CAIRO: The only reason Egypt has even existed from ancient times until today is because of the Nile River, which provides a thin, richly fertile stretch of green through the desert.
Now, for the first time, the country fears a potential threat to that lifeline, and it seems to have no idea what to do about it.
Ethiopia is finalizing construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, its first major dam on the Blue Nile, and then will eventually start filling the giant reservoir behind it to power the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa.
Egypt fears that will cut into its water supply, destroying parts of its precious farmland and squeezing its population of 93 million people, who already face water shortages.
Dam construction on international rivers often causes disputes over the downstream impact.
But the Nile is different: Few nations rely so completely on a single river as much as Egypt does. The Nile provides over 90 percent of Egypt’s water supply. Almost the entire population lives cramped in the sliver of the Nile Valley. Around 60 percent of Egypt’s Nile water originates in Ethiopia from the Blue Nile, one of two main tributaries.
Egypt hardly gets by with the water it does have. It has one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, some 660 cubic meters a person. The strain is worsened by inefficiency and waste. With the population expected to double in 50 years, shortages are predicted to become severe even sooner, by 2025.
Egypt already receives the lion’s share of Nile waters: more than 55 billion of the around 88 billion cubic meters of water that flow down the river each year. It is promised that amount under agreements from 1929 and 1959 that other Nile nations say are unfair and ignore the needs of their own large populations.
Complicating the situation, no one has a clear idea what impact Ethiopia’s dam will actually have. Addis Ababa insists it will not cause significant harm to Egypt or Sudan downstream.
Much depends on the management of the flow and how fast Ethiopia fills its reservoir, which can hold 74 billion cubic meters of water. A faster fill means blocking more water, while doing it slowly would mean less reduction downstream.
Once the fill is completed, the flow would in theory return to normal. Egypt, where agriculture employs a quarter of the work force, is worried that the damage could be long-lasting.
One study by a Cairo University agriculture professor estimated Egypt would lose a staggering 51 percent of its farmland if the fill is done in three years. A slower, six-year fill would cost Egypt 17 percent of its cultivated land, the study claimed.
Internal government studies estimate that for every reduction of 1 billion cubic meters of water, 200,000 acres of farmland would be lost and livelihoods of 1 million people affected, since an average of five people live off each acre, a senior Irrigation Ministry official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the figures.
Other experts say the impact will be far smaller, even minimal. They say Egypt could suffer no damage at all if it and Ethiopia work together and exchange information, adjusting the rate of filling the reservoir to ensure that Egypt’s own massive reservoir on the Nile, Lake Nasser, stays full enough to meet its needs during the fill.
Unfortunately, that isn’t happening so far.
“To my knowledge, this situation is unique, particularly at this scale,” said Kevin Wheeler at the Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute. “I just can’t think of another case that has two large reservoirs in series without a plan on how to operate them together.”
Originating in Ethiopia, the Blue Nile flows into Sudan, where it joins with the White Nile, whose source is Lake Victoria in east Africa. From there it flows through Egypt to the Mediterranean.
For Ethiopia, the $5 billion dam is the realization of a long-delayed dream. Ethiopia’s infrastructure is among the least developed in the world, leaving most of its 95 million people without access to electricity. The hydroelectric dam is to have a capacity to generate over 6,400 Megawatts, a massive boost to the current production of 4,000 Megawatts.
The dam, around 60 percent complete, is likely to be finished this year or early next. Ethiopia has given little information on when it will start the fill or at what rate.
“We have taken into account (the dam’s) probable effects on countries like Egypt and Sudan,” Ethiopia’s water, irrigation and electricity minister, Sileshi Bekele, told journalists. He added that plans for the fills could be adjusted.
In a 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan agreed to contract an independent study of the dam’s impact and abide by it as they agree on a plan for filling the reservoir and operating the dam. But the deadline to complete the study has passed, and it has hardly begun, held up by differences over information sharing and transparency despite multiple rounds of negotiations among the three.
Frustration among Egyptian officials is starting to show.
In June, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri spoke of “difficult talks” and complained of delays in the impact study.
A high-ranking government official acknowledged there’s little Egypt can do. “We can’t stop it and in all cases, it will be harmful to Egypt,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.
Egyptian leaders in the past have rumbled about military action to stop any dam, but that option seems less likely after Egypt signed the Declaration of Principles.
Salman Salman, a Sudanese water expert, said Egypt has long had an attitude of “this is our river and no one can touch it.”
Now, he said, “Egypt is no longer the dominant force along the Nile. Ethiopia is replacing it.”
Dam upstream leaves Egypt fearing for its lifeline, the Nile
Dam upstream leaves Egypt fearing for its lifeline, the Nile
Prime minister’s visit to southern Lebanon promotes trust in state
- Temporary market officially opened by Nawaf Salam during 2-day tour
BEIRUT: Nearly 15 months on from Israeli airstrikes which reduced Nabatieh’s historic market to rubble during the war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, local civic leaders have stepped in to provide relief.
