LONDON: The largest global banks in London plan to move about 9,000 jobs to the continent in the next two years, public statements and information from sources show, as the exodus of finance jobs starts to take shape.
Last week, Standard Chartered and JPMorgan were the latest global banks to outline plans for their European operations after Brexit. They are among a growing number of lenders pushing ahead with plans to move operations from London.
Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said in an interview on Friday that London’s growth as a financial center could “stall” as a result of the upheaval caused by Brexit.
Thirteen major banks including Goldman Sachs, UBS and Citigroup have given an indication of how they would bulk up their operations in Europe to secure market access to the EU’s single market when Britain leaves the bloc.
Talks with financial authorities in Europe have been underway for several months but banks are increasingly firming up plans to move staff and operations.
“It is full speed ahead. We are in full motion with our contingency planning,” said the head of investment banking at one global bank in London. “There is no waiting.”
Although the moves would represent about 2 percent of London’s finance jobs, Britain’s tax revenues could be hit if it loses rich taxpayers working in financial services.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) — a think tank focused on budget issues — said in a report on Thursday the rest of the population would have to pay more if top earners move.
The exact number of jobs to leave will depend on the deal the British government strikes with the EU. Some politicians say bankers have exaggerated the threat to the economy from Brexit.
The plans of large banks such as Credit Suisse and Bank of America and many smaller banks are still unknown.
Frankfurt and Dublin are emerging as the biggest winners from the relocation plans. Six of the 13 banks favor opening a new office or moving the bulk of their operations to Frankfurt. Three of the banks will look to expand in Dublin.
Deutsche Bank said on April 26 up to 4,000 UK jobs could be moved to Frankfurt and other locations in the EU as a result of Brexit — the largest potential move of any bank.
JPMorgan last week announced plans to move hundreds of roles to three European cities in the next two years. This is still significantly lower than the 4,000 figure JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon first estimated before the vote.
Estimates for possible finance-related job losses from Brexit are on a broad range from 4,000 to 232,000, according to separate reports by Oliver Wyman and Ernst & Young.
Banks are treading carefully, enacting two-stage contingency plans, to avoid losing nervous London-based staff as they work out how many jobs will have to eventually move.
This suggests that the numbers could potentially rise further depending on what deal is eventually negotiated between the EU and Britain.
This first phase involves small numbers to make sure the requisite licenses, technology and infrastructure are in place, while the next will depend on the long-term strategy of a bank’s European business.
The Bank of England (BoE) has given finance companies until July 14 to set out their plans.
One senior bank executive at a large British bank said forcing companies to make a plan makes it more likely that they will follow through.
“It is an unintended consequence, but the more and more preparation you do the more likely you are to execute those plans,” the executive said.
HSBC Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver said this week that the bank’s previous estimate that around 1,000 staff would move to Paris following Britain’s vote to leave the EU, was based on a “hard Brexit” scenario.
Most banks are working on the assumption that this is the most likely outcome of the separation talks and would involve losing access to the single market with no special financial services deal and no transition period.
9,000 finance jobs on the line due to Brexit
9,000 finance jobs on the line due to Brexit
Saudi Arabia pulls in most of Partners for Growth $450m capital push
- Global private credit fund leans into region’s largest market for growth-stage technology financing
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has captured the vast majority of Partners for Growth’s capital deployed in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as the global private credit fund leans into what it sees as the region’s largest market for growth-stage technology financing.
The San Francisco-based firm has deployed about $450 million in commitments in the GCC, and “the vast majority of that is in Saudi,” said Armineh Baghoomian, managing director at the firm who also serves as head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and co-head of global fintech.
The company was one of the earliest lenders to Saudi fintech unicorn Tabby, and it’s clear the Kingdom is providing fertile territory for ongoing investments.
“We don’t target a specific country because of some other mandate. It’s just a larger market in the region, so in the types of deals we’re doing, it ends up weighing heavily to Saudi Arabia,” Baghoomian said.
Partners for Growth, which Baghoomian described as a global private credit fund focused on “growth debt solutions,” lends to emerging tech and innovation companies, particularly those that struggle to access traditional credit.
“We’re going into our 22nd year,” she said, tracing the strategy back to its roots in a Bay Area investment bank debt practice in the mid-1980s.
Today, the firm lends globally, she said, deploying capital where it sees fit across markets including Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, as well as Latin America and the GCC, where it has been active for about six years.
Shariah structures dominate PFG’s Gulf deals
In the Gulf, the firm’s structures are often shaped by local expectations. “Most of the deals we’ve done in the region are Shariah-compliant,” Baghoomian said.
“In terms of dollars we’ve deployed, they’re Shariah-structured,” she added.
“Usually it’s the entrepreneur who requires that, or requests it, and we’re happy to structure it,” Baghoomian said, adding that the firm also views Shariah structures as “a better security position in certain regions.”
Growth debt steps in where banks cannot
Baghoomian framed growth debt as a practical complement to equity for companies that have moved beyond the earliest stage but are not yet “bankable.”
She said: “The lower-cost bank type facilities don’t exist. There’s that gap.”
