DUBAI: Qatar Airways, the second-biggest carrier in the Arabian Gulf, will face tough operational and financial headwinds as a result of restrictions placed on it by several other Arab nations, and the pressure will grow the longer the diplomatic fracture goes on, aviation analysts said.
All flights between four countries — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt — and Qatar are cancelled for an indefinite period from June 6, and Qatar Airways flights will not be allowed to fly over the airspace of those four nations.
Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research consultancy in London, said: “Qatar Airways will be hit hardest since it will have to reroute flights (that previously flew) over Saudi Arabia and the UAE on its long-haul missions — adding fuel, time and costs. Equally, its narrow-body fleet will end up parked at Doha, and ramp space there is not exactly plentiful — so again, they will have to redeploy them somewhere, if at all possible.”
Citibank, the American financial giant, said: “Loss of routes and the requirement to detour neighbors’ airspace could have a significant long-term impact on Qatar Airways business.”
That was echoed by John Strickland, independent aviation expert at JLS Consulting. “Much depends on how long (the dispute) goes on. We have not heard the final story yet. But the longer it goes the worse it is for Qatar,” Strickland told Arab News.
“The ban on ‘in’ and ‘out’ flights will obviously have an immediate impact, but the restrictions also inhibit operational flexibility on overflights through the other countries. Qatar files to Europe, Africa and the Americas, and all are affected by the ban on airspace in the region.”
Qatar seemed on Monday to have already begun avoiding the airspace of the countries that imposed the ban. Social media websites showed air maps of Qatar Airways planes en route to the west flying over the Arabian Gulf, heading towards Iran and Iraq, before turning westward toward Europe and America.
Strickland such operational adjustments would become more problematic. “Some alternative routings will be much more difficult. For example, routes to South America have to go over Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Rerouting will bring its own clear challenges. It may not be possible to fly nonstop, and then Qatar will have to think about new refueling facilities on the ground.”
He said that the restrictions could also put a brake on Qatar’s ambitious aviation expansion plans. “Qatar Airways has been a carrier in expansive mode, operating from a new state-of-the-art airport. The restrictions will have a significant effect on all that.”
Other Gulf airlines will also feel the effect, though to a more limited degree, Strickland said.
“Of course, not flying to Doha means passengers will have to find alternative connections to get to and from there. That won’t be cheap or easy,” he said.
“The longer this spat lasts, the more damaging it will be for everyone — and it will be passengers who suffer most,” he added.
The latest turbulence comes after a year of challenges for the Gulf aviation business, with testing competitive conditions compounded by security fears in the region and in Europe, as well as the laptop ban first imposed on some regional airports by the American authorities.
But Ahmad does not believe the recent problems marked the end of the “super connector” model adopted by Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.
“There is simply too much demand going through hubs like Dubai for traffic to suddenly halt. And let us face it, there has been no cataclysmic move that would hurt demand; even the laptop ban has not put off other travelers connecting through places like Dubai,” Ahmad said.
“While some may view the region as risky, notably carriers from the US that do not serve the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), overall, passengers will still fly on as normal. There is no security reason nor any other factor that negatively acts as a deterrent. The Qatar spat is bilateral, so the impact is limited to those who serve Doha and to Qatar Airways,” he added.
Qatar Airways faces tough headwinds due to new restrictions
Qatar Airways faces tough headwinds due to new restrictions
The hidden side of clean power: why grid integration matters
- Exploring the predator’s role in the region’s heritage and ecosystem
RIYADH: As Saudi Arabia expands solar, wind, and battery projects, a critical piece of the sustainability puzzle often goes unseen: grid integration.
Before renewable plants can deliver power, engineers must ensure the grid remains stable, safe, and efficient under new loads. Integrating renewables into existing systems has become one of the toughest — and most crucial — steps toward building a truly sustainable energy network.
Engineers widely consider the electricity grid the largest and most complex machine ever built. As more renewable capacity comes online, managing it is becoming as much a data challenge as an energy one.
“A big share of Saudi Arabia’s electricity is generated from renewables and more projects are connected to the grid each year. This shift changes how the electricity grid is managed on a day-to-day basis,” Saeed Al-Zahrani, general manager of data enterprise storage leader NetApp in Saudi Arabia, told Arab News.
“To add context, traditional generation can usually be adjusted in a controlled way. Wind and solar, however, move with conditions such as cloud cover, dust, temperature and wind speed, meaning supply can rise and fall quickly,” he said.
In this environment, grid integration is less about whether enough electricity can be produced and more about whether operators can see and respond to changes across the network fast enough to maintain stability.
Frequency, voltage, congestion, and reserve margins all become more dynamic. Real-time measurements, accurate forecasting, asset status updates, and weather intelligence must come together into a reliable, unified system view.
“From NetApp’s perspective, this is where the data foundation matters most, because the grid can only act confidently when the information behind the decisions is timely, governed, and reliable,” Al-Zahrani said.
