DAKAR: People who are driven to migrate by floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change come overwhelmingly from middle-income countries, not the poorest parts of the world, as is commonly believed, new research finds.
And those who move abroad due to natural disasters are likely to be highly educated, suggesting climate change could exacerbate “brain drain” from developing countries, according to Linguere Mously Mbaye, a consultant for the African Development Bank.
Very poor people cannot afford to migrate and the richest have other ways of coping such as accessing social services in the wake of disasters, she found.
There are no reliable estimates of the number of people who have migrated or will do so due to environmental changes. But forecasts range from 25 million to 1 billion globally by 2050, according to the International Organization for Migration.
The issue has garnered political attention amid a global refugee crisis, and led to growing calls to give people fleeing climate-linked disasters similar protections to political refugees under international law.
But the reality of climate migration is often misunderstood, said Mbaye, whose research was recently published by online database IZA World of Labor.
“People think we’ll have a whole bunch of people coming to rich countries due to climate change, but they overestimate (this),” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “If you look at the literature, it’s not that straightforward.”
Between 2008 and 2014, developing countries accounted for 95 percent of global displacement due to disasters, but 86 percent of those uprooted came from middle-income countries such as India, China and Pakistan, and only 9 percent from lower-income countries, she found.
On top of the misconception that climate migrants come from poor nations, people tend to assume that climate change causes people to move overseas when in reality, most move within their own countries or to neighboring ones, she said.
In Bangladesh, for example, researchers found that moderate flooding over more than a decade increased people’s likelihood of moving locally but made them less likely to migrate long-distance, Mbaye said.
But in places like sub-Saharan Africa, weather shifts that hurt farming can drive villagers to cities, which in turn may put a strain on urban jobs and fuel migration overseas.
Despite myriad warnings of displacement caused by climate change, the world remains unprepared to deal with the problem, experts said last month in a policy brief for the Group of 20 major economies, adding that international law and aid policies need urgent reform.
To prevent large-scale displacement, governments should fund infrastructure projects and social protection programs so that families can cope with climate shocks, experts said.
“Investing in resilience in source countries is absolutely crucial to helping people remain in place, which they often prefer,” said Shiloh Fetzek, a senior fellow at the US Center for Climate and Security.
“But migration shouldn’t be seen as a failure of resilience. Migration is often an important part of resilience,” she added.
Climate change could spur “brain drain” from developing world — researcher
Climate change could spur “brain drain” from developing world — researcher
Tarique Rahman-led BNP set to form Bangladesh’s next government after major election win
- Jamaat-e-Islami, banned during Hasina’s government, won 68 seats
- Majority of Bangladeshis endorsed sweeping reforms in national referendum
DHAKA: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, led by Tarique Rahman, is set to form the country’s next government after securing a more than two-thirds majority in the first elections since a student-led uprising in 2024 ousted ex-prime minister, Sheikh Hasina.
The BNP has won at least 209 seats out of the 299 contested, according to the latest election results released by the Election Commission on Friday, paving the way for Rahman to become the country’s next prime minister.
Jamaat-e-Islami, banned during Hasina’s 15 years in power, has registered its best performance yet, winning at least 68 seats and emerging as the main opposition party.
The National Citizen Party, which was born out of the 2024 protests, was in third place with six seats, including for its leader Nahid Islam, while Hasina’s Awami League was barred from participating in the elections.
The majority of Bangladeshis also reportedly voted “yes” in a national referendum on the “July National Charter” that was held alongside the general vote on Thursday.
Named after the month when the uprising that toppled Hasina began, the charter is aimed at achieving sweeping democratic reforms to prevent authoritarian administrations, including term limits for premiers, stronger presidential powers and greater judicial independence, while also proposing increased representation of women in parliament.
The BNP-led government is likely to follow the commitments made under the charter, said Prof. A.S.M. Amanullah, vice chancellor of the National University in Dhaka, adding that the implementation of the July charter was also included in the party’s election manifesto that covers reform of the state and rebuilding of the economy.
“Mr. Tarique Rahman is a highly trained politician, highly sensitive politician, and he takes decisions based on facts. I believe he prepared himself to run this country locally and play a role internationally,” Amanullah told Arab News.
Rahman is the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Ziaur Rahman. He returned to Bangladesh late last year after nearly two decades of self-imposed exile in the UK, and assumed BNP’s leadership days later, following his mother’s death from a prolonged illness.
In an interview with Arab News earlier this week, the 60-year-old pledged to pursue accountability for the former leadership and meet the political and economic expectations of the youth movement that brought about the change.
The new government is likely to be a mix of young and old politicians, Amanullah said, with Jemaat-e-Islami set to balance out the BNP’s rule.
“This is a very good size of opposition to press the issues or to challenge the government on different issues, different policies and decisions of the government. I’m hopeful about Jemaat,” he said.
“The way the people voted for these major two parties, the BNP and Jemaat, I think if they could work jointly, Bangladesh should see a stable political situation in the near future.”
Mohiuddin Ahmad, a political analyst and researcher, described Jemaat-e-Islami as “the most organized party” in Bangladesh and that it would therefore play an “instrumental” role as the opposition party.
Voter turnout averaged 59.44 percent, the EC said, with many Bangladeshis considering this week’s vote as their first “free and fair” election after more than 17 years.
“Such a result of an election we haven’t actually experienced before,” Muhiuddin Iqbal, a history student at Dhaka University, told Arab News.
“The festive feeling has not gone yet, so we’re very much excited about it and hopeful for the future.”
