Oil prices near 2-year high

A roll-over of the deal between OPEC and other producers to cut oil production ‘looks certain,’ said one analyst. (Reuters)
Updated 04 November 2017
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Oil prices near 2-year high

AMSTERDAM: Oil prices rose on Friday, nearing their highest levels in more than two years, with buyers attracted by expectations of an extension to a global pact to cut output that has reduced oversupply.
Global benchmark Brent futures traded up 41 cents at $61.03 a barrel at 1:45 p.m. GMT, approaching levels around $61.70 a barrel last seen in July 2015. Brent has risen around 38 percent since its low in 2017 reached in June.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $54.78 a barrel, up 24 cents. WTI is around 30 percent above its 2017 low hit in June.
This week’s US Energy Information Agency (EIA) report on crude inventories and exports showed a large draw in US stocks, showing that market is rebalancing.
“Wednesday’s EIA report was bullish so the longs took profit then but now the uptrend is reasserting itself. Roll-over of the OPEC/non-OPEC deal looks certain and is also supportive,” said Tamas Varga, senior analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets at the end of November to discuss further action after it agreed nearly a year ago with Russia and other producers to hold back 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply.
Russia said on Thursday the deal, which is due to expire in March, could be extended if necessary but that a decision was not imminent.
While supplies are being withheld, demand is also rising, especially in China, whose roughly 9 million bpd of imports have surpassed those of the US to top the world’s crude importer list.
“China’s oil demand growth appears to be accelerating,” investment bank Jefferies said.
Physical oil prices are also rising. Saudi Aramco, the UAE’s ADNOC and Qatar Petroleum have all raised their crude prices for Asian buyers, with Aramco’s December premium over the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks now at the highest in three years.
Traders also eyed risks from ongoing financial troubles of OPEC-members Venezuela and its state oil company PDVSA.
The government and PDVSA owe some $1.6 billion in debt service and delayed interest payments by the end of the year, plus another $9 billion in bond servicing in 2018.
The next hard payment deadline for PDVSA is an $81 million bond payment that was due on Oct. 12 but on which the company delayed payment under a 30-day grace period. Failing to pay that on time would trigger a default, investors say.
— REUTERS


Gold slips over 1 percent on strong dollar, easing rate-cut bets

Updated 58 min 23 sec ago
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Gold slips over 1 percent on strong dollar, easing rate-cut bets

  • Chile central bank issues first gold purchase in decades
  • BMI expects silver to average $93/oz in 2026

Gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and diminishing hopes for a reduction in borrowing costs as the ongoing Iran war stoked inflation concerns.
Spot gold dipped 1.1 percent at $5,118.16 per ounce by 1:31 p.m. ET (1731 GMT). US gold futures for April delivery settled 1 percent lower at $5,125.80.
The dollar gained for a third consecutive session. The greenback is a competitive ‌safe-haven asset, and ‌a stronger US currency makes gold more ​expensive ‌for ⁠holders ​of other currencies.
“The ⁠higher dollar index, rising treasury yields and lack of interest-rate cuts are the negative factors, but the conflict in the Middle East has been generating some safe-haven flows,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
Two tankers were ablaze in Iraqi waters in an apparent escalation in Iranian attacks that have cut off ⁠Middle East energy supplies. In reaction, oil prices ‌rose sharply for the day.
Iran will avenge ‌the blood of its martyrs, keep ​the Strait of Hormuz closed and ‌attack US bases, new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said.
Higher crude ‌prices feed into inflation by raising transportation and production costs. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but high interest rates weigh on it by making yield-bearing assets more attractive.
“If they can prevent oil prices from climbing ‌further, gold should be in a good place... On the bullish side for gold, the main argument is ⁠that central ⁠bank buying and steady exchange-traded fund inflows, which have remained positive all year,” Streible added.
Chile’s central bank issued its first major gold purchase since at least 2000. In February, the bank boosted its gold reserves to $1.108 billion, up from $42 million in January, equivalent to 2.2 percent of total reserves.
Elsewhere, spot silver eased 1 percent to $84.90. Prices gained more than 146 percent last year.
Analysts at BMI wrote in a note they expect silver to average $93 per ounce in 2026, with strong investment demand consolidating the gains witnessed in 2025, and offsetting price-induced ​demand destruction in solar ​panels and jewelry.
Spot platinum lost 1.1 percent to $2,145.75, and palladium fell 1 percent to $1,620.86.