Under Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia aims to generate 50 percent of its energy from renewables — an ambitious target that introduces new technical and operational challenges. Weather variability, cyber threats, and system coordination can all affect grid stability.
“Every device that operates under this control regime that’s connected to the grid is digital nowadays. You have smart inverters, you have sensors, you have energy management systems, and all those devices and systems are potential entry points for attackers,” Charalambos Konstantinou, a professor at KAUST, told Arab News.
His lab focuses on maintaining reliable and secure power infrastructure, developing faster and smarter control algorithms capable of responding to sudden changes in the power system.
“This is what we’re working to make sure that those algorithms remain robust. They remain resilient. They remain secure, even if something, maybe an extreme weather event, or a cyber attack, is aiming to disrupt them,” he said.
Rapid digitalization, however, can create vulnerabilities if security measures do not keep pace. In 2012, Aramco experienced the Shamoon attack, a computer virus that affected around 30,000 workstations.
“When you scale fast, security practices typically lack behind deployment, and this is essentially what we focus a lot in my group: making sure that internet-connected or digital devices cannot be used as an entry point to destabilizing the grid,” Konstantinou said.
One particularly concerning threat involves load-altering attacks, which can disrupt power systems without requiring deep penetration of the grid itself.
“If an attacker is able to control a large amount of what we call internet connected high voltage devices — think HVAC systems, air conditioning systems, water heaters, electric vehicle chargers — and is able to switch them on and off at the same time, simultaneously, then he or she can create a certain imbalance between generation and demand, and then the grid (becomes) very difficult to handle,” he said.
Such disruptions could potentially trigger widespread blackouts.
Beyond cybersecurity risks, the physical environment also presents challenges. Saudi Arabia’s relatively consistent weather can be an advantage for renewable energy production, but factors such as dust accumulation on solar panels and thermal stress on inverters can still affect performance.
Testing technologies under local conditions — including extreme heat, network behavior, and the mix of generation assets — is essential before large-scale deployment. Equally important are intelligent coordination frameworks that allow flexible energy assets to work together while optimizing energy use across industries.
Renewable-heavy grids across Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries increasingly depend on real-time data from SCADA systems, substation automation, and weather monitoring to balance supply and demand. While these continuous data flows improve efficiency, they also introduce new risks, including potential system disruption and data manipulation.
Vasily Dyagilev, regional director for the Middle East, Russia and CIS at Check Point Software Technologies Ltd., highlighted the scale of these vulnerabilities.
“In Saudi Arabia, 58 percent of organizations have experienced information disclosure vulnerabilities, while remote code execution and authentication bypass remain significant threats. The complexity of managing legacy operational technology networks alongside modern cloud-based systems and third-party integrations makes it difficult for utilities to maintain full visibility over their risk landscape.
“The region has also seen high-profile incidents where attacks on SCADA systems led to operational disruptions, highlighting the fragility of critical infrastructure. Effective exposure management, including continuous vulnerability discovery and prioritized remediation based on operational risk, is now recognized as essential for maintaining grid stability and protecting the integrity of real-time data streams.”
Alongside cyber and operational risks, uncertainty in weather patterns remains a key variable in renewable power generation.
Omar Knio, another professor at KAUST, studies how atmospheric processes influence renewable energy systems through uncertainty quantification and climate modeling. Dust particles originating in the Arabian Peninsula, for instance, can travel thousands of kilometers and influence weather patterns across South Asia.
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“Phenomena at tiny little scales end up, through teleconnections, making very important contributions to weather patterns and to the climate as far as renewables themselves, because these phenomena affect the solar and wind potentials, they’re extremely important to predict accurately,” Knio said.
“The presence of dust in the atmosphere and cloud cover affect the output of solar panels or solar plants, and similar phenomena happen to wind, and that's why they are really challenging. It's important to be able to predict them as accurately as we can.”
Maintaining a stable renewable grid requires both short-term and long-term forecasting. Hourly predictions are essential for balancing supply and demand, while longer-term projections help planners prepare infrastructure and storage.
Artificial intelligence is increasingly helping researchers build models that forecast weather patterns, simulate thermal behavior in buildings, and analyze industrial energy use. In areas where detailed physical models are limited, AI also helps uncover patterns in human behavior and electricity consumption.
“An example is power demand, consumer behavior, or changes in patterns that have to do with the day of the week, whether it's a weekend, a holiday season, whether it's during harsh weather, or it's during Ramadan: how do these patterns change? And artificial intelligence is really bringing the capability for us to represent and forecast these very complex phenomena,” Knio said.
As renewable energy penetration approaches higher levels, the system becomes more sensitive to fluctuations and extreme events.
“There comes a point where we start having a very dramatic rise in the need for storage capabilities. And the important aspect of why our fuel is important. We can make them cleaner, but they’re wonderful in the sense that they are plentiful right now. They are cheap, but more importantly, they are quite economical to store after. After fuels come nuclear power. So it’s really that storage capability. As we approach 100 percent, the need for storage becomes extremely heightened,” Knio said.