Baghoomian added that companies want to grow, “but they don’t want to keep selling big chunks of equity. That implies giving up control and ownership.”
For businesses with the fundamentals private credit providers look for, she said, debt can extend runway while limiting dilution.
“As long as they have predictable revenue, clear unit economics, and the right assets that can be financed, this is a nice solution to continue their path,” she added.
That role becomes more pronounced as equity becomes harder to raise at later stages, Baghoomian believes.
She pointed to a gap that “might be widening” around “series B-plus” fundraising, as later-stage investors become “more discriminating” about which deals they back.
Asset-heavy fintechs cannot scale on equity alone
For asset-heavy technology businesses, Baghoomian argued, debt is not just an option but a necessity.
She pointed to buy-now-pay-later platform Tabby as an example of a model built on funding working capital at scale.
“Tabby is an asset-heavy business,” she said. “They’re providing installment plans to consumers, but they still need to pay the merchant on day one. That’s capital-intensive. You need a lot of cash to do that.”
Equity alone, she added, would be structurally inefficient. “You would not want to just raise equity. The founders, employees, everyone would own nothing and lose a lot of control.”
We don’t target a specific country because of some other mandate. It’s just a larger market in the region, so in the types of deals we’re doing, it ends up weighing heavily to Saudi Arabia.
Armineh Baghoomian, PFG managing director and head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and co-head of global fintech
Baghoomian said those dynamics are common across other asset-intensive models, including lending platforms and businesses that trade in large inventories such as vehicles or property. “Those are businesses that inherently end up having to raise quite a bit of credit,” she said. Partners for Growth’s relationship with Tabby also reflects how early the firm can deploy capital when the structure is asset-backed. “We started with Tabby with $10 million after their seed round, and then we grew, and we continue to be a lender to them,” Baghoomian said.
“On the asset-backed side, we can go in quite early,” she said. “Most of the fintechs we work with are very early stage, post-seed, and then we’ll grow with them for as long as possible.”
As the market for private credit expands in the Gulf, Baghoomian emphasized discipline — both for lenders and borrowers.
For investors assessing startups seeking debt, she said the key is revenue quality and predictability, not just topline growth. “Revenue is one thing, but how predictable is it? How consistent is it? Is it growing?” she said. “This credit is not permanent capital. You have to pay it back. There’s a servicing element to it.”
Her advice to founders was more blunt: stress-test the downside before taking leverage.
“You have to do a stress test and ask: if growth slows by 30 to 40 percent, can I still service the debt? Can I still pay back what I’ve taken?” she said.
Baghoomian warned against chasing the biggest facility on offer. “Sometimes companies compete on how much a lender is providing them,” she said. “We try to teach founders: take as much as you need, but not as much as you can. You have to pay that back.”
Partners for Growth positions itself as an alternative to banks not only because many growth-stage companies cannot access bank financing, but because it can tailor structures to each business.
HIGHLIGHTS
• Partners for Growth positions itself as an alternative to banks not only because many growth-stage companies cannot access bank financing, but because it can tailor structures to each business.
• The firm lends globally deploying capital where it sees fit across markets including Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, as well as Latin America and the GCC, where it has been active for about six years.
One of Partners for Growth’s differentiators, Baghoomian said, is how bespoke its financing is compared with bank products.
“These facilities are very bespoke. They’re custom to each company and how they need to use the money,” she said, adding that the fund is not offering founders a rigid menu of standardized options.
“No two deals of ours look alike,” she said, framing that flexibility as especially important at the growth stage, when business needs can shift quickly.
That customization, she added, extends beyond signing. Baghoomian said the firm aims to structure facilities so companies can actually deploy capital without being constrained, adding: “We don’t want to handcuff you. We don’t want to constrain you in any way.”
As a company evolves, she said the financing can evolve too, because what works on day one often won’t fit nine months later.
“We’ll revise structures,” she said, describing flexibility as core to how private credit can serve fast-moving tech businesses.
She added that a global lender can also bring operating support and market pattern recognition, while still accounting for local nuance.
Baghoomian expects demand for private credit in the Gulf to keep rising. “They are going to require credit, for sure,” she said, pointing to the scale of new platforms and projects.
“I don’t see it shrinking,” she said, adding that Partners for Growth is seeing more demand and is in late-stage discussions with several companies, though she declined to name them.
PFG to stay selective despite rising competition
Competition among lenders has increased since the firm began deploying in the region, Baghoomian said, calling that “very healthy for the ecosystem.”
Most of what the firm does in the region is asset-backed, Baghoomian said, often through first warehouse facilities for businesses financing receivables or other tangible exposures, “almost always Shariah.”
Keeping Egypt on its watchlist
Beyond the Gulf, Baghoomian said the firm is monitoring Egypt closely, though macroeconomic volatility has delayed deployments.
“We looked at Egypt very aggressively a few years ago, and then the macro issues changed,” she said, adding that the firm continues to speak with companies in the country and track conditions.
Even as private credit becomes more common in the region, Baghoomian underscored that debt is not universally appropriate.
“Not every company should take a loan or credit,” she said. “You don’t take it just to take it. It should be getting you to the next milestone.”
