New UK govt to be more ‘timid’ in Gulf dealings – LSE professor

LONDON: The UK’s new coalition government will likely be more “timid” and “risk-adverse” in its involvement in the Gulf region, a London-based professor has said.
British Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday announced a minority government, backed by a small Northern Irish party, after losing her Conservative Party’s parliamentary majority in a snap election.
The coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party, which has 10 seats in Northern Ireland, is sufficient to form a government.
But Professor Toby Dodge, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, said it would be one that is more cautious and sensitive to potential problems in its dealings with the Gulf region.
“You go into a minority government in coalition… and it makes them by their very nature much more timid, much more worrying about controversy. And so that is where we are,” Dodge told Arab News.
May has formed strong ties with regional countries, and visited Saudi Arabia earlier this year. Her Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, when he was mayor of London, once described the UK capital as the “eighth emirate” due to its business ties with the UAE.
But a minority government would not be able to be so bold in the Gulf region, notably when it comes to arms sales, said Dodge.
“Instead of a triumphant and strengthened British prime minister, driving closer trade relations, it will be a weakened minority prime minister struggling to stay in power. That clearly reduces her room for maneuver, and I think hugely heightens an already high fear of controversy.”
That said, Dodge said there was a historic “warmth” between the GCC and the British, something he sees remaining.
Britain is due to start negotiations to withdraw from the EU next week, with some expecting a possible free-trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to follow the Brexit.
Dodge said that such a move would not be politically controversial — but perhaps difficult given all the other pressures on the government.
“I can see that going forward. But even if (May) had won a 100-seat majority, Brexit negotiations would have sucked all of the oxygen out of that government.”
“Given that she has to keep a coalition together, and then indulge in Brexit negotiations in a profoundly politically weak situation, I think getting the bandwidth, energy and focus to get a quick free-trade deal with the GCC is almost impossible.”