LONDON: The largest global banks in London plan to move about 9,000 jobs to the continent in the next two years, public statements and information from sources show, as the exodus of finance jobs starts to take shape.
Last week, Standard Chartered and JPMorgan were the latest global banks to outline plans for their European operations after Brexit. They are among a growing number of lenders pushing ahead with plans to move operations from London.
Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said in an interview on Friday that London’s growth as a financial center could “stall” as a result of the upheaval caused by Brexit.
Thirteen major banks including Goldman Sachs, UBS and Citigroup have given an indication of how they would bulk up their operations in Europe to secure market access to the EU’s single market when Britain leaves the bloc.
Talks with financial authorities in Europe have been underway for several months but banks are increasingly firming up plans to move staff and operations.
“It is full speed ahead. We are in full motion with our contingency planning,” said the head of investment banking at one global bank in London. “There is no waiting.”
Although the moves would represent about 2 percent of London’s finance jobs, Britain’s tax revenues could be hit if it loses rich taxpayers working in financial services.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) — a think tank focused on budget issues — said in a report on Thursday the rest of the population would have to pay more if top earners move.
The exact number of jobs to leave will depend on the deal the British government strikes with the EU. Some politicians say bankers have exaggerated the threat to the economy from Brexit.
The plans of large banks such as Credit Suisse and Bank of America and many smaller banks are still unknown.
Frankfurt and Dublin are emerging as the biggest winners from the relocation plans. Six of the 13 banks favor opening a new office or moving the bulk of their operations to Frankfurt. Three of the banks will look to expand in Dublin.
Deutsche Bank said on April 26 up to 4,000 UK jobs could be moved to Frankfurt and other locations in the EU as a result of Brexit — the largest potential move of any bank.
JPMorgan last week announced plans to move hundreds of roles to three European cities in the next two years. This is still significantly lower than the 4,000 figure JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon first estimated before the vote.
Estimates for possible finance-related job losses from Brexit are on a broad range from 4,000 to 232,000, according to separate reports by Oliver Wyman and Ernst & Young.
Banks are treading carefully, enacting two-stage contingency plans, to avoid losing nervous London-based staff as they work out how many jobs will have to eventually move.
This suggests that the numbers could potentially rise further depending on what deal is eventually negotiated between the EU and Britain.
This first phase involves small numbers to make sure the requisite licenses, technology and infrastructure are in place, while the next will depend on the long-term strategy of a bank’s European business.
The Bank of England (BoE) has given finance companies until July 14 to set out their plans.
One senior bank executive at a large British bank said forcing companies to make a plan makes it more likely that they will follow through.
“It is an unintended consequence, but the more and more preparation you do the more likely you are to execute those plans,” the executive said.
HSBC Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver said this week that the bank’s previous estimate that around 1,000 staff would move to Paris following Britain’s vote to leave the EU, was based on a “hard Brexit” scenario.
Most banks are working on the assumption that this is the most likely outcome of the separation talks and would involve losing access to the single market with no special financial services deal and no transition period.
9,000 finance jobs on the line due to Brexit
9,000 finance jobs on the line due to Brexit
US pump prices surge as Iran war upends global energy supply
- Fuel prices jump over 10 percent as oil prices surge
- Analysts predict further price rises due to market conditions
MARIETTA/NEW YORK : US retail gasoline and diesel prices are soaring as the US-Israel war with Iran constrains oil and fuel exports, which could be a political test for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party ahead of midterm elections in November.
Fuel prices jumped more than 10 percent this week as oil rose above $90 a barrel, its highest in years, adding pain at the pump for consumers already strained by inflation.
Trump on Thursday shrugged off higher gasoline prices in an interview with Reuters, saying “if they rise, they rise.”
The president had vowed to lower energy prices and unleash US oil and gas drilling during his second term, but much of his tenure has been marked by volatility and uncertainty amid shifts in policies like tariffs and geopolitical turmoil.
The US is the world’s largest oil producer. It is a major exporter but also imports millions of barrels a day since it is the world’s largest oil consumer.
As of Friday, the national average prices for regular gasoline stood at $3.32 a gallon, up 11 percent from a week ago and the highest since September 2024, according to data from the motorists association AAA. Diesel was at $4.33, up 15 percent from a week ago, surging to the highest since November 2023.
Midwest, south feel the pinch
US motorists in parts of the Midwest and the South, including states that supported Trump, have seen some of the steepest increases in fuel costs since the conflict in Iran started.
In Georgia, a swing state, average retail gasoline prices rose 40.1 cents a gallon over the past week, according to fuel tracking site GasBuddy.
Andrenna McDaniel, a health care insurance worker in South Fulton, Georgia, said she was surprised to see prices skyrocket overnight.
“They jumped up so quickly,” she said on Friday, adding that she does not agree with the war at all.
McDaniel, a Democrat, said that for now she is only driving for the most important things, and feels lucky that she works from home so she does not have to drive as much as other people do. Georgia voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
Trump voter Richard Soule, 69, a US Air Force veteran and a retired firefighter, said a little pain at the pump is worth Trump’s efforts to protect America.
“When President Trump went in there and bombed out their nuclear, and they just thumbed their nose at it, I believe he did the right thing at the right time,” Soule said on Friday as he filled up his Ford F-150 truck in Marietta, Georgia.
Other states, including Indiana and West Virginia have seen prices rise by 44.3 cents and 43.9 cents, respectively.
Prices may rise further
More pain may be on the way, analysts said, as oil prices continue to trend upward. On Friday, US oil futures settled at $90.90 a barrel, up nearly $10 and the biggest single-day rise since April 2020.
“Given current market conditions, the national average price of gasoline could climb toward $3.50 to $3.70 per gallon in the coming days if oil continues rising and supply disruptions persist,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said.
The disruptions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade conduit, have boosted demand for US oil abroad, which in turn has driven up prices for domestic refiners too.
“The US has weaned itself off of its dependence on Middle Eastern crude, but obviously Asian refineries, and to a lesser extent, European refineries have not,” Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst with OPIS. “That’s what you’re seeing happen in the spot market, because the demand for US exports rise, and so the price rise.”
Seasonal factors could add further pressure. Gasoline prices typically go up in the spring and peak in the summer due to higher gasoline demand and production of summer-blend gasoline, which is more costly to produce. Diesel fuel saw an even more aggressive jump since Iran began retaliating against US and Israeli strikes, significantly disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Global diesel inventories have remained in tight supply due to heavy demand for heating and power generation during a prolonged winter in the US and other parts of the world and a structural tightness of refining capacity. Sticker prices of everything from food to furniture go up when the cost of diesel goes up, as the fuel is mainly used in freight transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and global shipping, analysts said.
“In a world where buzzword seems to be ‘affordability’, that is certainly not going to help,” Cinquegrana said.
