GENEVA: Global trade is rebounding strongly but risks remain, the World Trade Organization said on Thursday, with commerce expected to grow by 3.6 percent in 2017, well above last year’s 1.3 percent.
The forecast marks a sharp upward revision of the WTO’s April estimate, when it foresaw growth of 2.4 percent and in a range of 1.8-3.6 percent, due to a high level of political and economic uncertainty.
That range has now been narrowed to 3.2-3.9 percent, based on accelerating economic growth and rising import demand in China and the US, which spurred trade within Asia.
“The improved outlook for trade is welcome news, but substantial risks that threaten the world economy remain in place and could easily undermine any trade recovery,” WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said in a statement.
“These risks include the possibility that protectionist rhetoric translates into trade restrictive actions, a worrying rise in global geopolitical tensions and a rising economic toll from natural disasters.”
However, trade growth was becoming more synchronized across regions than it had been for many years, which could make the current trend self-reinforcing, he said.
The fast pace of 2017, which followed a very weak year, is unlikely to be sustained in 2018, with US and euro zone monetary policy expected to tighten and China likely to rein in easy credit to stop its economy from overheating, the WTO said.
“All of these factors should contribute to a moderation of trade growth in 2018 to around 3.2 percent (the full range of the estimate being from 1.4 percent to 4.4 percent),” it said.
The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth, which traditionally ran at about 2:1 but has slumped to about 1:1 in the decade since the financial crisis, should rise this year, with trade growing 1.3 times faster than the global economy, it said.
WTO says global trade to grow 3.6% this year
WTO says global trade to grow 3.6% this year
Closing Bell: Saudi main market closes the week in red at 10,526
RIYADH: Saudi equities ended Thursday’s session modestly lower, with the Tadawul All Share Index slipping 14.63 points, or 0.14 percent, to close at 10,526.09.
The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also declined 3.66 points, or 0.26 percent, to 1,389.66. In contrast, the parallel market outperformed, as Nomu jumped 237.72 points, or 1.02 percent, to close at 23,430.93.
Market breadth on the main market remained tilted to the downside, with 156 stocks ending lower against 99 gainers.
Trading activity eased further, with volumes reaching 80.46 million shares and total traded value amounting to SR1.66 billion ($442 million).
On the movers’ board, Saudi Industrial Export Co. led the gainers, rising 6.6 percent to SR2.10, followed by Consolidated Grunenfelder Saady Holding Co., which advanced 6.43 percent to SR9.60.
Raoom Trading Co. climbed 4.36 percent to SR61.05, while Astra Industrial Group gained 4.35 percent to close at SR139. Riyadh Cables Group Co. added 3.77 percent to end the session at SR135.00.
On the downside, Methanol Chemicals Co. topped the losers’ list, falling 5.96 percent to SR7.41.
Flynas Co. retreated 5.43 percent to SR61.00, while Leejam Sports Co. dropped 5 percent to close at SR100.80.
Alramz Real Estate Co. slipped 4.64 percent to SR55.50, and Almasane Alkobra Mining Co. declined 4.55 percent to SR84.00.
On the announcement front, ACWA Power said it has completed the financial close for the Ras Mohaisen First Water Desalination Co., a reverse osmosis desalination project with a capacity of up to 300,000 cubic meters per day, alongside associated potable water storage facilities totaling 600,000 cubic meters in Saudi Arabia’s Western Province.
The project was financed through a consortium of local and international banks, with total funding of SR2.07 billion and a tenor of up to 29.5 years, while ACWA Power holds an effective 45 percent equity stake.
Shares of ACWA Power ended the session at SR185.90, up SR0.2, or 0.11 percent.
Meanwhile, Consolidated Grunenfelder Saady Holding Co. announced the sign-off of a customized solutions project with Saudi Aramco Nabors Drilling Co., valued at SR166.0 million excluding VAT.
The 24-month contract covers the sale and maintenance of field camp facilities, with the financial impact expected to begin from the first quarter of 2026.