The war, which ended with a ceasefire in November 2024, left the southern Lebanese city’s centuries-old souk — a key commercial hub — devastated, displacing shop owners and crippling local trade.
In the absence of swift rebuilding by Hezbollah, which many affected residents had relied on, a group of non-partisan civic figures from Nabatieh launched an initiative about six months ago to establish a temporary alternative market.
The new market was officially opened on Sunday by Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam during a two-day tour of southern Lebanon.
The visit began in Tyre and Naqoura, continued through Bint Jbeil and Aitaroun, and included stops in devastated border villages before reaching Hasbaya and Marjayoun, and finally concluding in Nabatieh.
Nabatieh’s market has long been one of the region’s most important commercial landmarks.
It served as a vital transit point for traders moving goods between Syria, Lebanon, and Jerusalem in the early 20th century.
It evolved over time into a bustling local marketplace central to the city’s economy and daily life.
The initiative highlights growing frustration among some residents over unfulfilled promises for reconstruction aid from Hezbollah following the conflict’s destruction.
Salam’s opening of the temporary facility underscores government efforts to support community-led recovery amid broader rebuilding challenges in the war-affected region.
The temporary market aims to restore essential commercial activity while permanent reconstruction is underway.
Mahdi Sadeq, executive director of project overseer Nabatieh Emergency Rescue Service Association, told Arab News: “The project is a joint initiative by business people, self-employed professionals, and financiers, some of whom belong to non-Muslim sects.”
Sadeq, who is the son of Sheikh Abdul Hussein Sadeq, Nabatieh’s imam, added: “The project’s significance lies in the fact that it is not tied to any form of patronage that would burden traders with political loyalties.
“This initiative brings 85 owners of destroyed shops, many in dire economic conditions, back to work without imposing any obligations on them — unlike partisan grants.
“It is an initiative that saves the historic market, restores the pulse of life to the people, and sets us on the path to recovery.”
Sadeq added that the importance of the initiative was the fact that Nabatieh “has a moderate and independent religious” character “that has asserted its presence among all forces.”
He said: “No one has been able to eliminate it: not the Palestinian factions that were present in southern Lebanon in the 1960s and 1970s, nor the Lebanese partisan forces that came afterwards. It has remained centrist and has enjoyed broad popular support.
“If people in the south are left without pressure being exerted on them, they are eager to be embraced by the state. The state is the foundation, and everything else is the exception.
“At the same time, there is a degree of caution, because the state has yet to assert its presence after the war and has, in a way, passed judgment on people in advance. Had it moved quickly to take the initiative, it would have reaped greater dividends.”
Architect Samir Ali Ahmad, who is in charge of the implementation of the project, said that “the alternative market was built on Waqf-owned land donated by the imam of Nabatieh for a limited period of no more than four or five years, until the main market is rebuilt.”
Ali Ahmad added: “The new market consists of prefabricated rooms. It also includes courtyards and a Khan-style market complex featuring cafes, restaurants, rest areas, playgrounds, and a parking lot.
“Once the project is completed, these rooms can be donated to the Lebanese army or to the poorest families.
“This market will enable residents to remain on their land and secure their livelihoods without being forced into displacement.”
Engineer Lina Ezzeddine, who contributed to the project through fundraising efforts, said: “Priority was given to destitute individuals who were unable to fend for themselves.”
She noted that “some merchants had succeeded in rebuilding their shops, others had moved to different locations, while some had died of heart attacks due to the shock of what had occurred.”
Ezzeddine stressed that “donors did not consider the political affiliations of the merchants.”
She added: “The only condition was that no political party be allowed to interfere. And, indeed, no party did.
“The people have endured many tragedies, and the prime minister’s participation in the opening of the alternative market sends a clear message that the state stands with them.
“The people of the south love their land and are deeply attached to it. How could they not stand with the state?”
Salam’s visit, which has been marked by numerous public gatherings and meetings with local figures, reflects the people’s renewed support of the state following a devastating war that was the result of Hezbollah’s unilateral move to take decisions on war and peace out of the hands of official authorities.
The scenes witnessed during Salam’s tour of the south have carried exceptional significance.
The scattering of roses and rice, the ululations that have welcomed him, and the banners bearing welcoming phrases to “the state of law and citizenship” indicate the desire of the people of the south to return to the protection of state institutions.
An official source said that they had recognized that “the state is the only safe haven, while all slogans raised outside its framework have brought nothing but destruction, poverty, and displacement.”
Salam reiterated that “the state’s presence in the area is a message in the face of this massive destruction, to which we will never surrender.”
He added: “The state is here to stay, not to visit and leave. The state is responsible for every southern village and for all people, without discrimination.
“The cohesion of southern villages, regardless of their affiliations, protects the entire region.
“The government will continue to exert relief, reconstruction, and economic recovery efforts. The path to recovery and reconstruction is proceeding within an integrated framework.”
Salam said the state’s presence was “a clear message in the face of immense destruction.”
On Saturday, the first day of his tour, Salam announced that $360 million had been secured to help rebuild areas in southern Lebanon, adding that the government would boost reconstruction projects once funding was ensured.
