BAGHDAD: Despite the recapture of swathes of territory from Daesh, the conflicts in Iraq and Syria are far from over as their governments face major political challenges, experts warn.
In July, the terrorists lost control of Iraq’s second city Mosul in a major setback three years after declaring a “caliphate” straddling the two countries.
Across the border around half of Daesh’s de facto Syrian capital Raqqa has been retaken by US-backed fighters.
But divisions across political, religious and ethnic lines will again rise to the surface in Iraq after the extremist group is driven out of its last bastions, said Mathieu Guidere, an expert on terrorist organizations.
A month before Iraq declared the liberation of Mosul, the country’s autonomous Kurdish region announced plans to proceed with a referendum on statehood in September.
The idea was not new but its timing was criticized by Baghdad, which opposes Kurdish independence, and by Washington, coming as it did with the anti-Daesh campaign still unfinished.
Analysts said the referendum is one of the many challenges facing the Iraq government along with the presence of a Shiite paramilitary force in Sunni-majority areas and the fate of minorities such as the Yazidis.
How the government deals with these thorny issues will determine whether it succeeds in a post-IS era, experts said.
The terrorist group “is the illustration — violent, long and complex — of the dystrophy that reigns in Iraq,” said Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou, professor of international history at Geneva’s Graduate Institue.
Ould Mohamedou advocates a “new national covenant” for Iraq that would allow the Shiite-dominated government to gain the trust of the Sunni population and other minorities, particularly in the northern Mosul region.
At the same time the government will also have to skilfully deal with the paramilitary Hashed Al-Shaabi umbrella organization which is dominated by Iran-backed Shiite militias.
Some of the components within Hashed Al-Shaabi, which battled Daesh in Iraq, have for years been sending fighters to support the Syrian regime in its conflict with various rebel groups.
Even as leaders in both Iraq and Syria savour the setbacks inflicted by their forces on Daesh, they still need to examine the reasons that led to the formidable rise of the jihadist group.
After declaring “victory over brutality and terrorism” in Mosul, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi said there were “lessons to be learned” to ensure his country never again falls into the grip of Daesh.
“Huge mistakes have been made,” he said.
Syrian President Bashar Assad also faces huge challenges in the country’s multi-sided war, despite his forces being backed by allies Russia, Iran and the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah in the battle against terrorists and rebels.
Daesh is steadily losing chunks of Raqqa to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed Arab-Kurdish alliance which broke into the northern city in June.
A Russian-backed government offensive has also targeted IS forces in the central Syrian desert.
Analysts said that if Raqqa falls, the Kurdish fighters that dominate the SDF could clash with regime troops.
Assad “does not want an autonomous administration” taking control of Raqqa, said Syria expert and geographer Fabrice Balanche.
Ould Mohamedou said the war in Syria “goes beyond the question of Daesh,” having erupted six years ago with peaceful anti-government protests that were brutally put down by the regime.
“In the name of the fight against terrorism, more and more Western governments have closed their eyes to the massacres perpetrated by the Syrian regime,” he said.
The war in Syria has killed hundreds of thousands of people while millions more have been displaced in the two countries.
Rebuilding infrastructure and restoring stability to allow the displaced to return home will be a massive challenge.
The UN has said the level of destruction in Mosul alone is one of the largest and most complex challenges it has faced.
Unless all these challenges are tackled, Daesh terrorists driven out of territory in Syria and Iraq could re-emerge as a more brutal and formidable force.
For Daesh “the key words now are reorganization and redeployment,” said Guidere.
Ould Mohamedou said that even if IS is defeated in Syria and Iraq “it will bounce back elsewhere and... with a new look.”
Conflicts in Syria, Iraq far from over despite Daesh setbacks
Conflicts in Syria, Iraq far from over despite Daesh setbacks
Hundreds mourn in Syria’s Homs after deadly mosque bombing
- Officials have said the preliminary investigations indicate explosive devices were planted inside the mosque but have not yet publicly identified a suspect
HOMS: Hundreds of mourners gathered Saturday despite rain and cold outside of a mosque in the Syrian city of Homs where a bombing the day before killed eight people and wounded 18.
The crowd gathered next to the Imam Ali ibn Abi Talib Mosque in the Wadi Al-Dhahab neighborhood, where the population is predominantly from the Alawite minority, before driving in convoys to bury the victims.
Officials have said the preliminary investigations indicate explosive devices were planted inside the mosque but have not yet publicly identified a suspect.
A little-known group calling itself Saraya Ansar Al-Sunna claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement posted on its Telegram channel, in which it indicated that the attack intended to target members of the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam whom hard-line Islamists consider to be apostates.
The same group had previously claimed a suicide attack in June in which a gunman opened fire and then detonated an explosive vest inside a Greek Orthodox church in Dweil’a, on the outskirts of Damascus, killing 25 people as worshippers prayed on a Sunday.
A neighbor of the mosque, who asked to be identified only by the honorific Abu Ahmad (“father of Ahmad“) out of security concerns, said he was at home when he heard the sound of a “very very strong explosion.”
He and other neighbors went to the mosque and saw terrified people running out of it, he said. They entered and began trying to help the wounded, amid blood and scattered body parts on the floor.
While the neighborhood is primarily Alawite, he said the mosque had always been open to members of all sects to pray.
“It’s the house of God,” he said. “The mosque’s door is open to everyone. No one ever asked questions. Whoever wants to enter can enter.”
Mourners were unable to enter the mosque to pray Saturday because the crime scene remained cordoned off, so they prayed outside.
Some then marched through the streets chanting “Ya Ali,” in reference to the Prophet Muhammad’s cousin and son-in-law whom Shiite Muslims consider to be his rightful successor.
