellar team, fuel growth with customer love, and lay a strong financial groundwork,” Al-Zubi added.
“Track your rocket’s path with data, experiment with new maneuvers, and stay tuned to the space weather. Be open with your investors, listen to wise advisors, and don’t be afraid to adjust your trajectory if the wind changes. Remember, long-term success is a marathon, not a sprint. Spend smart, learn fast, and keep your eyes on the stars,” he added.
Furthermore, Hendi advocates for meticulous planning in resource allocation, emphasizing the importance of understanding the market, timing for product launches, and strategic deployment of capital.
According to Hendi, startups must have a clear grasp of their financial roadmap, with a detailed understanding of expected expenditures over set timelines, to ensure sustained growth and success in the evolving economic environment.
