LONDON: The oil price hike to over $60 per barrel — $10 ahead since July — reflects underlying fundamentals such as robust global gross domestic product (GDP) growth and a better realignment of supply and demand, according to London-based analysts.
These underlying trends, more than instability in Kurdish regions of Iraq, were the real drivers of the price rise, the analysts said.
Oil has topped $60 a barrel for the first time in two years in the past few days, reinforcing views expressed recently by the head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that stability was returning to the sector.
Jason Gammel, oil analyst at London broker Jefferies, said internal research — using a variety of sources including data supplied by the International Energy Agency — showed demand exceeding supply for the first time in four years.
Gammel said “demand is ahead of supply, but I think for this to continue, the agreement by OPEC and non-OPEC countries to constrain production, which they struck in 2016, would have to be extended through 2018.”
That will not be confirmed until the next OPEC meeting in Vienna later this month.
Gammel said excess inventories were approaching the five-year average in the US, but were still 179 million barrels over that average in the wider OECD.
He does not expect OECD inventories to revert to the five-year average until late 2018 or even 2019. But he was generally “encouraged” by underlying demand growth potential driven by stronger global GDP.
Oswald Clint at London-based Bernstein Research said fundamentals were pushing up the price. In the short term, he was cautious because of the possibility of a US supply response.
“We are medium to long-term bullish, and expect the price to go back to the $70s range by 2020,” he said.
“We don’t see demand risks, we don’t see international supply response risks, we believe in the efficacy of OPEC curtailments and continue to see that helping, but if there is no US shale response, we could meet our price target sooner.”
Clint said the key to understanding the market was price elasticity — where lower prices pull in demand. “People didn’t expect that to last long after the 2014 correction, but cheap pricing stimulates demand,” he said. Reporting a surge in third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, BP Chief Finance Officer Brian Gilvary said,“inventory reductions and continued efforts from OPEC and non-OPEC countries to maintain cuts supported price gains.”
He added: “Oil demand over the remainder of the year is expected to remain robust. Overall we expect inventory levels to continue to edge lower, although there still remains a lot of uncertainty around the pace of that adjustment and around the longer-term outlook.”
At a recent forum in London, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said the global oil market was tightening at an “accelerating pace,” and cited a sharp reduction in worldwide inventories as evidence that last year’s agreement by producers to cut supply was having an effect.
He added: “OPEC stocks in September were about 160 million barrels above the five-year average, down from 340 million in January. There has been a massive drainage of oil tanks across all regions … a balanced oil market was now fully in sight.”
‘Oil demand outstrips supply for the first time in four years’
‘Oil demand outstrips supply for the first time in four years’
Saudi tourism employment surpasses 1m as hospitality sector expands
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s tourism workforce surpassed 1 million in the third quarter of 2025, underscoring the sector’s rapid expansion as the Kingdom continues to develop its hospitality infrastructure and visitor economy.
According to the latest Tourism Establishments Statistics report released by the General Authority for Statistics, the total number of employees in tourism activities reached approximately 1,009,691 in the third quarter of 2025, marking a 6.4 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024, when employment stood at 948,629.
The growth in employment comes alongside a significant rise in the number of licensed tourism hospitality facilities, which increased by 40.6 percent year on year to reach 5,622 in the third quarter. Of these, serviced apartments and other hospitality facilities accounted for 52.6 percent, while hotels represented 47.4 percent.
The robust growth reflected in the latest tourism statistics aligns directly with the goals of Vision 2030, as the Kingdom aims to double tourism’s gross domestic product contribution to 10 percent. The sector is also seeking to create 1.6 million jobs, and attract 150 million visitors annually by 2030.
The report showed that non-Saudi employees made up the majority of the tourism workforce, numbering 764,520 and accounting for 75.7 percent of the total. Saudi nationals employed in the sector reached 245,171, representing 24.3 percent of all tourism workers.
In terms of gender distribution, male employees dominated the sector with 875,658 workers, while female employees totaled 134,033, making up just 13.3 percent of the workforce.
Hotel performance showed positive momentum, with the average room occupancy rate rising to 49.1 percent during the quarter, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from 46.1 percent in the same period a year earlier.
In contrast, serviced apartments and other hospitality facilities experienced a slight dip in occupancy, recording 57.4 percent compared to 58 percent in the same quarter of 2024.
The average daily room rate in hotels decreased by 3.6 percent to SR341 ($90.9), down from SR354 in the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, serviced apartments and similar facilities saw their average daily rate rise by 4.1 percent to SR208, up from SR200 a year earlier.
The average length of stay in hotels was 4.1 nights, down 1 percent from 4.2 nights in the third quarter of 2024. For serviced apartments and other hospitality facilities, the average stay was 2.1 nights, reflecting a marginal decrease of 0.2 percent year-on-year.
The statistics draw on administrative records, surveys and secondary data to capture activity across the Kingdom’s tourism sector, GASTAT said.
